Question A:
The Bank for International Settlements defines a central bank digital currency as follows: ‘In simple terms, a central bank digital currency (CBDC) would be a digital banknote. It could be used by individuals to pay businesses, shops or each other (a 'retail CBDC'), or between financial institutions to settle trades in financial markets (a ‘wholesale CBDC').’
For developed countries, a central bank digital currency that is available to the public at large would offer social benefits that exceed the associated costs or risks.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question B:
Central banks that do not introduce their own digital money risk losing the ability to conduct effective monetary policy.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question C:
The introduction of a central bank digital currency is unlikely to have major effects on the economy.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question A Participant Responses
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question B:
Central banks that do not introduce their own digital money risk losing the ability to conduct effective monetary policy.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question C:
The introduction of a central bank digital currency is unlikely to have major effects on the economy.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
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 Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Depends on how monetary institutions evolve & I worry about end of privacy: gov't having too much information about individual transactions
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 Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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A lot depends on the specific design of the currency and its rules. Would it be as anonymous as commercial offerings, for example?
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 David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The benefits of CBDC are large relative to the current bank-railed payment system, but bank-railed payments could be improved a lot.
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 Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Unclear whether the central bank would design a safe low transaction cost digital currency. Irs system to pay taxes does not impress
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 Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Benefits are mainly financial inclusion. Risks are cyber-security related. Balance of risks and benefits is uncertain. Proceed w/ caution
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 Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Not clear a central bank can efficiently run a retail payments system for an entire country. Maybe just for intermediaries?
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 Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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In units of the national currency and freely exchangeable at parity or as a separate entity?
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 Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It would replace inefficient credit cards, paper currency, and bank transfers
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 Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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CBs will have to issue digital currencies of some kind. With the right kind, the effects will be beneficial.
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 Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Improving electronic tech is also possible without creating Big Brother.
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 Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Can everyone run into this currency during stress and dis-intermediate the rest of the financial system? What private alternatives exist?
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 Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
 Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Agree but a lot depends on the details, and there are many.
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 Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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One would hope that some significant transactions costs could be avoided.
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 José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Not clear how much benefits CBDC would produce over an instant payment system ran by CBs.
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 Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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One concern is that this would eventually crowd out traditional currency, with uncertain consequences
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 James Stock |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Question B Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I don't see why the US or the UK cannot pursue standard monetary policy without digital currency.
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Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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it also depends on what it counts as assets of the banking system etc. One can imagine other ways to keep monetary control
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Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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"Digital dollarization" is a bigger threat to smaller emerging market economies and not much of a threat for large economic blocks.
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Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Small open economies are vulnerable. Private fintech payments can disrupt large economies. Strong CBDCs can deflect invasive forms of money.
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Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Not clear yet that private digital currencies are or will be good as money substitutes.
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Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The alternative private payment mechanisms/vehicles can be strictly regulated, limiting potential loss of monetary control/payments.
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Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The rise of digital payment systems, like previous financial innovations, will likely alter the transmission mechanisms of monetary policy
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Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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All important central banks implement monetary policy through setting the interest rate on reserves.
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Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Conventional data gathering could be substantially without potential loss of privacy.
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Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Assuming any systemic private alternatives are well regulated, doubt this would be necessary to maintain control.
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Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Monetary innovations appear to already have complicated monetary policy; the addition effect is difficult to assess.
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José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Unlikely, given CB's regulatory power, though CBDC may allow for the implementation of additional monetary policy measures
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Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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But probably not for some time.
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James Stock |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Question C Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Reduced transaction costs will be positive (how much? Unclear). Reduced privacy may be negative, especially combined with other surveillance
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Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The answer depends on the country.
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Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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A widely used CBDC disrupts banking, causing a big change in intermediation. That may turn out well if banking is not otherwise disrupted.
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Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Depends on the economy. Effects in advanced countries likely to be minor, in underbanked developing economies potentially substantial.
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Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Probably a big effect on commercial banks, among others.
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Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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In the short run. Long run, less clear—low/no cost digital payments would change a lot of things
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Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The efficiency gains would be a a tiny fraction of GDP.
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Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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In the long run, the effects will be significant for payment systems as well as monetary policy.
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Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Doing a better job with current system would be as good as trying digital currencies.
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Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Certainly depends on regulating the private alternatives well.
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Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Agree in the short-term, but hard to forecast the longer-term effects of any major technological change.
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Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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A central bank digital currency might reduce transaction costs substantially
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William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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One suspects the effects would not be major, but predictions about new technologies are notoriously difficult.
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José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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James Stock |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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