Question A:
Even if tests for Covid-19 are being rationed, there is an urgent need for some random testing to establish baseline levels of the virus to inform any decisions about ending lockdowns.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question B:
Required elements for an economic ‘restart’ after lockdowns include a massive increase in testing capacity (for infections and antibodies) along with a coherent strategy for preventing new outbreaks and reintroducing low-risk/no-risk individuals into public activities.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question A Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
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 Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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There must be smarter ways to correct for the bias than pure random testing and not using limited resources to people who need it most.
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 Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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We need to make sure we can test symptomatic people.
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 Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Population testing is the point. We should, ideally, test everyone. Random is not really the point.
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 Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Testing could help us understand prevalence and mortality risk, both overall and by age and condition
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 Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Yes, important. But we need to get out of this shortage of tests first, of course.
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 Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Tricky subject. We need one survey of a few thousand people with repeated testing and clinical observation, to clear up a lot of mysteries.
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 Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Foremost we need anti-body testing to judge the path of the pandemic.
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 Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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This is common sense.
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 Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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seems to be one area where the economists and some epidemiologists disagree -- I think we are right....
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 Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
 Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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This is one of the most important holes in current policy. Absolutely critical. Some firms, hospitals can do while waiting for gov.
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 Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Lockdowns should be ended scientifically rather than blindly; to do so we must know the state of the population, which requires testing.
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 José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Not while asymptomatic health workers treating covid-19 patients cannot be tested.
-see background information here |
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 Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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This is mainly an epidemiology question. I expect testing should be for antibodies as well as the virus.
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 Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Antibody testing on a random sample of the population would also be very useful.
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 James Stock |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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See the link and my forthcoming VoxEU piece
-see background information here |
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 Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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How to define urgent. More important than testing workers? Make it important and I am all in.
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 Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The lack of reliable information on the distribution of the virus makes decision-making riskier.
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Question B Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Certifying people as recovered would be extremely helpful as Aaron Edlin and Bryce Nesbitt argue in STATnews, First Opinion
-see background information here |
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Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Do you want people to get out of their pajamas and back to work? Then we NEED TO DO MORE TESTS.
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Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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We need a coherent policy that adapts policy to test results.
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Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The Asian experience shows this is a viable, hopefully sustainable path. Aiming for herd-immunity always was a much riskier strategy.
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Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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See URL below for some uncommonly serious thinking about this issue.
-see background information here |
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Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Would also be very helpful to have treatments that can be administered when symptoms first appear that reduce the odds of becoming critical.
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Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The Garber-Romer op-ed in the NYT last week lays out the case for doing this quite well
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William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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This is not macro policy, this is good public health policy. Orders of magnitude smaller than stimulus needs.
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Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Restarting too early risks a viral resurgence; too late entails extra cost. Careful planning is required to strike the right balance.
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José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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There is clearly a need for testing, not just capacity, as well as a way for low/no risk individuals to credibly identify themselves.
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Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The devil is in the details
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James Stock |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The only caveat is if we already have a high infection rate (low death rate), then such measures should target the most at risk eg elderly.
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Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Here my gripe is with “required”. Important yes but would I hold up restart if cases are low but tests are still rationed? No.
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Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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"Required" may be too strong. A vaccine or treatment could substitute for testing. But most likely, a massive increase in testing needed.
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