Question A:
Right now, the central focus of fiscal policy should be on temporary measures to provide protection and promote rapid economic recovery rather than trying to advance other objectives, such as reducing debt, tackling climate change or addressing inequality.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question B:
Cutting taxes on firms (or delaying tax collection) will allow more of them to survive and be more effective than public spending for triggering a rapid economic recovery.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question C:
European recovery fund disbursements to crisis-hit countries should be primarily in the form of grants rather than loans.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question D:
European recovery fund disbursements to crisis-hit countries should not be made on condition of commitments to reform by recipients.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question A Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Drops in GDP in many countries are so large that we need to get back to close to where we were before we take on other tasks.
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 Pol Antras |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Essential to focus on reducing bankruptcies and reducing unemployment. Using the appropriate tools.
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 Nicholas Bloom |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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We are entering the medium run of the COVID pandemic and so should also start of focus on inequality, climate change and eventually debt.
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 Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Paul De Grauwe |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Without quick responses much permanent economic damage will be done preventing recovery and making achieving other objectives more difficult
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 Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Ernst Fehr |
Universität Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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9
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 Xavier Freixas |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Francesco Giavazzi |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Bio/Vote History | ||
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This is not really a question for economists, this is question for elected decision makers.
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 Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It doesn’t preclude other secondary objectives being important in policy design
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 Beata Javorcik |
University of Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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"Agree", yes, it should be the central focus. BUT given that these measure have secondary effects anyway, they need attention as well.
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 Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Given knock-on and hysteresis effects, this likely makes sense. Some stimulus could be used for other objectives, e.g., climate.
-see background information here |
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 Thierry Mayer |
Sciences-Po | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Costas Meghir |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The objectives may not be contradictory. Fiscal stimulus can be used to support climate objectives and targeted to reduce inequality
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 Peter Neary |
Oxford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Treating this just as a liquidity crisis is a mistake. It would cripple firms with debt & fail to favor reallocation towards sustainability
-see background information here -see background information here |
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 Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Torsten Persson |
Stockholm University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Christopher Pissarides |
London School of Economics and Political Science | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The social objectives could be achieved as part and parcel of the “other objectives”
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 Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Focus on supporting aggregate demand now - recovery projects are important but they will affect the economy with a delay
|
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 Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Hélène Rey |
London Business School | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Daniel Sturm |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 John Van Reenen |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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This is about fiscal policy. There is a case for a reset in more general growth policy
-see background information here |
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 John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Beatrice Weder di Mauro |
The Graduate Institute, Geneva | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Karl Whelan |
University College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Need clarity of purpose when so many interest groups chase so much money
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 Fabrizio Zilibotti |
Yale University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Question B Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I think it depends on the levels of tax and the structure of the tax system.
|
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Pol Antras |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Maybe, as long as we still perceive to be a situation that won't be with us by the end of the year
|
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Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Helping viable but insolvent firms is a priority, essential for the short run, essential for the long run
|
||||
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Nicholas Bloom |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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There is no strong evidence on this so I am unsure. Plus the question is too vague as depends taxes and types of spending.
|
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Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Insuring the survival of viable firms is essential but there are better options than permanent tax cuts
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Paul De Grauwe |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ernst Fehr |
Universität Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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7
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Xavier Freixas |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Agree, but not across the board, only in sectors hit by the pandemic. There is a case for raising taxes on firms operating in other sectors
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Francesco Giavazzi |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Although tax deferrals might give rapid cash boost, spending can likely be better targeted.
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Beata Javorcik |
University of Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Tax reductions, particularly in the form of loss carry backwards to firms over several years, provide protection and boost the recovery.
|
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Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Firm survival, esp. of SMEs, is important but it is less clear that corp tax reductions are the only or most effective way to address crisis
-see background information here |
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Thierry Mayer |
Sciences-Po | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Costas Meghir |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Agreed - but this may not be the best way to go about things: supporting payroll conditionally on keeping workers may be a better targeted.
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Peter Neary |
Oxford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Reducing taxes on profits would be no help for firms that are facing losses.
