Immigration

January 17th, 2018

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:

Over the past two years, all else equal, the appeal of the US as a destination for immigrants has changed in ways that will likely decrease innovation in the US economy.

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Aging

January 3rd, 2018

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:

Aging

A) Without changes in policy, a rising share of people who are over age 65 will exert a substantial downward influence on per capita real GDP in western European countries.

B) In European countries where the share of those over 65 is rising, there are net social benefits to adjusting retirement ages for state-financed (including pay-as-you-go) pension systems upwards, so that revised retirement ages better reflect longer life expectancies.

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Bitcoin II

December 20th, 2017

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:

A)  A bitcoin has a fundamental value of at least $1,000.

B)  The best forecast for the value of one bitcoin in 2 years is its current price.

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Corporate Tax-Rate Harmonization

December 20th, 2017

This week’s IGM European Economic Experts Panel statements:

A)   Holding other policies fixed, the average European would be better off if every European country taxed corporate profits at a rate of 20% (based as closely as possible on a common definition of profits).

B)   If other policies were held fixed and every European country taxed corporate profits at a common rate of 20%, then reducing that common rate substantially below 20% would make the average European better off.

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Employment and the US Economy

December 6th, 2017

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:

A) The concept of “maximum sustainable employment” is well defined enough to be used beneficially in economic policymaking.

B) Right now the US economy is operating below maximum sustainable employment.

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Board Quotas for Women

November 28th, 2017

This week’s IGM European Experts Panel statements:

A) All else equal, if corporations throughout Europe set quotas for a minimum number of women board members, the shareholder value of European companies would increase.

B) Taking into account the likely effects on investments in human capital by men and women, setting quotas throughout Europe for a minimum number of women board members would generate substantial net benefits for Europeans.

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Dazed and Confused: Making Sense of Western Politics (And Consumers)

November 28th, 2017
Dr. Gillian Tett, US managing editor and award-winning columnist for the Financial Times Dr. Tett gives her perspective on the state of politics and how we can make sense of what has been happening in Western democracies. View Video> Go to Item ›

Tax Reform

November 21st, 2017

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel Statements:

A)   If the US enacts a tax bill similar to those currently moving through the House and Senate— and assuming no other changes in tax or spending policy — US GDP will be substantially higher a decade from now than under the status quo.

B)    If the US enacts a tax bill similar to those currently moving through the House and Senate— and assuming no other changes in tax or spending policy — the US debt-to-GDP ratio will be substantially higher a decade from now than under the status quo.

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Energy Sources

November 9th, 2017

This week’s IGM European Economic Experts Panel statements:

A)  Subsidizing renewable energy sources is better than taxing fossil fuels, assuming the subsidy or tax would be set at levels that would reduce carbon emissions by an equivalent amount.

B)  Germany’s solar-energy subsidies to date have produced net social benefits for Germany.

C)  Solar-energy subsidies to date in Germany and other countries have produced net social benefits for the world.

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Balanced Budget Amendment

November 7th, 2017

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel Statements:

A) Amending the Constitution to require that the federal government end each fiscal year without a deficit would substantially reduce output variability in the United States.

B) Amending the Constitution to require that the federal government end each fiscal year without a deficit would substantially lower the cost of borrowing for the federal government.

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Financial Trust Index

a measure of confidence Americans have in the private institutions in which they can invest

Visit the Financial Trust Index Site

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Scholes Forum: Dazed and Confused: Making Sense of Western Politics (And Consumers)

A VIDEO OF THE IGM’S MOST RECENT SCHOLES FORUM TALK CAN BE VIEWED HERE.

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US Monetary Policy Forum

The US Monetary Policy Forum (USMPF) brings academics, market economists, and policy makers together to discuss US monetary policy for an annual conference, sponsored by the IGM. A standing group of academic and private sector economists produces a report on a critical medium-term issue confronting the Federal Open Market Committee.

2016 USMPF REPORT
LANGUAGE AFTER LIFTOFF: FED COMMUNICATION AWAY FROM THE ZERO LOWER BOUND

2015 USMPF REPORT
THE EQUILIBRIUM REAL FUNDS RATE: PAST, PRESENT, AND FUTURE

2014 USMPF REPORT
MARKET TANTRUMS AND MONETARY POLICY

2013 USMPF REPORT
CRUNCH TIME: FISCAL CRISES AND THE ROLE OF MONETARY POLICY
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

2012 USMPF REPORT
HOUSING, MONETARY POLICY, AND THE RECOVERY

2011 USMPF REPORT
STRESSED OUT: MACROPRUDENTIAL PRINCIPLES FOR STRESS TESTING

2010 USMPF REPORT
FINANCIAL CONDITIONS INDEXES: A NEW LOOK AFTER THE FINANCIAL CRISIS

2009 USMPF REPORT
OIL AND THE MACROECONOMY: LESSONS FOR MONETARY POLICY

2008 USMPF REPORT
LEVERAGED LOSSES: LESSONS FROM THE MORTGAGE MARKET MELTDOWN

2007 USMPF REPORT
UNDERSTANDING THE EVOLVING INFLATION PROCESS

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China Economic Summer Institute

The China Economic Summer Institute enables the best Chinese scholars to stay in active contact with top-notch researchers from the rest of the world, and provides a forum to encourage promising young Chinese researchers to work on topics that are important for understanding the Chinese economy. To learn more see the CESI WEBSITE.

SELECTED PAPERS FROM THE 2012 CHINA ECONOMIC SUMMER INSTITUTE:

PUBLIC SCHOOL RESOURCES AND PRIVATE SUBSTITUTES IN URBAN CHINA
by Cheng Yuan and Lei Zhang

A MODEL OF CHINA’S STATE CAPITALISM
by Xi Li, Xuewen Liu, and Yong Wang

A UNIFIED MODEL OF STRUCTURAL ADJUSTMENTS AND INTERNATIONAL TRADE: THEORY AND EVIDENCE FROM CHINA
by Hanwei Huang, Jiandong Ju, and Vivian Z. Yue

*The IGM cosponsors the CESI with Tsinghua University; UC Berkeley’s Program on Institutions and Governance; and the Katholieke Universiteit Leaven’s LICOS Center.

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Research on International Accounting, Enforcement, and Global Convergence

Capital-Market Effects of Securities Regulation: The Role of Implementation and Enforcement
by Hans Christensen, Luzi Hail, and Christian Leuz

Christian Leuz proposes creating a “Global Player Segment” in which firms would use the same reporting rules (ie, IFRS), face the same enforcement mechanisms, and have similar incentives for transparent reporting

Read Leuz’s GPS proposal>
See related research paper>

Global Accounting Convergence and the Potential Adoption of IFRS by the United States
by Luzi Hail, Christian Leuz, and Peter Wysocki

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IGM Working Papers

PAPERS FROM THE IGM WORKING PAPER SERIES ARE AVAILABLE FOR DOWNLOAD HERE.

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