US

Inequality and Monetary Policy

The ratio of the 90th to the 10th percentile of the US income distribution has been unaffected by the Federal Reserve's unconventional monetary policies since the financial crisis.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Perhaps top 1% share (especially in wealth). Because of the induced stock market boom, but this is uncertain. Certainly not 90-10.
Alesina
Alberto Alesina
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Baicker
Katherine Baicker
University of Chicago Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Banerjee
Abhijit Banerjee
MIT
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Brunnermeier
Markus Brunnermeier
Princeton
Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
Monetary policy affects asset prices -> redistributes wealth (if assets not held symmetrically).See e.g. "Redistribute monetary policy" 2012
Chetty
Raj Chetty
Harvard
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
There are likely distributional effects but unpacking the full extent of them is a continuing area of research. I attach one useful survey.
-see background information here
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Deaton
Angus Deaton
Princeton
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
How could it not have? No idea how much, but why would the distribution of income be invariant to such a thing?
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Strongly Agree
1
Bio/Vote History
A lot of low to mid income workers would have had no jobs absent the Fed's policy. This is a first order impact on the 90-10 income spread.
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Monetary policy has distributional effects; it should however not be made on that basis.
Einav
Liran Einav
Stanford
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Finkelstein
Amy Finkelstein
MIT Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Goldberg
Pinelopi Goldberg
Yale Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Goolsbee
Austan Goolsbee
Chicago
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
compared to what? if the fed hadn't cut rates to 0+QE, the recession would have been deeper and that would have made inequality even worse
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago
Uncertain
2
Bio/Vote History
easy to tell stories of an effect and stories of no effect-- i'm unaware of meaningful evidence.
Hall
Robert Hall
Stanford
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
That policy had essentially no macro effects considering effects on long-term bonds and those of funding with reserves at above-market rates
Hart
Oliver Hart
Harvard
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Quantitative easing has boosted asset prices, reduced interest rates and lowered unemployment. The overall effect on inequality is unclear.
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
The 90th percentile is below the wealth level most affected so the answer is not obvious.
Hoynes
Hilary Hoynes
Berkeley
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
"Income" includes capital gains. The low interest rates have surely contributed to the substantial capital gains that accrued to the rich.
Kaplan
Steven Kaplan
Chicago Booth
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Technology, globalization and regulation are much bigger contributors.
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Probably helped the bottom a bit, but monetary policy would be way, way down on the list of factors affecting inequality.
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Agree with some caveats.
-see background information here
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Fed policy probably helped stock market investors, but it also probably helped employment. Unclear which effect was stronger.
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale
Disagree
4
Bio/Vote History
Saez
Emmanuel Saez
Berkeley
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Samuelson
Larry Samuelson
Yale
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Fed policy may have had an effect, but this is swamped by the effects of other government policies and structural changes in the economy.
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Distribution effects of monetary policy are difficult to determine.
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Shapiro
Carl Shapiro
Berkeley
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Shimer
Robert Shimer
University of Chicago
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
I'm pretty sure the 90-10 income ratio has been affected, but I'm not sure in which direction and I doubt the magnitude is big.
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
How would anyone know? Must be wrong but which way?
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern
Disagree
1
Bio/Vote History