Question A:
Freer trade improves productive efficiency and offers consumers better choices, and in the long run these gains are much larger than any effects on employment.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question B:
On average, citizens of the U.S. have been better off with the North American Free Trade Agreement than they would have been if the trade rules for the U.S., Canada and Mexico prior to NAFTA had remained in place.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question A Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Economists often understate short-term employment costs, which are significant and unequally distributed, but probably less than benefits.
|
||||
 Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Gains and losses are not spread evenly. Retraining programs are an important part of trade policy.
|
||||
 Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Not sure how to compare the gains to consumers with long run effects on employment. They might both be positive!
|
||||
 Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Janet Currie |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Note that not everyone is better off.
|
||||
 Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
The "gains" are positive a general additive sense, but that does not avoid costs to some.
|
||||
 Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Consider any tribe or group that was isolated from trade for centuries to see the long run results of autarky
|
||||
 Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
General message of trade theory. But the question is how long the "long run" is.
|
||||
 Claudia Goldin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Trade creates tremendous benefits but causes substantial job losses Do current policies fully compensate displaced workers? Probably not
|
||||
 Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
liberalization has such large long-run benefits that it can fund short-run dislocation assistance
|
||||
 Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
The world's endowment is allocated more efficiently under free trade, making the avg person better off. Individuals may face adjustmt costs.
|
||||
 Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Description of the gains is right, and long run employment might be higher too. We can try to compensate short run job losers.
|
||||
 Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Jim Feyrer has some ingenious papers finding evidence of income gains from trade.
-see background information here |
||||
 Edward Lazear |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Estimates used by CEA of the effect of complete free trade are as large as $500 billion per year - enormous even if off by a scalar.
|
||||
 Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Cecilia Rouse |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
I agree with the statement as worded. There could be other, less desirable, impacts as well.
|
||||
 Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Gains are sufficiently large to finance the compensation of workers in loosing sectors.
|
||||
 Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
If that's not right, almost all of economics is wrong.
|
||||
 Hyun Song Shin |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 James Stock |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Nancy Stokey |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Nevertheless, there are winners and losers. Trade does not make everybody better off, and a good policy should take this into account.
|
||||
 Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
This needs more nuance: most people win, and the winners gain a lot. But there are losers from trade who have not in fact been compensated.
|
||||
 Luigi Zingales |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
Question B Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
NAFTA was small potatoes relative to rising China trade. My hunch is that both costs and benefits were modest.
|
||||
|
Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Janet Currie |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
On "average" is an important qualifier.
|
||||
|
Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
See my answer to question A. However, short- and medium-run effects of NAFTA, especially on employment and wages in the US, unclear.
|
||||
|
Claudia Goldin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
True for the average but complicated issues of social welfare functions here. better compensation for folks who do not gain might help
|
||||
|
Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Not to mention benefits to Canadians and Mexicans! We should take a global perspective.
|
||||
|
Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
The question is about averages. Distributional income and employment effects hard to measure, but probably significant.
|
||||
|
Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Edward Lazear |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Although difficult to estimate, there is little evidence of negative effects of NAFTA and the positives are obvious.
|
||||
|
Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Cecilia Rouse |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Such is the result of much of the empirical literature.
|
||||
|
Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
This is true about the average.
|
||||
|
Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Hyun Song Shin |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
James Stock |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Nancy Stokey |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
But the gains have probably been very small.
|
||||
|
Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Luigi Zingales |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
The key word is on average: there are large distributional effects.
|
||||