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Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Torsten Persson |
Stockholm University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Christopher Pissarides |
London School of Economics and Political Science | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Main objective should be to help firms survive the temporary crisis
|
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Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Since firms that are doing poorly pay little or no corporate taxes, why cut taxes for firms that are doing well?
|
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Hélène Rey |
London Business School | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Daniel Sturm |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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John Van Reenen |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Beatrice Weder di Mauro |
The Graduate Institute, Geneva | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Karl Whelan |
University College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The most effective programmes so far in keeping firms alive have been public spending on wage subsidies.
|
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Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Speed of effect is crucial, not survival of a maximum of firms
|
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Fabrizio Zilibotti |
Yale University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Question C Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I think it should be a mixture of grants and loans. The system may be used going forward and grants may be transfers rather than insurance.
|
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Pol Antras |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
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even if loans, mutualisation is useful. grants, if allocated efficiently across countries, would be even better
|
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Nicholas Bloom |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Paul De Grauwe |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ernst Fehr |
Universität Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Xavier Freixas |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Actually a combination of grands and loans would be better
|
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Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Francesco Giavazzi |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Beata Javorcik |
University of Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Definitely not in the form of loans. Grants are better - but combined with dividends, as proposed by SAFE, the Pandemic Equity Fund, excel.
-see background information here |
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Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Some funds should be distributed as grants but argument in favor is political rather than economic. Focus on how hard a country is hit.
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Thierry Mayer |
Sciences-Po | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Costas Meghir |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Peter Neary |
Oxford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
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This is essential for countries with little fiscal space to invest in infrastructure, health and clean energy without facing crippling debt
|
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Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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This is a political decision linked to a broader issue of fiscal insurance and redistribution within the EU.
|
||||
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Torsten Persson |
Stockholm University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Question has many facets. As grants will be financed by EU-wide borrowing, their appeal hinges on how the needed EU-wide taxes are raised.
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Christopher Pissarides |
London School of Economics and Political Science | Bio/Vote History | ||
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No point helping them out now only to overburden them with debts a few years later
|
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Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
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Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
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Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
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Hélène Rey |
London Business School | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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||||
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Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
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Daniel Sturm |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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John Van Reenen |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Beatrice Weder di Mauro |
The Graduate Institute, Geneva | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Karl Whelan |
University College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Even if the terms of debt to the EU is better than being offered by the market, the EU debt could influence access to market funding.
|
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Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Raising public debts is a bad idea
|
||||
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Fabrizio Zilibotti |
Yale University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Question D Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
This is a difficult one. Economic conditionalities or Rule of Law ones or both? Good arguments both ways.
|
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Pol Antras |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Surely depends on which reforms are put on the table
|
||||
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Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
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|
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Nicholas Bloom |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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|
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Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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|
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Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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|
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Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Conditioning on minimal commitments to reform when relevant is reasonable before engaging substantial financial support
|
||||
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Paul De Grauwe |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
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|
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Ernst Fehr |
Universität Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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|
||||
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Xavier Freixas |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
This is an opportunity to improve efficiency, which is hindered by the national political coalitions protecting some constituencies
|
||||
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Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
This is important as long as these are funds that are paid out rapidly.
|
||||
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Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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|
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Francesco Giavazzi |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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|
||||
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Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Bio/Vote History | ||
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|
||||
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Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Stigma effect, and renewed international divisiveness militate against an overlay of conditionality on this crisis response tool
|
||||
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Beata Javorcik |
University of Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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|
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Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
In some countries, the inner politics are road-blocked. Relief can only come from outside conditionality... In such cases, I am in favor.
|
||||
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Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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|
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Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
If idea for fund is solidarity & joint insurance, then no conditions. But EU should promote reforms&rule of law but has bad track record.
|
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Thierry Mayer |
Sciences-Po | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Costas Meghir |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
It may depend on the context. Some conditionality can be productive. On the other hand the EU should not be too intrusive
|
||||
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Peter Neary |
Oxford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Conditionality and monitoring might be beneficial to recipient countries, if done by the EU Commission and not by "frugal" governments (!)
|
||||
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Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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|
||||
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Torsten Persson |
Stockholm University | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Conditionality may be needed to block further deterioration of rule of law.
|
||||
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Christopher Pissarides |
London School of Economics and Political Science | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Otherwise they could be spent on consumption
|
||||
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Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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|
||||
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Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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|
||||
|
Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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|
||||
|
Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Some conditionality is likely to be helpful for some countries (and harmless for others).
|
||||
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Hélène Rey |
London Business School | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
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Daniel Sturm |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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|
||||
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John Van Reenen |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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|
||||
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John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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|
||||
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Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Given that there are great spillovers from country to country, giving extra incentives to getting contact-tracing right would be desirable.
|
||||
|
Beatrice Weder di Mauro |
The Graduate Institute, Geneva | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Karl Whelan |
University College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
The spening should be as is normal with EU programmes with various checks and balances. It's not appropriate to link it to so-called reforms
|
||||
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Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Negotiating empty promises will take far too long
|
||||
|
Fabrizio Zilibotti |
Yale University | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
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