Question A:
Employers that discriminate in hiring will be at a competitive disadvantage, if their customers do not care about their mix of employees, compared with firms that do not discriminate.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question B:
Rising market wages are an important reason — over and above any changes in medical technology, social norms or preferences — why family sizes have fallen over the past century in rich countries.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question A Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
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 Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The only caveat is that if other employees have a taste for discrimination, they may take costly actions against the hiring of minorities.
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 Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Discriminating firms pay higher wages and draw from a smaller labor pool, raising labor costs. See Becker, The Economics of Discrimination
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 Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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This outcome requires more than a lack of concern by customers.
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 David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I believe it in theory but I'm aware of no direct evidence after all these years.
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 Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Unless there are workers who will prefer to be at a firm that is dominated by their ethnic group
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 Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Though, as a number of authors have shown, prejudice can indeed survive in the labor market in the long run.
-see background information here |
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 Janet Currie |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It depends on who they discriminate against. The disadvantage could be de minimus. Or, it could be an advantage in some cases.
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 Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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One can think of special circumstances where this conclusion, due to passing on best workers, does not follow, but they're not general.
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 Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Depends on some subtle issues. Discrimination may results mainly in segregation under some conditions.
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 Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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They would earm more if they did not discriminate unless their other workers are prejudiced. But they may survive anyway if they earn rents.
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 Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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One can imagine cases where employees care and discriminate. It could (unfortunately) benefit the firm, since customers don't care.
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 Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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You want to employ the best workers to maximize profits.
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 Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
 Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Presumably yes if discrimination lowers wages of the discriminated group to levels below what equally productive workers make.
-see background information here |
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 Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It is an empirical question whether this disadvantage will overcome taste for discrimination, and whether markets will eliminate such firms.
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 José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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This disadvantage will be smaller if workers are also prejudiced.
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 Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Seems to depend on the circumstances. For example, the preferences of the incumbent workforce would seem to matter to the employer.
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 Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Nancy Stokey |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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See The Economics of Discrimination; Gary S. Becker; Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1957.
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 Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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But only suffer if there are enough non-discriminating firms.
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 Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Question B Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I would have emhasized rising women's employment opportunities
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Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Janet Currie |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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So says the literature in economic history.
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Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Probably, but not clear how much is causal.
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Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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turns out that it takes a lot of time to raise a kid these days
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Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Certainly this is not a theorem--it depends on preferences and technology-- income versus substitution effects.
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Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ths substitution effect goes this way, but the income effect can go in the opposite direction: with more income you can afford more children
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Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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This is an ill-posed question as I told the organizers. No good economist should answer it. Should have been in productivity not wages.
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Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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We do not have strong evidence on this. Rising FEMALE wages matter. Also rising costs of education, housing.
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Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I get the theory, but I don't know how one can support a judgment about importance.
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Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Nancy Stokey |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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See "On the Interaction between the Quantity and Quality of Children." Gary S. Becker and H. Gregg Lewis; JPE, 1973, 81.
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Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Might be U shaped
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Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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