100-Day Plan

November 16th, 2016

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:

A)  If all of the “Seven actions to protect American workers” in President-elect Trump’s 100-day plan (see link) are enacted, it will more likely than not improve the economic prospects of middle-class Americans over the next decade.

B)  If all of the “Seven actions to protect American workers” in President-elect Trump’s 100-day plan are enacted, it will more likely than not improve the economic prospects of low-skilled Americans over the next decade.

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Global Economic Challenges: What Can Monetary Policy Do?

Raghuram Rajan November 9th, 2016

Myron Scholes Forum, October 26, 2016

Raghuram Rajan, Distinguished Service Professor of Finance at Chicago Booth and former Governor of the Reserve Bank of India

Professor Rajan describes some of the opportunities and challenges facing the Global economy and ask what role monetary policy has in addressing them.

View video>

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AT&T and Time Warner

November 8th, 2016

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:

A merger of AT&T and Time Warner would likely increase consumer surplus over the ensuing decade.

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Taxes and Mandatory Spending

October 25th, 2016

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:

Long run fiscal sustainability in the US will require some combination of cuts in currently promised Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security benefits and/or tax increases that include higher taxes on households with incomes below $250,000.

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Import Duties

October 4th, 2016

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:

Adding new or higher import duties on products such as air conditioners, cars, and cookies — to encourage producers to make them in the US — would be a good idea.

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Science, Technology and Immigration

September 20th, 2016

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:

A) Allowing US-based employers to hire many more immigrants with advanced degrees in science or engineering would lower (at least temporarily) the premium earned by current American workers with similar degrees.

B) Allowing US-based employers to hire many more immigrants with advanced degrees in science or engineering would raise per capita income in the US over time.

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Brexit II

July 12th, 2016

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:

A) Because of the Brexit vote’s outcome, the UK’s real per-capita income level is likely to be lower a decade from now.

B) Because of the Brexit vote’s outcome, the rest of the EU’s real per-capita income level is likely to be lower a decade from now.

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The U.K. Can’t Block Immigration If It Wants To Keep Its Finance Industry

July 5th, 2016

The Brexit vote will force the next U.K. prime minister to make a significant choice: Whether to control immigration into the country, or preserve the pre-eminence of the country’s financial center, known as the City of London. Doing both appears to be infeasible.

Read article>

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Universal Basic Income

June 28th, 2016

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:

Granting every American citizen over 21-years old a universal basic income of $13,000 a year — financed by eliminating all transfer programs (including Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, housing subsidies, household welfare payments, and farm and corporate subsidies) — would be a better policy than the status quo.

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The Brexit May Be Just The Beginning of Anti-Europe Votes

June 24th, 2016

One of the biggest consequences of the British vote to leave Europe is that other countries will consider doing the same. Populism and nationalism are on the rise all over the globe. Now that U.K. voters have been given a chance to express their preferences, I believe that it is almost inevitable that another government inside the EU will hold some sort of similar vote.

Read article>

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Financial Trust Index

a measure of confidence Americans have in the private institutions in which they can invest

Visit the Financial Trust Index Site

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Scholes Forum: Global Economic Challenges: What Can Monetary Policy Do?

A VIDEO OF THE IGM’S MOST RECENT SCHOLES FORUM TALK CAN BE VIEWED HERE.

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US Monetary Policy Forum

The US Monetary Policy Forum (USMPF) brings academics, market economists, and policy makers together to discuss US monetary policy for an annual conference, sponsored by the IGM. A standing group of academic and private sector economists produces a report on a critical medium-term issue confronting the Federal Open Market Committee.

2016 USMPF REPORT
LANGUAGE AFTER LIFTOFF: FED COMMUNICATION AWAY FROM THE ZERO LOWER BOUND

2015 USMPF REPORT
THE EQUILIBRIUM REAL FUNDS RATE: PAST, PRESENT, AND FUTURE

2014 USMPF REPORT
MARKET TANTRUMS AND MONETARY POLICY

2013 USMPF REPORT
CRUNCH TIME: FISCAL CRISES AND THE ROLE OF MONETARY POLICY
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

2012 USMPF REPORT
HOUSING, MONETARY POLICY, AND THE RECOVERY

2011 USMPF REPORT
STRESSED OUT: MACROPRUDENTIAL PRINCIPLES FOR STRESS TESTING

2010 USMPF REPORT
FINANCIAL CONDITIONS INDEXES: A NEW LOOK AFTER THE FINANCIAL CRISIS

2009 USMPF REPORT
OIL AND THE MACROECONOMY: LESSONS FOR MONETARY POLICY

2008 USMPF REPORT
LEVERAGED LOSSES: LESSONS FROM THE MORTGAGE MARKET MELTDOWN

2007 USMPF REPORT
UNDERSTANDING THE EVOLVING INFLATION PROCESS

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China Economic Summer Institute

The China Economic Summer Institute enables the best Chinese scholars to stay in active contact with top-notch researchers from the rest of the world, and provides a forum to encourage promising young Chinese researchers to work on topics that are important for understanding the Chinese economy. To learn more see the CESI WEBSITE.

SELECTED PAPERS FROM THE 2012 CHINA ECONOMIC SUMMER INSTITUTE:

PUBLIC SCHOOL RESOURCES AND PRIVATE SUBSTITUTES IN URBAN CHINA
by Cheng Yuan and Lei Zhang

A MODEL OF CHINA’S STATE CAPITALISM
by Xi Li, Xuewen Liu, and Yong Wang

A UNIFIED MODEL OF STRUCTURAL ADJUSTMENTS AND INTERNATIONAL TRADE: THEORY AND EVIDENCE FROM CHINA
by Hanwei Huang, Jiandong Ju, and Vivian Z. Yue

*The IGM cosponsors the CESI with Tsinghua University; UC Berkeley’s Program on Institutions and Governance; and the Katholieke Universiteit Leaven’s LICOS Center.

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Research on International Accounting, Enforcement, and Global Convergence

Capital-Market Effects of Securities Regulation: The Role of Implementation and Enforcement
by Hans Christensen, Luzi Hail, and Christian Leuz

Christian Leuz proposes creating a “Global Player Segment” in which firms would use the same reporting rules (ie, IFRS), face the same enforcement mechanisms, and have similar incentives for transparent reporting

Read Leuz’s GPS proposal>
See related research paper>

Global Accounting Convergence and the Potential Adoption of IFRS by the United States
by Luzi Hail, Christian Leuz, and Peter Wysocki

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IGM Working Papers

PAPERS FROM THE IGM WORKING PAPER SERIES ARE AVAILABLE FOR DOWNLOAD HERE.

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