Question A:
Even with the support policies implemented by European governments in response to the crisis, low-income workers will suffer a relatively bigger hit to their incomes than those further up the distribution.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question B:
With schools across Europe closed in the lockdown, existing gaps in access to quality education between high- and low-income households will be exacerbated.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question C:
Combating the effects of the pandemic on inequality should be a priority for policy interventions.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question A Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Poorer people have much less security all around and will tend to suffer much more than people higher up the income distribution.
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 Pol Antras |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I would imagine working from home is much less of an option for many poor individuals. And they might also face more prevalent layoffs.
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 Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
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poor more likely to be exposed to the virus if they work. more likely to lose income if laid off.
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 Nicholas Bloom |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Absolutely see this blog piece on exactly that
-see background information here |
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 Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Agnès Bénassy-Quéré |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Though depends very much on the sector and status (wage contract, independent worker, etc)
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 Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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In Switzerland many low income workers are better protected than higher in the income scale l. Those who are not will suffer most
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 Paul De Grauwe |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The word relatively is important in your question. I assume you mean a percentage decline in income.
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 Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Ernst Fehr |
Universität Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Xavier Freixas |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Francesco Giavazzi |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Bio/Vote History | ||
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My reading of the evidence is that it suggest the COVID-19 crisis will increase inequality on many dimensions.
-see background information here -see background information here -see background information here -see background information here |
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 Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Job loss likely disproportionately affecting low-skilled workers especially in affected service sectors
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 Beata Javorcik |
University of Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The answer must be country-specific. E.g., Germany has automatic stabilizers, like Kurzarbeit, making small entrepreneurs the main losers.
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 Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Quite a bit of evidence has emerged for US. Effects in EU likely similar, though less extreme. Depends also on profession.
-see background information here -see background information here |
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 Thierry Mayer |
Sciences-Po | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Costas Meghir |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Peter Neary |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Some groups will gain, but on average low-income workers are more likely to suffer unemployment, lower incomes, and less access to amenities
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 Kevin O'Rourke |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Wealthier and more educated people tend to have more flexible jobs that can be done remotely.
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 Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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True for labor income, false for capital income.
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 Torsten Persson |
Stockholm University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Christopher Pissarides |
London School of Economics and Political Science | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Hélène Rey |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It depends on the details and the implementation of the policies. Short term contracts, gig economy likely to fall through cracks.
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 Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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lower income workers are more likely to be in the service sector and these industries have been hit hardest.
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 Daniel Sturm |
London School of Economics | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 John Van Reenen |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Low-income workers tend to have less job security but income from capital could drop sharply
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 Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Freelancers and self employed are also hit very hard
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 Beatrice Weder di Mauro |
The Graduate Institute, Geneva | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Karl Whelan |
University College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Workers in low paid sectors such as retail & hospitality have been more affected. Well paid workers more likely to be able to work from home
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 Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Fabrizio Zilibotti |
Yale University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Question B Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It depends significantly on which country in Europe. In many I don't think there will be much difference across the income distribution.
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Pol Antras |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I'm not aware of systematic evidence, but in Massachusetts, there has been a massive differential response by private and public schools.
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Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
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obvious differences in access to net, in ability of the family to help study
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Nicholas Bloom |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The wealthy can more easily home-school
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Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Agnès Bénassy-Quéré |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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This will be revealing and thus rather positive if it does not last too long and lessons are learned.
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Paul De Grauwe |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It depends on the school systems in different countries
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Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ernst Fehr |
Universität Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Xavier Freixas |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Francesco Giavazzi |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Access will probably be similar, family background will make the difference
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Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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access to broadband; poor home-study environment
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Beata Javorcik |
University of Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Again, country-specific access to quality education is not the problem, but family support in using the access - which is income-related.
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Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Both groups will take a hit but my guess is hit for low-inc will be relatively larger. Many relevant factors (internet) correlated w/ inc.
-see background information here -see background information here |
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Thierry Mayer |
Sciences-Po | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Costas Meghir |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Peter Neary |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Home-schooling is hard work, even for highly-educated parents, and in most cases a poor substitute for school
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Kevin O'Rourke |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The lockdown may it harder for rich kids to segregate into private or foreign schools. School choice may become local and egalitarian.
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Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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All kids, rich and poor, can learn equally from free online resources like Khan Academy.
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Torsten Persson |
Stockholm University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Christopher Pissarides |
London School of Economics and Political Science | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hélène Rey |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Lock down magnifies inequality due to family environment.
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Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Daniel Sturm |
London School of Economics | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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John Van Reenen |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Peer effects are very bad for the disadvantaged groups- they are often better off at home
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Beatrice Weder di Mauro |
The Graduate Institute, Geneva | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Karl Whelan |
University College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The extent of support being provided by schools to students working from home will vary depending on school and home resources.
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Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Fabrizio Zilibotti |
Yale University | Bio/Vote History | ||
Question C Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I think providing a safety net from the effects of the pandemic is very important. This is for it's own sake but also to stop bankruptcies.
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Pol Antras |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Policies to reduce pandemic-related deaths are essential, but pandemic-related spikes in poverty will also cause a lot of deaths.
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Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The priority should be to fight the pandemic, not inequality. But, given that, anything that can be done to fight inequality is desirable.
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Nicholas Bloom |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The priority should be restoring the economy. Once this is done we can focus on inequality, funding this by taxes on growth.
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Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Agnès Bénassy-Quéré |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Otherwise social distancing is non-sutainable.
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Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Paul De Grauwe |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ernst Fehr |
Universität Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Xavier Freixas |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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In the short run it is not a priority. It can be corrected once the medical and economic catastrophe is dealt with
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Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Francesco Giavazzi |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Beata Javorcik |
University of Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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No. The widening gap of competitivity between Europe's north and south, resulting from huge differences in aid programs, needs attention.
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Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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For econ policy, inequality should be one priority, but not only one. Size of the pie matters too. Inequality at national & EU level matters
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Thierry Mayer |
Sciences-Po | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Costas Meghir |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Peter Neary |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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This is a value judgement, though one that likely commands broad support. Putting it into practice will be very difficult though.
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Kevin O'Rourke |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Saving lives and restarting the economy are much higher priorities. Moreover, the pandemic has reduced wealth inequality.
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Torsten Persson |
Stockholm University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Christopher Pissarides |
London School of Economics and Political Science | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hélène Rey |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Need for social justice very high as low income workers often on front line. Inequality exacerbated by crisis in a number of dimensions.
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Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Daniel Sturm |
London School of Economics | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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John Van Reenen |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Inequality concern is reflected in design of govt support packages such as the UK job retention scheme
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Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Growth first
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Beatrice Weder di Mauro |
The Graduate Institute, Geneva | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Karl Whelan |
University College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Priority is getting the economy back working again. Some of the emergency policies however could be kept on and could reduce inequality.
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Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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There can't be too many priorities.
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Fabrizio Zilibotti |
Yale University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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