Question A:
Increased unionization of the American workforce would give a noticeable boost to the earnings of current workers who become eligible to be members.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question B:
Increased unionization of the American workforce would give a noticeable boost to wages for the median household.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question C:
Increased unionization of the American workforce would have a net positive effect on employment.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question A Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Stronger unions will likely push up wages for members. Complication is employer response/plant closures, if only a few plants unionize.
-see background information here |
||||
 Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
The size of the increase depends on the sector, but a larger literature finds that unions boost wages of members.
|
||||
 Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
I'm not sure literature has fully wrestled with DiNardo and Lee (2004), although the null wage effect could well be threat effect
|
||||
 Robert Hall |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
In the short-run. Less sure about the long-run.
|
||||
 Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Bargaining power affects compensation. Unions increase workers bargaining power.
|
||||
 Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Would help some private sector workers, but would reduce jobs by sending others overseas. Public sector workers already very unionized.
|
||||
 Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
private sector firms are likely to push back and reduce head counts too
|
||||
 Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
 Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Unionization would help counteract monopsony power.
|
||||
 José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
"Noticeable boost" means only a non-negative effect, which seems about all one can expect from eligibility.
|
||||
 Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Unions tend to both raise and compress wages, so this is not correct for higher earners
|
||||
 James Stock |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
Question B Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Unionization would affect some of low-pay workers, such as in warehouses and delivery, but also impact middle-pay workers in manufacturing.
|
||||
|
Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
It would take more than a couple of Amazon warehouses to make that happen -- maybe 5 to 10 pct points more private sector coverage!
|
||||
|
Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
... also depends on the time horizon
|
||||
|
Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Unless the median worker is in a union, unions are unlikely to help that worker.
|
||||
|
Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
How much of an increase in unionization would have to be specified.
|
||||
|
Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Robert Hall |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Depends on which sectors unionize and whether that extends up to the median.
|
||||
|
Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
i doubt it, but without knowing how many people wind up covered in the counterfactural it is hard to say
|
||||
|
Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Unionization could boost median household earnings, but this will depend on the extent and configuration of unionization.
|
||||
|
José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Hard to imagine that anything but an implausibly large increase in unionization would have a noticeable effect on the median household.
|
||||
|
Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
James Stock |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Small market share
|
||||
|
Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
Question C Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Overall employment effect would depend on whether unions negotiate less automation and more worker-friendly technologies, which is uncertain
-see background information here |
||||
|
Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
More union membership may or may not reduce employment. It's unlikely to raise it.
|
||||
|
Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Presuming the demand for labor is decreasing in wages seems reasonable.
|
||||
|
Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
There are, however, arguments pointing in this direction (by analogy w/ the literature on minimum wages). See the book "What Do Unions Do?"
|
||||
|
Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Robert Hall |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Unlikely to have efficient bargaining between firms and unions and so a higher wage will lead to lower labor demand.
|
||||
|
Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Higher compensation may reduce labor force participation of spouses or lead to earlier retirement. Income effect.
|
||||
|
Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Only have to look to Western Europe to see the effects of increased unionization. Encourages outsourcing and increased capital intensity.
|
||||
|
Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
same caveat as the last question
|
||||
|
Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Not sure what is meant by "net positive effect on employment." Unions raise wages, which pushes in the direction of lower employment LEVELS
|
||||
|
William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Unionization can have a direct, positive effect in imperfectly competitive markets, and an indirect effect through a healthier economy.
|
||||
|
José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
I don't know what the argument here might be.
|
||||
|
Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
James Stock |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
