Question A:
Because federal spending on Medicare and Medicaid will continue to grow under current policy beyond the 10-year window of most political budget debates, it is easy for a politician to devise a budget plan that would reduce federal deficits over the next decade without really making the U.S. fiscally sustainable.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question B:
Comparing two plans that would reduce federal budget deficits by identical amounts in each of the next 10 years, one that did so partly by reducing significantly the long-term growth rate of Medicare and Medicaid spending would do more to make the U.S. budget fiscally sustainable than one that did not lower the growth of these spending programs.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question A Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
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 Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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"Easy" is too strong, but the growth rate of medical costs and adverse demographic trends pose long term problems
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 Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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With or w/o Medicare, it's hard to do a budget that fixes federal deficits over 10 yrs. But ignoring Med makes it easier than it should be!
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 Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Janet Currie |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It might be easy for technocrats to devise a plan, but it seems very difficult to get politicians to do so.
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 David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Nothing is easy about deficit reduction.
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 Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Claudia Goldin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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you think a significant 10 yr deficit cut would be 'easy'? welcome to earth, friend.
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 Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Disagree w word "easy" but agree that the budget problem for the next 10 years differs from the one over longer terms.
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 Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Health spending spending will rise a lot in 10 years, so a plan that limited the deficit for that period of time would be a good step
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 Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
 Edward Lazear |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Easier, yes, but CBO says even eliminating deficits over ten years means noticeable spending cuts and/or tax increases.
-see background information here |
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 Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Controlling US health care costs is necessary (and not only for fiscal sustainability). But other fiscal issues also need addressing.
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 José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Hyun Song Shin |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Nancy Stokey |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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arithmetic
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 Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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"Easy" might not be the right word.
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 Luigi Zingales |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Question B Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Alternative could be as sound if it reduced growth rate of Social Security (e.g. by means testing) and reduced inefficient tax deductions.
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Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Rising health care costs are the greatest threat to U.S. fiscal solvency (that we know of) looking over multiple decades.
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Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Janet Currie |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Health care costs are driving the growth in the deficit.
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David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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An important caveat though: It can be difficult to know today, what will lower long term growth more than 10 years out.
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Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Claudia Goldin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Depends what the alternative is.
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Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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if it meant the lower growth rate would continue, then yes, clearly
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Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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True but more revenues need to be part of solution. We are collecting low levels of revenue by historical stds and population is aging.
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Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Rationalizing Medicare and bringing contributions for higher-income families into line with benefits would be a good idea on its own.
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Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Medicare and Medicaid are (along with growth) the key factors for long term sustainability. We never paid for the Bush plan, let alone ACA.
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Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Edward Lazear |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hard to disagree, but question seems too hypothetical - fiscal situation also would look better with 5%/ yr GDP growth!
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Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Hyun Song Shin |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Nancy Stokey |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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ditto. Real issue should be to abolish the 10 year window and especially misleading attempts to disguise things via "temporary" tax cuts.
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Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Luigi Zingales |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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