Question A:
All else equal, making drugs illegal raises street prices for those drugs because suppliers require extra compensation for the risk of incarceration and other punishments.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question B:
The Netherlands restrictions on “soft drugs” combined with a moderate tax aimed at deterring their consumption would have lower social costs than continuing to prohibit use of those drugs as in the US. (Click here for a summary of the Netherlands restrictions.)
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question A Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
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 Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Only caveat (more drugs today increase addiction, demand and prices in the future) seems insufficient to reverse basic supply-demand result.
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 Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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See AER paper by Carlos Dobkin and Nancy Nicosi on price effects of the U.S. government's disruption of the methamphetamine market
-see background information here |
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 Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Also depends on demand response - may be more consumers if legal, expanding demand - but that seems likely to be smaller than supply effect
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 Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Price increase isn't only due to risk-- constraints on production, costs of avoiding authority all raise MC.
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 Janet Currie |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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"All else equal" seems to imply something about taxation if legal.
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 Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Not sure what is "all things equal," such as demand being constant, taxation of legal drugs, etc.
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 Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Illegality leads to high prices and crime.
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 Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Claudia Goldin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Supply shifts to the left b/c of a host of factors including paying off authorities and related drug supply restrictions (plus added costs).
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 Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I claim no expertise on this subject but the proposition is basic economics
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 Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Basic micro economics
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 Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
 Edward Lazear |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Quantities also adjust because of the effect on demand but the supply price is higher when drugs are illegal.
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 Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Or reduces quality. Presumably illegality also reduces demand, but assuming cost increase is the more relevant & applying Econ 1.
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 William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Cecilia Rouse |
Princeton | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Consumers also face risk of punishment, but the evidence is that the effect on suppliers dominates - substantially raising street prices.
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 Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Basic micro. Illegality also rules out some efficient forms of production & distribution.
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 Hyun Song Shin |
Princeton | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 James Stock |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Nancy Stokey |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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A test of whether the panel is awake.
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 Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Luigi Zingales |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Question B Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
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Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The US war on drugs appears to be a total and very costly failure, so alternatives have to be tried and this one seems to have worked well.
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Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Marijuana is less dangerous than alcohol. Criminal enforcement for minor marijuana infractions is a waste of societal resources.
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Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Depends on "social costs" and how harms of drug use, effect on crime, policing efforts, tax revenue enter social welfare function.
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Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Too many poorly measured factors to have real certainty about this.
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Janet Currie |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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This is an empirical question. Depends ion how the law affects social acceptance of drugs, whether soft drugs are gateway drugs, etc.
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David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The current regime of drug enforcement has unacceptably high cost in crime and prison
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Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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yes, especially if combined with an anti-drug campaign similar to the campaign against smoking in the U.S.
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Claudia Goldin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Depends on how "moderate" the tax is.
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Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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very difficult to judge. presumably, usage would be higher. does reduced productivity of users count as a social cost?
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Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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My limited understanding is that there is evidence of harm from cannabis.
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Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The evidence on this is very unclear because many of the consequences are not only hard to estimate, but hard to value. See Pudney papers..
-see background information here -see background information here |
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Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Have to trade off the costs of the likely extra usage against savings from wasted resources trying to stop the inevitable.
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Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Edward Lazear |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Two issues confound this. The effect of lower prices and more availability on the young and drug tourism.
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Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Must be better approaches to drug policy, but don't have an informed view on this one.
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William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Cecilia Rouse |
Princeton | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Although drug use would increase, the diminished use of violence should yield a net gain.
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Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Not at all simple: evidence weak, hard to weight various kinds of costs.
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Hyun Song Shin |
Princeton | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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James Stock |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Nancy Stokey |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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War on drugs dumber than invading Iraq in search of WMDs. Treat pot like booze. Would also lower prison population.
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Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Luigi Zingales |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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