Question A:
Under current policies on climate change, the associated physical risks (such as those arising from total seasonal rainfall and sea level changes, and increased frequency, severity, and correlation of extreme weather events) will be at most a very small factor in monetary policy decisions over the next decade.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question B:
The physical risks associated with climate change under current policies are likely to threaten financial stability over the next decade.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question A Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
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 Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Pol Antras |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Seems like a rather inadequate policy tool, even if other coordination mechanisms may not be working. Wrong time horizon too.
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 Timothy J. Besley |
LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
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strange question... If there is a major global warming catastrophe, then I suspect this will affect all policies, monetary, fiscal, etc.
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 Nicholas Bloom |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Agnès Bénassy-Quéré |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It is not clear whether these events will have a sizeable impact on inflation.
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 Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The central banks seem to be aware of the importance of climate risk and thus seem to think already how to incorporate it in their models.
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 Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Serious economic disruptions are likely without significant policy changes to which central banks will have to react.
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 Paul De Grauwe |
LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Ernst Fehr |
Universität Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Xavier Freixas |
Barcelona GSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I don't know if they will be an important factor, but I believe they should not be. There must be better tools to fight CC.
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 Francesco Giavazzi |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I do not see why climate change may result in drastic changes in MP
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 Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Maybe quantitatively small, but could be qualitatively significant in retaining public confidence in central banks...
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 Beata Javorcik |
University of Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Henrik Kleven |
Princeton | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The answer is "uncertain", because I fear political pressure combined with central bank hubris may lead to action based on a false positive
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 Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Climate change can certainly create supply shocks that are relevant to monetary policy. Hard to know how large these shocks might be.
-see background information here |
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 Thierry Mayer |
Sciences-Po | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Costas Meghir |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Peter Neary |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Extreme weather events may destabilize financial markets tho risks from global warming increasing pressure on migration are likely greater
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 Kevin O'Rourke |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Not in the next decade. Monetary policy seems most likely to begin paying attention to climate issues in Europe under Lagarde.
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 Torsten Persson |
Stockholm University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Christopher Pissarides |
London School of Economics and Political Science | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Big events will require big responses but their occurrence is uncertain
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 Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Hélène Rey |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Climate related events can be supply (for some) or demand (for others) shocks. Some are transitory. They affect monetary policy.
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 Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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monetary policy is not a useful tool to tackle climate risks. We will need investment in science and regulation of emission standards etc
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 Daniel Sturm |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 John Van Reenen |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Beatrice Weder di Mauro |
The Graduate Institute, Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Karl Whelan |
University College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It's not clear climate change will be a major issue for central banks over this period, particularly given the narrow remit that many have.
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 Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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For monetary policy stricto sensu, the principle is one instrument-one objective. Going beyond would open a Pandora box.
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 Fabrizio Zilibotti |
Yale University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Question B Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Pol Antras |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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That's not my reading of the evidence. The threat seems too far in the future to affect financial variable any time soon. But I'm no expert.
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Timothy J. Besley |
LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Nicholas Bloom |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Agnès Bénassy-Quéré |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Some asset classes may abruptly lose value.
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Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Paul De Grauwe |
LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ernst Fehr |
Universität Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Xavier Freixas |
Barcelona GSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I'd think the next decade is too short a horizon to see any impact.
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Francesco Giavazzi |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Maybe geographically limited in the next decade, but increasingly broad later on.
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Beata Javorcik |
University of Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Henrik Kleven |
Princeton | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Agree climate change can pose systemic risks. But don't know how likely. There are huge time lags in (nonlinear) physical climate responses.
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Thierry Mayer |
Sciences-Po | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Costas Meghir |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Peter Neary |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Very hard to forecast
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Kevin O'Rourke |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Not in the next decade. Possible, through property insurance, but not likely.
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Torsten Persson |
Stockholm University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Christopher Pissarides |
London School of Economics and Political Science | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Same as before. Climate change events are unpredictable but their implications can be destabilising
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Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hélène Rey |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Portfolios will be affected (stranded assets in particular). Due to uncertainty and procrastination, likely to translate into instability.
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Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Climate change likely affects economic stability/welfare/politics.Financial (in)stability uncertain,depends on speed/predictability ofchange
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Daniel Sturm |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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John Van Reenen |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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If such risks do threaten financial stability, it will be mainly because financial regulation (eg of bank capital) is too weak
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Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Beatrice Weder di Mauro |
The Graduate Institute, Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Karl Whelan |
University College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I could be wrong here. There could be tipping point events where climate emergencies become a major financial issue.
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Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Fabrizio Zilibotti |
Yale University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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