Question A:
The ECB should aim to achieve an inflation rate that averages 2% over time.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question B:
The ECB should take account of the environmental implications of its policy decisions.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question C:
The objectives set for the ECB by Treaty should make maximum sustainable employment of equal importance as price stability.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question A Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
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 Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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In today's world 2% doesn't seem as attractive as it did in 2005. Times have changed - 1% or 0% may be better. 2% may not be achievable.
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 Pol Antras |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
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it all comes to the definition of ``average''. If fuzzy, may be counterproductive
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 Nicholas Bloom |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I know of no theory or empirics showing a single objective Central Bank, with that objective being 2%, is optimal. Probably, but not certain
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 Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Paul De Grauwe |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Ernst Fehr |
Universität Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Xavier Freixas |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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More flexibility is required to take into account contingencies
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 Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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If estimates of r* remain low it should consider adjusting the target upward sometime down the road. See Andrade et al. at Brookings
-see background information here |
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 Francesco Giavazzi |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Should allow catchup of past undershoot. One day a move to 3 per cent may be imaginable, allowing more leeway for countercyclical expansion
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 Beata Javorcik |
University of Oxford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Since in monetary policy credibility is king, the ECB should not change but rather hold on to its inherited objective.
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 Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Not my area but evidence exists suggesting inflation targeting in flexible way works well (though not clear how big a change this would be)
-see background information here -see background information here -see background information here |
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 Thierry Mayer |
Sciences-Po | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Costas Meghir |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Peter Neary |
Oxford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Why 2% rather than 1% or 3%? Where is the scientific background for this particular number? I suspect NONE.
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 Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Torsten Persson |
Stockholm University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Christopher Pissarides |
London School of Economics and Political Science | Bio/Vote History | ||
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more flexibility is needed here to deal with unpredictable events, like the covid recession or the debt crisis of 2012.
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 Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Should be higher! But they will continue to struggle to reach 2.
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 Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Imran Rasul |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I think that the ECB should aim at flexible inflation targeting understood as a medium term quantifiable objective.
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 Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I would replace the close but below 2% for a 2% objective over the medium run.
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 Hélène Rey |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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If it adopted this rule, it could have to tighten abruptly after overshooting the target which could be destabilising for the euro area.
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 Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Daniel Sturm |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 John Van Reenen |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Need for symmetry as low inflation as bad as high. There is good argument for targeting higher rate like 3% or 4% to avoid zero lower bound
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 John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Symmetry around 2% would be much better than "below but close to"
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 Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Karl Whelan |
University College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I certainly agree with the averaging approach. You could argue for a higher value than 2% given history of zero bound issues since 2000.
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 Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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That would be useful step. I would not mind a higher average target, eg 3%.
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 Fabrizio Zilibotti |
Yale University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Question B Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It's not clear to me how much impact central bank decisions have on environmental questions but to the extent it does they should do.
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Pol Antras |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Seems like there should be other entities that can more directly take charge of environmental regulation.
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Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
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``take into account'' is again ambiguous. It should know about it but its standard mandate has priority.
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Nicholas Bloom |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Monetary policy should focus on macro issues - inflation, unemployment etc - not social and environmental issues.
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Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Paul De Grauwe |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ernst Fehr |
Universität Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Xavier Freixas |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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But will likely conclude that those implications are small. The ECB cannot be a substitute for fiscal and regulatory policies in that area.
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Francesco Giavazzi |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The corporate bond programme is behind the curve in this respect.
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Beata Javorcik |
University of Oxford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Recall Tinbergen: one policy instrument per objective. Keep monetary policy for inflation targeting, use Ordnungspolitik otherwise.
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Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Clear that via effect on econ activity ECB policy has env implications but not obvious if mon policy is best way to address externalities
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Thierry Mayer |
Sciences-Po | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Costas Meghir |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Peter Neary |
Oxford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I guess that the ECB could/should take environmental concerns into account in its bank prudential policy, not its monetary policy.
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Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Torsten Persson |
Stockholm University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Christopher Pissarides |
London School of Economics and Political Science | Bio/Vote History | ||
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A no brainer. Need to save the planet, everyone should take into account the environmental implications of their decisions even the mighty
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Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Imran Rasul |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
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As Jean Tirole recommended in his speech at the colloquium in honor of Benoit Coeure: “Use the proper instrument.”
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Hélène Rey |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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For example the ECB should lead on TCFD disclosure
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Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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ECB does not have effective tools to achieve environmental goals. Policy makers, consumers and voters need to take responsibility for this.
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Daniel Sturm |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Quantitative easing could avoid buying fossil fuel related bonds.
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John Van Reenen |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Bad idea to load too many targets on one instrument
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John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Environmental objectives call for policy tools other than monetary policy
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Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Karl Whelan |
University College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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While price stability is ECB's primary objective, it is required by Treaty to support the EU's broader goals, including evironmental policy.
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Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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As Tinbergen said, one instrument = one target. Bringing inflation up to the target would already be a big achievement.
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Fabrizio Zilibotti |
Yale University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Question C Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It's a complex question with political as well as economic aspects. Having employment as an important secondary target may be better.
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Pol Antras |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
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minimizing the output gap is more important than minimizing distance of inflation to target. Fortunately, they largely coincide.
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Nicholas Bloom |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Paul De Grauwe |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ernst Fehr |
Universität Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Xavier Freixas |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Even though the current emphasis on the inflation objective as a "medium term" objective already allows for that.
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Francesco Giavazzi |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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This is not as crucial as is often supposed, especially if inflation target becomes symmetrical.
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Beata Javorcik |
University of Oxford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Treaty is wise and respects Tinbergen rule. If you want more employment, use fiscal measures or, again, a better Ordnungspolitik.
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Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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While I can see arguments for Fed or BoE, it would be much harder for ECB w/ so many euro ctrys, emply better addressed with fiscal policies
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Thierry Mayer |
Sciences-Po | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Costas Meghir |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Peter Neary |
Oxford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
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In this sense, its statutory mandate should be made more similar to that of the Fed. In practice it already pursued this objective too.
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Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Torsten Persson |
Stockholm University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Christopher Pissarides |
London School of Economics and Political Science | Bio/Vote History | ||
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employment should be taken into account but maybe not as much weight on it as price stability
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Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Imran Rasul |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Flex IT and commitment to nominal GDP targeting path best way to minimise output vol in short run and achieve price stability in medium run
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Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
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An irrelevant hypothetical question: The Treaty is not going to be changed anytime soon.
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Hélène Rey |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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ECB has a legal obligation to support the [EU’s] general economic policies; objectives laid down in Article 3 of the Treaty.so more general
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Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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central banks do not have tools to achieve long run employment goals.
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Daniel Sturm |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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John Van Reenen |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Monetary policy can best contribute to maximum sustainable employment by maintaining price stability, so that should be primary
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Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Karl Whelan |
University College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Tricky one. I'm not sure ECB and the Fed really behave much differently despite different mandates. Treaty Change is impossible anyway.
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Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Yeah, sure, it sounds nice. But we don't know how to measure maximum sustainable unemployment. And unemployment is not just a macro variable
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Fabrizio Zilibotti |
Yale University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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