Finance Panel

The Clark Center for Global Markets explores finance professors’ views on vital policy issues via our Finance Panel.  We regularly poll over 40 individuals on a range of timely and relevant topics.  Panelists not only have the opportunity to respond to a poll’s statements, but an opportunity to comment and provide additional resources, if they wish. The Clark Center then shares the results with the public in a straightforward and concise format.

Please note that from September 2022, the language in our polls will use just two modifiers to refer to the size of an effect:

  • ‘Substantial’: when an effect is large enough that it would make a difference that matters for the behavior involved.
  • ‘Measurable’: when the direction of the effect is clear, but perhaps experts would differ as to whether it is substantial.
Finance

Passive Investors and US Banks

Regulator Probes BlackRock and Vanguard Over Huge Stakes in U.S. Banks – The WSJ reports that ‘The FDIC is scrutinizing whether the index-fund giants are sticking to passive roles when it comes to their investments in U.S. banks.’

The exemption of passive asset managers from banking rules - such as needing permission when they acquire shares above the 10% threshold - generates measurable risks to the accomplishment of the FDIC's mission.

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology
 
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Banking
Finance

Short Selling and Asset Values

Question A:

Allowing short selling of financial securities, such as stocks and government bonds, leads to prices that, on average, are closer to their fundamental values.

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology
Question B:

When short sellers start to establish substantial short positions in a stock, the stock is likely to have been overvalued.

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology
Question C:

Requiring investors to disclose short positions in a stock at the equivalent threshold as they are required to do for long positions would improve the informativeness of stock prices.

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology
 
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Financial Markets & Banking
Finance

Modern Portfolio Theory

This Finance survey examines that Harry Markowitz, the Nobel Prize-winning pioneer of modern portfolio theory, passed away earlier this year: https://afajof.org/news/in-memoriam-harry-markowitz-past-president-of-the-american-finance-association-1927-2023/ (a) Application of the principles of modern portfolio theory allows investors in practice to achieve substantial improvements in the risk-expected return trade-off relative to naive strategies such as equal-weighting that do not take account of return covariances; (b) A continued fall in commercial real estate valuations would trigger another round of banking panic 
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Financial Markets & Banking
Finance

Quantitative Tightening and Demand for US Treasuries

This Finance survey examines (a) The Federal Reserve has begun quantitative tightening (QT) to reduce the size of its balance sheet. Fed holdings of Treasury securities have declined by $800 billion relative to the March 2020 peak. The Fed currently holds $4.9 trillion of Treasury securities, significantly larger than the $2.5 trillion holdings prior to the Covid pandemic. A reduction in Fed holdings of Treasury securities measurably increases the interest rate on long-term U.S. Treasury bonds (b) A reduction in Fed holdings of Treasury securities measurably increases volatility in the Treasury market

  
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Bonds
Finance

Long-Term Capital Management

This Finance survey examines: (a) September 2023 was the 25th anniversary of the collapse of Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM). In response to LTCM's troubles, the Federal Reserve orchestrated a multi-billion dollar rescue package by a consortium of banks and it cut the Federal funds rate target by 75 basis points within six weeks. The hedge fund sector's contribution to systemic risk is substantially lower today than at the time of LTCM; (b) Financial market participants' expectation that the Fed will aggressively ease monetary policy in response to financial market dislocations is a substantial source of financial instability. 
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Financial Crises
Finance

Enhanced Regulation of Private Fund Advisers

This Finance survey examines (a) The benefits of the new SEC rules on private funds - which require private funds to provide transparency to their investors regarding the fees and expenses and other terms of their relationship with private fund advisers and the performance of such private funds - substantially exceed their costs; (b) The new SEC rules will have a substantially negative impact on the industry by stifling capital formation and reducing competition; (c) It is appropriate policy for the SEC to impose such rules on private funds even though the investors (limited partners) are sophisticated entities 
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Financial Regulation
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Recent Polls

Capital Markets Union

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Test Scores and College Admissions

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Passive Investors and US Banks

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Artificial Intelligence Act

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Supermarket Merger

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