US

Exchange Rates

The Chinese government pursues policies that keep the renminbi's exchange rate vis à vis the dollar lower than it would be if the currency floated without those policies.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Alesina
Alberto Alesina
Harvard
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
That is my understanding, but this is second-hand information, not my area of expertise.
Baicker
Katherine Baicker
University of Chicago
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Not my field.
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Agree
1
Bio/Vote History
Chetty
Raj Chetty
Harvard
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale
Strongly Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Currie
Janet Currie
Princeton
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Deaton
Angus Deaton
Princeton
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Yes, but the situation is not as extreme as was the case a few years ago.
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Everyone thinks so. Can everyone be wrong? Yes. But not every time, and not most of the time.
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Goldberg
Pinelopi Goldberg
Yale
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Seems uncontroversial.
Goldin
Claudia Goldin
Harvard
Strongly Agree
2
Bio/Vote History
The undervaluation of the currency is part of their growth strategy. Higher prices for consumers; more demand for products from abroad.
Goolsbee
Austan Goolsbee
Chicago
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
multiple trillions of foreign reserves, giant trade surpluses, fighting to contain domestic inflation. Smells a whole like undervaluation.
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Hall
Robert Hall
Stanford
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
China has many policies; some raise and some lower the value of the yuan. Absent the ones that lower its value, it would rise.
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
The same policies are creating big imbalances in China by thwarting price signals. The eventual adjustment for China could be ugly.
-see background information here
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Lazear
Edward Lazear
Stanford
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
They use the exchange rate for monetary policy, but some knowledgeable economist believe that the rate would be higher with float.
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Would expect that China amassing $3 trillion in dollar reserves has an effect on the exchange rate.
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Obstfeld
Maurice Obstfeld
Berkeley
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Rouse
Cecilia Rouse
Princeton
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
I don't know enough about what China may or may not be doing to state an informed opinion.
Saez
Emmanuel Saez
Berkeley
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Although these policies also increase inflation, what erodes a portion of the impact on the real exchange rate.
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT
Uncertain
2
Bio/Vote History
Not my terrain. I know little more than what I read in the unreliable press.
Shin
Hyun Song Shin
Princeton
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Stock
James Stock
Harvard
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Stokey
Nancy Stokey
University of Chicago
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth
Agree
1
Bio/Vote History
Not my area.
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Zingales
Luigi Zingales
Chicago Booth
Strongly Agree
6
Bio/Vote History