Raising Interest Rates

April 7th, 2015

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:

The Fed should wait until its preferred measure of inflation (Core PCE) is clearly rising — and not just forecast to rise — before it begins hiking interest rates. 

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Local Tax Incentives

March 24th, 2015

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:

A)  Giving tax incentives to specific firms to locate operations in a city or state typically generates local benefits that outweigh the costs to the city and/or state providing the incentives.

B) The US as a whole benefits when cities or states compete with each other by giving tax incentives to firms to locate operations in their jurisdictions.

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Vaccines

March 10th, 2015

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:

A) Declining to be vaccinated against contagious diseases such as measles imposes costs on other people, which is a negative externality.

B) Considering the costs of restricting free choice, and the share of people in the US who choose not to vaccinate their children for measles, the social benefit of mandating measles vaccines for all Americans (except those with compelling medical reasons) would exceed the social cost.

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Survey: Which Famous Economist Are You Most Similar To

February 24th, 2015
Last year Chris Said, who is now a data scientist at Twitter, created a tool for summarizing the answers from the experts panel so that anyone could see which expert they would be most similar to. Chris has updated his … Continue reading Go to Item ›

Greece

February 24th, 2015

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:

In 10 years, per capita purchasing power in Greece will be higher if — rather than continuing to service its debts over the next decade and complying with the budget rules currently in place — it refuses to accept a continuation of its current troika program and explicitly defaults on its debt held by the official sector.

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Dynamic Scoring

February 10th, 2015

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:

A)  Changing federal income tax rates, or the income bases to which those rates apply, can affect federal tax revenues partly by altering people’s behavior, and thus their actual or reported incomes.

B)  To the extent that a given tax change might affect revenues partly by affecting national-income growth, existing research provides enough guidance to generate informative bounds on the size of any growth-driven revenue effect.

C)  For large proposed changes in tax rates or the tax base, official revenue forecasts provided to Congress would probably be more accurate if the CBO and JCT tried to estimate fully how the proposed tax changes would affect growth-driven revenue.

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Textbook Prices

January 27th, 2015

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:

A) Most college professors who assign textbooks would not be able to guess, within 10% of the actual figure, the retail price that their students pay for new copies of those books.

B) Since students can resell college textbooks or rent electronic versions, the net burden on students is substantially lower than retail prices for new textbook purchases would suggest.

C) Even though the professors who select textbooks are different form the people who pay for them, the price of new edition college textbooks reflect classic forces of supply and demand.

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Oil Prices

January 13th, 2015

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:

The recent decline in oil prices will promote higher real GDP in the US over the next couple of years.

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Economists and Conventions

December 23rd, 2014

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:

A US city hosting a big convention will enjoy a higher boost to incremental spending — holding the number of visitors and their average incomes fixed — if those visitors are auto dealers rather than economists.

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Trade Balances

December 9th, 2014

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:

A typical country can increase its citizens’ welfare by enacting policies that would increase its trade surplus (or decrease its trade deficit).

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Financial Trust Index

a measure of confidence Americans have in the private institutions in which they can invest

Visit the Financial Trust Index Site

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Scholes Forum: Brexit: What it Means for Europe and the World

A VIDEO OF THE IGM’S MOST RECENT SCHOLES FORUM TALK CAN BE VIEWED HERE.

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US Monetary Policy Forum

The US Monetary Policy Forum (USMPF) brings academics, market economists, and policy makers together to discuss US monetary policy for an annual conference, sponsored by the IGM. A standing group of academic and private sector economists produces a report on a critical medium-term issue confronting the Federal Open Market Committee.

2016 USMPF REPORT
LANGUAGE AFTER LIFTOFF: FED COMMUNICATION AWAY FROM THE ZERO LOWER BOUND

2015 USMPF REPORT
THE EQUILIBRIUM REAL FUNDS RATE: PAST, PRESENT, AND FUTURE

2014 USMPF REPORT
MARKET TANTRUMS AND MONETARY POLICY

2013 USMPF REPORT
CRUNCH TIME: FISCAL CRISES AND THE ROLE OF MONETARY POLICY
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

2012 USMPF REPORT
HOUSING, MONETARY POLICY, AND THE RECOVERY

2011 USMPF REPORT
STRESSED OUT: MACROPRUDENTIAL PRINCIPLES FOR STRESS TESTING

2010 USMPF REPORT
FINANCIAL CONDITIONS INDEXES: A NEW LOOK AFTER THE FINANCIAL CRISIS

2009 USMPF REPORT
OIL AND THE MACROECONOMY: LESSONS FOR MONETARY POLICY

2008 USMPF REPORT
LEVERAGED LOSSES: LESSONS FROM THE MORTGAGE MARKET MELTDOWN

2007 USMPF REPORT
UNDERSTANDING THE EVOLVING INFLATION PROCESS

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China Economic Summer Institute

The China Economic Summer Institute enables the best Chinese scholars to stay in active contact with top-notch researchers from the rest of the world, and provides a forum to encourage promising young Chinese researchers to work on topics that are important for understanding the Chinese economy. To learn more see the CESI WEBSITE.

SELECTED PAPERS FROM THE 2012 CHINA ECONOMIC SUMMER INSTITUTE:

PUBLIC SCHOOL RESOURCES AND PRIVATE SUBSTITUTES IN URBAN CHINA
by Cheng Yuan and Lei Zhang

A MODEL OF CHINA’S STATE CAPITALISM
by Xi Li, Xuewen Liu, and Yong Wang

A UNIFIED MODEL OF STRUCTURAL ADJUSTMENTS AND INTERNATIONAL TRADE: THEORY AND EVIDENCE FROM CHINA
by Hanwei Huang, Jiandong Ju, and Vivian Z. Yue

*The IGM cosponsors the CESI with Tsinghua University; UC Berkeley’s Program on Institutions and Governance; and the Katholieke Universiteit Leaven’s LICOS Center.

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Research on International Accounting, Enforcement, and Global Convergence

Capital-Market Effects of Securities Regulation: The Role of Implementation and Enforcement
by Hans Christensen, Luzi Hail, and Christian Leuz

Christian Leuz proposes creating a “Global Player Segment” in which firms would use the same reporting rules (ie, IFRS), face the same enforcement mechanisms, and have similar incentives for transparent reporting

Read Leuz’s GPS proposal>
See related research paper>

Global Accounting Convergence and the Potential Adoption of IFRS by the United States
by Luzi Hail, Christian Leuz, and Peter Wysocki

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IGM Working Papers

PAPERS FROM THE IGM WORKING PAPER SERIES ARE AVAILABLE FOR DOWNLOAD HERE.

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