Question A:
Holding labor market institutions and job training fixed, rising use of robots and artificial intelligence is likely to increase substantially the number of workers in advanced countries who are unemployed for long periods.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question B:
Rising use of robots and artificial intelligence in advanced countries is likely to create benefits large enough that they could be used to compensate those workers who are substantially negatively affected for their lost wages.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question A Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
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 Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Recent research finds negative employment effects from industrial robots. Effects of AI and more mature robotics tech could be different.
-see background information here |
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 Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It's not impossible, but I'm not so far seeing the evidence that "that this time is different."
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 Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Not because it must, but because the policies needed to prevent it will not be forthcoming,.
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 Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Lots of jobs will be left requiring compassion, communication and intuition.
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 Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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key is the length of adjustment, recent research, including Acemoglu and Restrepo, suggest meaningful periods of time.
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 Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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So far, the effects seem to be small-the labor force has shrunk only a bit. But the future could see much more shrinkage.
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 Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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There will be jobs in health and care service.Workers will need training. Unemployment may rise initially, but maybe not long-term.
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 Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Unemployment insurance benefits will be used to facilitate longer job search spells in the job market with fewer opportunities.
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 Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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they will destroy a lot of jobs and will create many too. hard to know if the net, long-term effect will be substantial
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 Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
 Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Yes, with significant uncertainty. How quickly jobs will be lost and new jobs will be created is hard to forecast.
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 Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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For at least the next 20 years. After that, depends on evolution of AI etc.
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 Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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But with appropriate institutions and retraining, the effect on unemployment could be significantly mitigated.
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 José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Historical evidence suggests that this increase will be relatively short-run.
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 Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Holding fixed institutions, wages and labor force participation will fall for some workers, but unemployment will not increase
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 Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I don't understand the premise. We create tools but no one learns how to use them?
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 Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Question B Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
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Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Negative wage effects on at least some workers and productivity improvements are likely. Politics is the real constraint on redistribution
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Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Panelist meant to strongly agree (question misread). Though these techs will almost surely ↑ GDP, losers almost surely won’t be compensated.
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Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Having a job matters even if it does not change earnings. I wonder what mechanisms will keep the population engaged and emotionally rewarded
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Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Not that they will. "Could be"
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Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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"could"-- yes but is a favorite academic ? of unclear real world relevance- benefits from big dislocations are not usually redistributed
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Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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There are already some bad signs about the shrinking labor force. Those not in the LF are unhappy and inclined to opiods.
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Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The pie is bigger and so monetary compensation is possible. But people may lose self-esteem if they no longer have a"good" job.
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Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The key word is "could". It is unclear how effective the political institutions will be in making this happen. I am pessimistic.
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Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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But i am skeptical this will be pursued much in the US, witness the program on trade adjustment assistance
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Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The potential benefits are large. Will they be used to compensate for job loss? May be determined more by politics than economics.
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Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Slightly weird question. Impacts are + and -, with net being positive. Hard to know where gross job losses fit into the + and -, however.
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Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It is (alas) by no means clear that we can muster the political will to make the appropriate compensations.
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José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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But, of course, it is not likely that those benefits will in fact be used to compensate the losers.
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Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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But the caveat is that compensating these workers will further reduce their employment
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Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The key word is "could". In the recent years the gains from tech have not trickled down much in terms of money.
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Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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...but three compensation is very unlikely to be paid for most of those who lose their jobs.
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