Question A:
Because of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, the U.S. unemployment rate was lower at the end of 2010 than it would have been without the stimulus bill.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question B:
Taking into account all of the ARRA’s economic consequences — including the economic costs of raising taxes to pay for the spending, its effects on future spending, and any other likely future effects — the benefits of the stimulus will end up exceeding its costs.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question A Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
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 Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Janet Currie |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Subsidizing employment leads employment to go up, other things equal. Adverse impacts through growth incentives might take time.
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 Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Claudia Goldin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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quit with the politics and just go read the official ARRA reports for a review of the evidence
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 Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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All reasonable models have this implication, but there's enough the models are missing...
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 Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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High confidence on an issue like this would be foolish.That being said, the depressing effect of future liabilities likely exceeded benefits
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 Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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There has been no serious study of this. Most analyses that try to analyze 2008-2011 are too simple and/or plagued with mathematical errors.
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 Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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But this is an incredibly low bar.
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 Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Caveat: how much was it offset by less agressive (than otherwise) unconventional monetary policy?
-see background information here |
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 Edward Lazear |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The estimates are varied and the highest are based on ex ante models, not experienced-based data. The upper bound estimate is low.
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 Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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See the various CBO studies on the subject.
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 Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Cecilia Rouse |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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With the caveat that there is no perfect experiment, the evidence suggests it boosted the economy.
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 Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
 José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Hyun Song Shin |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 James Stock |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Nancy Stokey |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Block grants to the states allowed them to cut education, health, and other services by less as state tax revenues fell.
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 Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Even clearer by 2011. Why ask about 2010 when much of the stimulus is slow acting? The stimulus project on my way to work just finishing.
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 Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Luigi Zingales |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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At the very minimum the transfer to the states prevented them from firing state employees. But I do not know how big the overall effect was
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Question B Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
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Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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This is in part an empirical question and I think it would be difficult to answer this with any certainty.
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Janet Currie |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I am working on this question now using my macro model. Any thoughts on what discount rate to use for increased future unemployment?
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Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Claudia Goldin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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This all depends on how much you value avoiding short-run collapse versus the costs long-term. But it’s not free.
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Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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U.S. was losing 700K jobs per month & K markets were not functioning. economy was in crisis & ARRA helped, along with K markt interventions
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Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I'd agree that the results are likely to be on the positive side, but I can think of future crashes caused by the accumulation of debt
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Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Feedback effects too complicated to calculate. My best guess is that the program was marginally beneficial, but monetary easing helped more.
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Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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same as above
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Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Same as response to previous question.
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Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Payoffs to special interests (& associated political costs that paralyzed other efforts) made it far less effective than it could have been
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Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Depends critically on how permanent and useful the stimulus to government spending.
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Edward Lazear |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The cost is the enormous and tough-to-reverse growth of government. This swamps even high estimates of benefits. See my op-eds. that explain
-see background information here |
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Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hard to know how the increased debt will be paid (Congress could make a mess of it), so some uncertainty here.
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Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Cecilia Rouse |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Not sure how to interpret "effects on future spending" but I'm persuaded the alternative (without the ARRA) would have put us on a bad path.
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Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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This will depend on future tax and spending policies.
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Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hyun Song Shin |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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James Stock |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Nancy Stokey |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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How can anyone imagine this question is answerable, given the current state of economic science?
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Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The part of the economy where we are still losing jobs is gov employment. Gov can create its own recession by being short sighted.
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Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Luigi Zingales |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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