US

Short Selling

Bans on the short selling of financial securities, such as stocks and government bonds, lead to prices that are further, on average, from their fundamental values.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
I think this would depend on the type of mispricing. E.g., heterogeneous priors with shortselling can lead to wide swings in prices.
Alesina
Alberto Alesina
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale
Agree
2
Bio/Vote History
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Baicker
Katherine Baicker
University of Chicago
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Uncertain
2
Bio/Vote History
Chetty
Raj Chetty
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale
Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
I would have said strongly, but there may be instances where one could use other securities to synthesize or mimic the short.
Currie
Janet Currie
Princeton
Uncertain
2
Bio/Vote History
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Deaton
Angus Deaton
Princeton
Agree
2
Bio/Vote History
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Restricted trade on one side of the market, if binding, by definition prevents matching supply with demand, and thus "fundamental" prices.
-see background information here
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Even with short selling, it can be hard to stop a bubble. Without it, well...
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Goldberg
Pinelopi Goldberg
Yale
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Goldin
Claudia Goldin
Harvard
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Goolsbee
Austan Goolsbee
Chicago
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
more impt question is whether shorts produce info that improve firm governance. mandatory disclosure rules raise firm profits & stock price
-see background information here
Hall
Robert Hall
Stanford
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
If short selling is lawful and fraud is not prosecuted, there is a big opportunity to spread fraudulent rumors and gain by shorting.
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
On average definitely. By the nature of learning processes, not always.
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
This desperate policy does not work. See Geanakoplos for the dangers of leverage and the inability to short in producing instability.
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Agree
2
Bio/Vote History
Lazear
Edward Lazear
Stanford
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Most studies that I have seen indicate that banning short selling has no effect on average price, but does lead to higher variance
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Seems logical as a matter of economic theory. As a matter of practice, I don't know the relevant evidence.
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Subject to the qualification of market corners.
Obstfeld
Maurice Obstfeld
Berkeley
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
I can imagine different scenarios, and I don't believe there is clear-cut empirical evidence.
Rouse
Cecilia Rouse
Princeton Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Saez
Emmanuel Saez
Berkeley
Agree
2
Bio/Vote History
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
If they have any effect, it's got to be in that direction.
Shin
Hyun Song Shin
Princeton
Uncertain
9
Bio/Vote History
Stock
James Stock
Harvard
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Stokey
Nancy Stokey
University of Chicago
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
I've never seen any evidence on this point.
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
If Bob Shiller had succeeded in making it possible to short real estate markets, some of the bubbles might have been abated.
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Zingales
Luigi Zingales
Chicago Booth
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History