Question A:
Germany's current account surplus is undesirable even from a purely German viewpoint: the country would be better off if, for example, it ran a smaller primary surplus, in turn leading to a smaller current account surplus.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question B:
The Eurozone would be in better shape if fiscal policy were more expansionary, which would allow monetary policy to be slightly less so.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question C:
If there is a recession in the Eurozone, it will be essential to have a coordinated fiscal expansion.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question A Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
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 Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Depends what the money is spent on. Germany is probably underinvesting in infrastructure and education.
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 Pol Antras |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Running a smaller primary surplus, so increasing demand and output would likely lead to a real appreciation and an increase in real income.
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 Nicholas Bloom |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Agnès Bénassy-Quéré |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The demography justifies a smaller surplus. Returns from foreign investments are not great.
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 Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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provided the public investments are real productivity boosters!
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 Paul De Grauwe |
LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Ernst Fehr |
Universität Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Xavier Freixas |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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"De gustibus non est disputandum"
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 Francesco Giavazzi |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Beata Javorcik |
University of Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I do not wish to comment on German policies.
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 Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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If the EU is one economy, some countries will always run a surplus/deficit; there is no point in balancing the current account by country.
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 Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Depends on sources of surplus for which no consensus. Yet agree GER should spend more on public R&D, incentives for private inv. &tax reform
-see background information here |
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 Thierry Mayer |
Sciences-Po | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Costas Meghir |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Peter Neary |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Surpluses defer consumption; doing this indefinitely makes no sense. That said, German opposition to inflation is understandably deep-rooted
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 Kevin O'Rourke |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Torsten Persson |
Stockholm University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Christopher Pissarides |
London School of Economics and Political Science | Bio/Vote History | ||
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on a very short term basis I might have agreed but Germany is facing an ageing population and they are saving for the future. Good for them!
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 Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Hélène Rey |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Investing now to tackle e.g climate change is prudent strategy instead of getting low returns on external assets. Low gvt borrowing rates.
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 Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Daniel Sturm |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 John Van Reenen |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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More spending on infrastructure would appear particularly desirable
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 Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Germany is famously poor in investing its surpluses abroad
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 Beatrice Weder di Mauro |
The Graduate Institute, Geneva | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Karl Whelan |
University College Dublin | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Private saving is a matter of choice. Public saving is a matter of collective preferences. Germans sometimes are hard to understand.
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 Fabrizio Zilibotti |
Yale University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Question B Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Again it depends on what the money is being spent on with the expanded fiscal policy relative to what is the optimal public expenditure.
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Pol Antras |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I believe that there is still a negative output gap in the euro zone, and m policy cannot help much.
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Nicholas Bloom |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I worry about crowding out private investment - if this spending went on productive spending (schools etc) great, but I fear most will not.
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Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Agnès Bénassy-Quéré |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Depends on which country expands.
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Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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under same condition!
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Paul De Grauwe |
LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ernst Fehr |
Universität Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Xavier Freixas |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Lack of public expense in tangible (research) and intangible (infrastructures) in order to foster innovation and growth limits Europe prospe
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Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Noy full employment yet in many countries. Low inflationary pressures. Limited room for more monetary loosening.
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Francesco Giavazzi |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Beata Javorcik |
University of Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I do not wish to comment on Eurozone policies.
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Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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There are pros and cons, as some countries have hard-to sustain government debt levels, others not. Thus, a case by case analysis is needed.
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Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Again, depends on what money is spend on. Structural reform. Neg rates do not seem to work. In US, subsidies to banks seem to work better
-see background information here |
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Thierry Mayer |
Sciences-Po | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Costas Meghir |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Peter Neary |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The current monetary-fiscal-policy disconnect is unsustainable. Provided it is prudent and targeted, expansionary fiscal policy makes sense
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Kevin O'Rourke |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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There are costs to having negative interest rates.
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Torsten Persson |
Stockholm University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Christopher Pissarides |
London School of Economics and Political Science | Bio/Vote History | ||
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fiscal policy directed to productivity-enhancing public investment would definitely benefit it more than monetary policy
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Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hélène Rey |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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fiscal policy now would be effective to boost economy and invest for future. Would help constrained monetary policy.
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Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Daniel Sturm |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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John Van Reenen |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I am not convinced that more expansionary policy in the Southern states is desirable; debt is already high and spending is often wasted
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Beatrice Weder di Mauro |
The Graduate Institute, Geneva | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Karl Whelan |
University College Dublin | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It would be nice to have countercyclical fiscal policies at work, if they are done well. A big if, especially in the upswing.
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Fabrizio Zilibotti |
Yale University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Question C Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Not clear in the long run that policy interventions of this kind are beneficial. Again depends on how productively spending is.
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Pol Antras |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
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fiscal expansion yes. Coordinated: better, but not of the essence.
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Nicholas Bloom |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Agnès Bénassy-Quéré |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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At the zero-lower-bound fiscal-monetary coordination is essential to avoid sub-optimal monetary policies.
-see background information here |
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Paul De Grauwe |
LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ernst Fehr |
Universität Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Xavier Freixas |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The lack of an organized coordinated response to a recession is costly and inefficient
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Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Need for a coordinated response (to avoid free riding), and given no room for robust monetary policy response.
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Francesco Giavazzi |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Beata Javorcik |
University of Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I do not wish to comment on Eurozone policies.
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Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Fiscal policies in the Eurozone are by and large regional/national decisions, so coordination may be either not justified, or not needed.
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Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Thierry Mayer |
Sciences-Po | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Costas Meghir |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Peter Neary |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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"essential" begs a lot of questions. Desirable definitely, though without new institutional structures, not clear how that can be effected
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Kevin O'Rourke |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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With monetary policy largely maxed out and macropru policy largely in national hands, there aren't many other options left.
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Torsten Persson |
Stockholm University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Christopher Pissarides |
London School of Economics and Political Science | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Keynes explained it in 1936, no need to repeat
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Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Given initial debt levels, not all countries will be able to afford a fiscal expansion.
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Hélène Rey |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Daniel Sturm |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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John Van Reenen |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Beatrice Weder di Mauro |
The Graduate Institute, Geneva | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Karl Whelan |
University College Dublin | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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But don't hold your breath!
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Fabrizio Zilibotti |
Yale University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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