Question A:
If the United States fails to make scheduled interest or principal payments on government debt securities, even as an unintended consequence of political brinksmanship, US families and businesses are likely to suffer severe economic harm.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question B:
With or without a default, current uncertainty over future taxing and spending policies of the US government is likely to depress private investment and hiring by enough to reduce GDP growth by at least a quarter of a percentage point over the next 12 months.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question A Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
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 Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Janet Currie |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Treasury markets are directly affected, raising US and other borrowing costs. Recipients of federal payments impaired, with a multiplier
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 Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hard to know consequences of something this unprecedented
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 Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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"Severe" is uncertain, but "harm" will be significant. Extent of financial disruptions are hard to predict. Length of default will matter.
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 Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Unlikely, if they pay a week later.
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 Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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This is unknown, of course, but there seems to be decent probabilities on bad stuff happening. It would be a self-inflicted wound.
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 Robert Hall |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Poor question. The federal govt could make its interest payments on current debt even if the debt ceiling were not raised.
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 Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Don't know the effect on the market's long-run trust in the US. It may tolerate a few defaults, but don't know how many. Default is risky.
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 Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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this would put our status as reserve currency in play; there would probably be forced selling. All bad.
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 Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
 Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Hyun Song Shin |
Princeton | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Nancy Stokey |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Financial turmoil and a higher interest rate on the huge debt will harm everyone.
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 Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Giving away the status of "risk free" to make a political point is the height of stupidity.
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 Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Question B Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Janet Currie |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I don't have a way to estimate the magnitude of the loss. It is significant, but could be on either side of the indicated amount.
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Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Stock market has not gone down, so it seems that people are not too worried yet.
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Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I'm confident that the uncertainty is not increasing GDP but the magnitude of the loss is very very difficult to estimate.
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Robert Hall |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Odd q! Paying for entitlement prgm liabilities over LT a big problem for econ grwth but ST effects of ST uncertainty not easily quantified.
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Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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magnitude is unsure but the direction is surely correct and my guess is that the magnitude is above 0.25.
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Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Close call about how much, but 1/4 point seems a reasonable central guess assuming debt limit resolved before D-day and shutdown < 2 weeks
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Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The sign is clear, but the magnitude is a much harder call.
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Hyun Song Shin |
Princeton | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Nancy Stokey |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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A comprehensive tax/entitlement reform, one that would fix US fiscal problems for the next forty years, would be a great "stimulus package."
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Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ain't got no tea leaves.
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Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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