Question A:
Loans to students attending for-profit colleges are especially risky because students attending them have had default rates that greatly exceed those for comparable students attending public and non-profit private institutions.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question B:
Rules that tie each college's eligibility for federal student loans to its students' graduation rates and post-schooling employment outcomes would better protect taxpayers from losses on student loans.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question A Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
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 Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
 Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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See Deming, Goldin and Katz 2012 in Journal of Economic Perspectives
-see background information here |
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 Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
 Janet Currie |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Seems misphrased. Surely not "because"? Rather than both consequences of other factors
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 Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Claudia Goldin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Robert Hall |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Perhaps these students were high default risks no matter what schools they attended. Cannot infer causation from correlation.
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 Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
 Edward Lazear |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Agreeing with some caution: default rates are higher on average (see link), but don't know the evidence on whether students are comparable.
-see background information here |
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 Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Depends on whether the characteristics leading a student to default are observable and independent of attendance at a for-profit school.
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 William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Haven't seen numbers except in the press; don't understand the nature of "default" here.
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 Hyun Song Shin |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Nancy Stokey |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Presumes facts that I do not know to be true.
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 Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I don't know of work that has been able to compare default for "comparable students"; the pools attending are very different.
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 Luigi Zingales |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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If the fact is correct ( I do not know ) I agree
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Question B Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
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Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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A tie to default rates would also help.
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Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The government is now residual claimant for the school's activities. There may be alternative ways to do this.
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Janet Currie |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Sounds reasonable that loans should not be provided if they are not having a sufficiently good measured impact.
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Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Note though that high graduation rates may be manipulable.
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Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Outcomes need to be measured. But graduation rates can be manipulated. Employment outcomes are a better criterion.
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Claudia Goldin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The policies should not be at the college/univ level but should be at the PROGRAM level. Better than nothing, though.
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Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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if done right.
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Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Robert Hall |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Conclusion is obvious, but does not support the policy. The proper goal is to improve students' lives on average, not avoid loan losses.
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Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Depends on not forbearing, or picking up costs of past bad private loans. Will the government really put lots of people in debtors prison?
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Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Edward Lazear |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Sounds plausible, but don't know have enough expertise on current program to feel very confident about it.
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Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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May just drive students who were likely to default anyway to different colleges
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William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Much could depend on the nature of the "tie." If this were done well it could also affect competition for students in a positive way.
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Hyun Song Shin |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Nancy Stokey |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hard to know without more details. The no brainer is to require better disclosure. You should have asked about that.
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Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Better incentives for colleges seem appropriate here.
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Luigi Zingales |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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