Question A:
If the US replaced
its discretionary monetary policy regime with a gold standard,
defining a "dollar" as a specific number of ounces of gold, the
price-stability and employment outcomes would be better for the average
American.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question B:
There are many factors besides US inflation risk that influence the current dollar price of gold.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question A Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
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 Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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A gold standard would have avoided the policy mistakes of the 2000s, but still likely that discretionary policy is useful during recessions
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 Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Janet Currie |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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A time series plot of the price of consumption in ounces of gold, and then in US dollars, clarifies that gold is not a stable standard.
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 Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Claudia Goldin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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eesh. Has it come to this?
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 Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Modern interest-rate feedback rules (Taylor rules) do a vastly better job. The instability of the relative price of gold is way too high.
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 Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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All insights from the past and current crises go against a gold standard.
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 Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Since gold has supply and demand dynamics of its own, for reasons unrelated to its use as a store of value, Americans would exposed to risk.
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 Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The relative price of gold can be very volatile.
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 Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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A gold standard regime would be a disaster for any large advanced economy. Love of the G.S. implies macroeconomic illiteracy.
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 Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
 Edward Lazear |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The gold standard adds credibility when a country lacks discipline.The cost is monetary polic flexibility. The tradeoff is unclear in US.
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 William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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This proposal makes no sense in the modern world. Just look at the Eurozone to see the consequences.
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 Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Cecilia Rouse |
Princeton | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Hyun Song Shin |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 James Stock |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Nancy Stokey |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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There are much better ways to avoid excessive inflation, while maintaining the flexibility of a fiat currency.
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 Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Why tie to gold? why not 1982 Bordeaux?
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 Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Luigi Zingales |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Question B Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Gold is intrinsically close to useless, so its price is determined as a "bubble".
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Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Janet Currie |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Claudia Goldin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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new gold reserve discoveries and changes in the technology of extraction, to name two simple examples
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Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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So many that they would never fit in 140 characters...
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Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Gold is used as a safe haven in financial crisis. That has little to do with US inflation.
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Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Go see a dentist.
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Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Edward Lazear |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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This is a market like any other. The supply of gold and other sources of demand affect its price in real terms relative to other goods.
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William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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There is no discernible connection between gold price and CPI movements in the period since the demonetization of gold in 1971.
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Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Cecilia Rouse |
Princeton | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hyun Song Shin |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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James Stock |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Nancy Stokey |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Demand for gold seems to come from concern about the entire financial system. There are better ways to hedge inflation risk.
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Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Luigi Zingales |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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