Question A:
The US economy would be substantially stronger today if the state and local ‘stay-at-home’ orders had been more uniform and lasted longer in the first half of the year.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question B:
The economy will receive a substantial boost as soon as K-12 schools can be safely opened in person nationwide.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question A Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
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 Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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With better lockdown policies, there would have been tens of thousands of fewer deaths, but probably not much better GDP outcomes.
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 Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Korea is the best case scenario. Germany had its act together. The U.S. response was chaotic, and this has slowed the eventual rebound
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 Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Less people would have died--that is what we know for sure.
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 Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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more uniform: yes; longer: less clear vs, say, strict mandating of masks and social distancing.
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 Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The intervention should have been earlier, more targeted, and more thoughtful (complemented with more efficient testing and tracing).
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 Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The economy would be stronger if the stay at home time was used productively to rapidly ramp up testing and other virus responses.
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 David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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There are many many puzzling features of the dynamics of the pandemic, both here and around the world. So hard to know.
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 Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Yes, although we have since learned that very extensive use of masks, without a stay-at-home order, would have worked and been less costly.
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 Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Widespread availability of testing enabling targeted stay-at-home orders together with contact tracing would have made for stronger economy
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 Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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We needed to slow the spread of the virus (still do). Consistency would help as would but it isn't just about shelter-in-place
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 Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Unclear benefits of stay at home without without rigorous tracing, contact tracing, quarantining etc
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 Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Research shows that almost all precautionary behavior would have occurred absent government orders
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 Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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More targeted lockdowns that encouraged more economic activity would have done better.
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 Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Natural caution was very important, hard to know if just stay at home would have been enough to control the virus spread.
-see background information here |
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 Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Voluntary social distancing has been more uniform than lockdown policies.
-see background information here |
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 Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Yes if uno]iform pol
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 Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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There are great returns to mitigating a potentially exponential process early, and doing so uniformly (to avoid weakest-link vulnerabilies.
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 José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Unknowable. More businesses would have failed early on. Lots would depend on policies after the stay-at-home orders expired.
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 Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Stronger lockdowns in some European countries have not prevented the need for second lockdowns.
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 James Stock |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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But only if followed up by masks, testing & quarantine, etc upon reopening; more severe shutdowns alone wouldn't keep the virus suppressed.
-see background information here |
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 Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Yeah, probably but so many variables at play that it is hard to be sure about anything. Laws are not enforced.
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 Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I would be very confident if the longer & more uniform closings were accompanied by more testing and better tracing.
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Question B Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The key word is SAFELY. That means COVID is under control. If schools open without that, second wave would be much worse and GDP would fall.
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Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Boost will come *years later* when students reach the labor market with more skills. Status quo is a disaster for human capital formation!
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Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I don't know why opening of schools would have a large causal effect, but may be it is a signal the economy can coordinate on.
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Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Opening schools likely has a direct effect but also the question implies an environment in which the virus is under more control.
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David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Especially women
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Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Parents could then resume more productive work. Also, this likely generates short-run and long-run benefits for children.
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Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Likely to depend on time frame. If schools accelerate the virus spread a short-term boost might be more than offset later
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Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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"as soon as" is different from "because". When schools are safe to open, other activities will also be safe, making for a substantial boost.
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Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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If causality is pandemic over, economy expands and schools open, it is the pandemic over, not the schools opening, that is the cause.
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Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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You can't go to work if your kid has nowhere to go
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Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I agree bc the question implies that we have a vaccine or herd immunity
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Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ability to have universal K-12 in-person schooling would be a sign of advanced progress in all respects against the virus.
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Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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presumably other activities would also become safe then too
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Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Partly causal, but more as an indicator.
-see background information here |
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Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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‘Safely’ is big part of plan.
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Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Education has long-run returns as well as well as great short-run returns in facilitating labor force participation of others.
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José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Emphasis on "safely".
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Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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James Stock |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The predicate for safe K-12 reopening is suppression of the virus and a strategy to keep it so; that plus freeing parents' time is key.
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Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Will certainly help families with small children. Female labor force participation is way down. Same as it ever was.
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Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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