US

Tariffs

Question A:

Tripling existing import taxes on Chinese steel and aluminum products would lead to measurably higher employment in the US steel industry over the next five years.

Question B:

Tripling the tariffs would lead to measurably higher steel and aluminum prices for American producers and measurably higher finished-good prices for American consumers.

Question C:

The gains for the American economy from tripling the tariffs would measurably outweigh the losses.

 
Articles

Evidence Based Policymaking, or Policy Making the Evidence

Evidence based policymaking is something which, in public at least, most public servants now aspire to. Think tanks on both sides of the Atlantic have taken to using the term over the last two decades to describe policymaking which is rooted in evidence, data, and research rather than driven by ideological reasoning. As one might […] 
Europe

Capital Markets Union

This European survey examines (a) Creation of a more unified capital market in Europe - with a common pool of capital, a single rule book and a strengthened European Securities and Markets Authority, comparable to the US Securities and Exchange Commission – would lead to a substantial shift in the balance of companies listing their shares in the EU vis-a-vis the US; (b) Creation of a more unified capital market in Europe - with a common pool of capital, a single rule book and a strengthened European Securities and Markets Authority, comparable to the US Securities and Exchange Commission – would substantially increase the availability of funding for start-ups and growing companies across the EU 
Articles

Testing Times

It is, as the saying goes, difficult to make predictions; especially about the future. That may have always been the case but the issue was especially acute in the spring and summer of 2020. The covid pandemic and the associated lock-down and stay-at-home orders designed to constrain the growth of the virus forced widespread changes […] 
Finance

Passive Investors and US Banks

This Finance survey examines: Regulator Probes BlackRock and Vanguard Over Huge Stakes in U.S. Banks – The WSJ reports that ‘The FDIC is scrutinizing whether the index-fund giants are sticking to passive roles when it comes to their investments in U.S. banks.' (a) The exemption of passive asset managers from banking rules - such as needing permission when they acquire shares above the 10% threshold - generates measurable risks to the accomplishment of the FDIC's mission 
Articles

AI + EU = ?

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is the hot new thing. Any firm which can plausibly claim any exposure to the rapidly developing technology has seen the price of its equity soar over the past year as investors seek to cash in. The most booster-ish proponents of AI see it as a game changer for economic growth, ushering […] 
Articles

Shorting-selling Is As Old As Financial Markets

Short-selling has a long history and so too do government bans on actively betting on asset prices falling. Indeed short-selling, and government interventions to prevent it, are just about as old as the very concept of joint-stock companies. The Dutch East India Company, or Verenigde Oostindische Compagnie (VOC), was established in 1602 by an amalgamation […]