Question A:
The ECB's asset purchases over the past two years have reduced the threat of deflation in the euro area as a whole.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question B:
If the economic outlook in the euro area becomes less favorable, then increasing the ECB's asset purchase program (in size or duration) would substantially increase the euro area's economic growth over the following five years.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question A Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
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 Philippe Aghion |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It's difficult to know the effect of these asset purchases on consumer price inflation.
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 Pol Antras |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Richard Baldwin |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Timothy J. Besley |
LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hard to see how monetary expansion, in whatever form, would do nothing for activity or inflation. Cannot think of strong perverse effects
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 Nicholas Bloom |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Agnès Bénassy-Quéré |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I am skeptical that there was a real threat of deflation
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 Paul De Grauwe |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Ernst Fehr |
Universität Zurich | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Xavier Freixas |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The evidence (e.g. Andrade et al. (2016)) points to reductions in risk premia as well as in expected future policy rates at announcement.
-see background information here |
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 Luis Garicano |
LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Francesco Giavazzi |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hard to distinguish between role of purchases and of negative rates (via the exchange rate channel). Both probably helped
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 Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Martin Hellwig |
Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The associated compression of bank profitability had a significant countervailing effect.
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 Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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100 years of monetary theory cannot all be wrong.
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 Henrik Kleven |
Princeton | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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APP has desired real effects iff credit supply is the problem, not demand, nor structural reform. Moreover, is mild deflation a threat?
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 Per Krusell |
Stockholm University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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QE likely helped w/ deflationary pressures but by how much is unclear. There are also negative effects that question sets aside.
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 Costas Meghir |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Peter Neary |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Reduced but not eliminated. Monetary policy alone cannot get the EU out of deflation, only a rise in external demand or a fiscal stimulus.
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 Kevin O'Rourke |
Oxford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Torsten Persson |
Stockholm University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Christopher Pissarides |
London School of Economics and Political Science | Bio/Vote History | ||
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one of the few things we know with some confidence in macro is that increasing the supply of money reduces the risk of deflation
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 Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Inflation expectations in Eurozone became 'de-anchored' by summer 2014. ECB action, though too long delayed, was essential to stop deflation
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 Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Panelist meant to vote Strongly Agree
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 Hélène Rey |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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They ensured that no self -fulling vicious risk premium dynamics happen in periphery and appropriate loose monetary conditions remain.
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 Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 John Van Reenen |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Beatrice Weder di Mauro |
The Graduate Institute, Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Karl Whelan |
University College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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QE is complex but most careful research shows it impacts long-term rates. ECB program has definitely reduced sovereign borrowing rates.
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 Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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This is what comes from empirical studies, but SD are often large.
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 Fabrizio Zilibotti |
Yale University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Question B Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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Philippe Aghion |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It seems quite uncertain to me what the effect on growth of the asset purchases. It will depend among other things on how they are unwound
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Pol Antras |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Richard Baldwin |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Timothy J. Besley |
LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
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one may disagree with ``strongly''. but it would work in the right direction.
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Nicholas Bloom |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Agnès Bénassy-Quéré |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The key issue is to maintain nominal interest rates below nominal growth during a certain period.
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Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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the ECB program is not targeted directly to stimulate growth. It may help the economy recovering but it is not its main goal
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Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I am not convinced that simply more of the same (QE) would have a significant impact at this stage.
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Paul De Grauwe |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ernst Fehr |
Universität Zurich | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Xavier Freixas |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Economic activity can be helped by this type of measure in the short run, but not in the long run
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Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It could help marginally by exploiting the same channels, though possibly with decreasing returns. But alternatives exist: fiscal policy.
-see background information here |
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Luis Garicano |
LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Francesco Giavazzi |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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purchases have achieved what they were supposed to. Unlikely they can do more--though in the case described they should not be removed
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Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Martin Hellwig |
Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods | Bio/Vote History | ||
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If slow growth is due to high leverage of nonfinancial and financial firms, substantial new growth requires that to be dealt with first.
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Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Benefit mainly in the stressed countries; effectiveness of this policy nearing its limit.
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Henrik Kleven |
Princeton | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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APP may have opposite effect: Expectations of unsustainable debt levels at states and banks leading to low interest rates & low growth.
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Per Krusell |
Stockholm University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Perhaps one could make a case for an extension of the program (in case of a shock) but I am skeptical about further expansion.
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Costas Meghir |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Peter Neary |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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"Substantial" Is a big ask, and growth will ultimately be affected more by structural issues and demand-side shocks
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Kevin O'Rourke |
Oxford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hard to tell. In any event, ECB aims to manage inflation rather than boost growth.
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Torsten Persson |
Stockholm University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Christopher Pissarides |
London School of Economics and Political Science | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It will bring confidence that deflation will not return but whether this is enough to "substantially" increase growth is uncertain
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Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Major constraints on expanding asset purchase program and diminishing marginal returns.
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Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Not clear what the question means: inflation, real growth, financial stability? if it means weaker growth and inflation then strongly agree
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Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hélène Rey |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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If spreads diverge (self-fulfilling debt crisis) in peri[hery, restoring monetary policy tramsmission will be key.
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Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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John Van Reenen |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Diminishing returns to such a policy
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Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Beatrice Weder di Mauro |
The Graduate Institute, Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Karl Whelan |
University College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The disagreement is because of the word "substantial". Not sure that any realistic policy can "substantially" improve European growth rates.
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Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Available assets are getting scarce.
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Fabrizio Zilibotti |
Yale University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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