Breaking Up Banks

May 3rd, 2016

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:

The four largest domestic US banks currently have around 40% of the industry’s domestic assets (an average of 10% each). In early 1998, before Glass-Steagall ended and before Citicorp merged with Travelers, they held 13.2% (an average of 3.3% each). Thirty years ago, before interstate branching was fully permitted, that combined share was around 8% (an average of 2% each).

A) Capping US banks’ size so that no single bank could be larger than 4% of the sector’s domestic assets would lower systemic risk in the US.

B) The US financial system would contribute more to the average American’s welfare if the size of US banks were capped so that none could be larger than 4% of the sector’s domestic assets.

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The Global Decline in the Labor Share

Brent Neiman April 28th, 2016
Myron Scholes Forum, April 20, 2016 Brent Neiman, Associate Professor of Economics, University of Chicago Booth School of Business The share of total income paid as compensation to labor – the labor share – has been declining all around the … Continue reading Go to Item ›

Bureau of Labor Statistics

April 12th, 2016

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:

A) By providing important measures of US economic performance — including employment, consumer prices, wages, job openings, time allocation in households, and productivity — the Bureau of Labor Statistics creates social benefits that exceed its annual cost of roughly $610 million.

B) Cuts in BLS spending would likely involve net social costs because potential declines in the quality of data, and thus their usefulness to researchers and decision makers, would exceed any budget savings.

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Trade and Toughness

March 22nd, 2016

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:

An important reason why many workers in Michigan and Ohio have lost jobs in recent years is because US presidential administrations over the past 30 years have not been tough enough in trade negotiations.

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Primary Voting

March 7th, 2016

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:

A) There is no perfect voting system. That is, no voting system can ensure that the winner will be the person who best represents voters’ wishes, including how intensely they favor or disfavor each candidate.

B) One clear defect of a winner-take-all election with 3 or more candidates, and with each voter choosing only one candidate, is that a candidate who is strongly disliked by a majority, but strongly liked by a minority, can beat a candidate who is liked by a majority and disliked by relatively few.

 

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Growth Prospects for the US Economy

February 19th, 2016
Myron Scholes Forum, February 18, 2016 Lawrence H. Summers, Charles W. Eliot University Professor at Harvard University and former US Treasury Secretary and Kevin Murphy, George J. Stigler Distinguished Service Professor in Economics at the University of Chicago offer contrasting … Continue reading Go to Item ›

Oil Price Speculation

February 16th, 2016

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:

Large movements in monthly oil prices, either up or down, are driven primarily by speculators, as opposed to changes in the current (and planned) supply or demand for oil.

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Brexit

February 2nd, 2016

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:

A) If the UK opts to withdraw from the European Union, and assuming Scotland stays in the UK, the level of the UK’s real per-capita income a decade later will be lower than if it remains part of the EU.

B) If the UK exits the EU, then it substantially increases the chances that some other current region of the EU will also exit within the following decade.

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China’s Growth

January 19th, 2016

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:

China’s growth model, specifically the unusually high investment rate and low consumption rate, is unsustainable.

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Christmas Spending

December 22nd, 2015

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:

An annual December spending surge on parties, gift-giving and personal travel delivers net social benefits.

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Financial Trust Index

a measure of confidence Americans have in the private institutions in which they can invest

Visit the Financial Trust Index Site

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Scholes Forum: Brexit: What it Means for Europe and the World

A VIDEO OF THE IGM’S MOST RECENT SCHOLES FORUM TALK CAN BE VIEWED HERE.

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US Monetary Policy Forum

The US Monetary Policy Forum (USMPF) brings academics, market economists, and policy makers together to discuss US monetary policy for an annual conference, sponsored by the IGM. A standing group of academic and private sector economists produces a report on a critical medium-term issue confronting the Federal Open Market Committee.

2016 USMPF REPORT
LANGUAGE AFTER LIFTOFF: FED COMMUNICATION AWAY FROM THE ZERO LOWER BOUND

2015 USMPF REPORT
THE EQUILIBRIUM REAL FUNDS RATE: PAST, PRESENT, AND FUTURE

2014 USMPF REPORT
MARKET TANTRUMS AND MONETARY POLICY

2013 USMPF REPORT
CRUNCH TIME: FISCAL CRISES AND THE ROLE OF MONETARY POLICY
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

2012 USMPF REPORT
HOUSING, MONETARY POLICY, AND THE RECOVERY

2011 USMPF REPORT
STRESSED OUT: MACROPRUDENTIAL PRINCIPLES FOR STRESS TESTING

2010 USMPF REPORT
FINANCIAL CONDITIONS INDEXES: A NEW LOOK AFTER THE FINANCIAL CRISIS

2009 USMPF REPORT
OIL AND THE MACROECONOMY: LESSONS FOR MONETARY POLICY

2008 USMPF REPORT
LEVERAGED LOSSES: LESSONS FROM THE MORTGAGE MARKET MELTDOWN

2007 USMPF REPORT
UNDERSTANDING THE EVOLVING INFLATION PROCESS

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China Economic Summer Institute

The China Economic Summer Institute enables the best Chinese scholars to stay in active contact with top-notch researchers from the rest of the world, and provides a forum to encourage promising young Chinese researchers to work on topics that are important for understanding the Chinese economy. To learn more see the CESI WEBSITE.

SELECTED PAPERS FROM THE 2012 CHINA ECONOMIC SUMMER INSTITUTE:

PUBLIC SCHOOL RESOURCES AND PRIVATE SUBSTITUTES IN URBAN CHINA
by Cheng Yuan and Lei Zhang

A MODEL OF CHINA’S STATE CAPITALISM
by Xi Li, Xuewen Liu, and Yong Wang

A UNIFIED MODEL OF STRUCTURAL ADJUSTMENTS AND INTERNATIONAL TRADE: THEORY AND EVIDENCE FROM CHINA
by Hanwei Huang, Jiandong Ju, and Vivian Z. Yue

*The IGM cosponsors the CESI with Tsinghua University; UC Berkeley’s Program on Institutions and Governance; and the Katholieke Universiteit Leaven’s LICOS Center.

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Research on International Accounting, Enforcement, and Global Convergence

Capital-Market Effects of Securities Regulation: The Role of Implementation and Enforcement
by Hans Christensen, Luzi Hail, and Christian Leuz

Christian Leuz proposes creating a “Global Player Segment” in which firms would use the same reporting rules (ie, IFRS), face the same enforcement mechanisms, and have similar incentives for transparent reporting

Read Leuz’s GPS proposal>
See related research paper>

Global Accounting Convergence and the Potential Adoption of IFRS by the United States
by Luzi Hail, Christian Leuz, and Peter Wysocki

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IGM Working Papers

PAPERS FROM THE IGM WORKING PAPER SERIES ARE AVAILABLE FOR DOWNLOAD HERE.

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