Question A:
Assuming that additional federal spending were to be structured as in the CARES Act, a substantial further spending program now will ultimately be less costly than a smaller program because it will better help to avoid long-term economic damage and promote a stronger recovery.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question B:
Having a fiscal rule that increases social spending on programs like unemployment insurance and SNAP based on the conditions of the economy would be an improvement on the discretionary way in which these programs are currently operated.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question A Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Seems like small businesses, which are in greatest need, haven't received much support, only large firms have. More of the same isn't good.
|
||||
 Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
At this point, the money would be better spent supporting state budgets. Also, CARES needs some tweaking!
|
||||
 Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
The CARES Act programs are not well designed. Despite that, going bigger and earlier is better for the reasons stated in the question.
|
||||
 Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Preserving powder for second wave may make sense. Aiding states now could be smart.
|
||||
 Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Uninteresting to think about a further program structured like CARES when the next program could instead be structured better.
|
||||
 Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
There is concern that the extra $600 per week in UI benefits distorts decisions about returning to work.
|
||||
 Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
I would prefer a program that targeted less wealthy individuals and (maybe) small businesses rather than big companies.
|
||||
 Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
True IF it is sensibly constructed. We need to reduce uncertainty. It should be focused on immediate crisis.
|
||||
 Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
depends on the path of the disease, too many unknowns
|
||||
 Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
 Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
A small program seems unlikely to match up to the economic losses, which are enormous.
|
||||
 Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Need more state and local government support than I'm CARES Act.
|
||||
 Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Aid now will keep economic institutions and productive capacity intact, quickening subsequent recovery that will otherwise be more difficult
|
||||
 José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
"Substantial" is in the eye of the beholder, of course.
|
||||
 Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
CARES Act was very poorly targeted towards avoiding long-term economic damage and promoting a stronger recovery.
|
||||
 James Stock |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
I am worried about how these programs are being administered.
|
||||
 Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
Question B Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
But important to make sure that democratic participation in policymaking isn't completely sidelined.
|
||||
|
Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
While I favor more reliance on rules, the two approaches are not mutually exclusive. Extreme events like Covid require a tailored response.
|
||||
|
Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Automatic stabilizers work immediately and are not subject to dead-of-night lobbyist insertions and last-minute legislative bungles
|
||||
|
Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
I'm not sufficiently knowledgeable on this issue.
|
||||
|
Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
No doubt smart rules could in principle be better than congressional discretion but who would create and enforce the rule? Congress.
|
||||
|
Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Have you turned on C-SPAN lately?
|
||||
|
Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
UI benefits are effectively indexed to conditions. Plus other need-based programs plus discretionary progs to smooth disposable inc well.
|
||||
|
Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
The problem with such a rule is that the response is insensitive to the specific shock: a pandemic differs from a standard depression.
|
||||
|
Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Some automaticity would impose helpful discipline but it is impossible to foresee all circumstances so some discretion is needed.
|
||||
|
Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
The safety net should be reliable, particularly when needed the most.
|
||||
|
Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
figuring out the level of benefits that would be appropriate would be much harder, but turning things on could be done mechanically.
|
||||
|
Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Discretionary policy responses are counterproductively sluggish and too often politically manipulated.
|
||||
|
José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Should be "increases or decreases." How would be changed to become more responsive would matter.
|
||||
|
Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
James Stock |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Congress hates to make stuff like this automatic because it means they lose the power to be heroes.
|
||||
|
Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
