Question A:
Holding labor market institutions and job training fixed, rising use of robots and artificial intelligence is likely to increase substantially the number of workers in advanced countries who are unemployed for long periods.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question B:
Rising use of robots and artificial intelligence in advanced countries is likely to create benefits large enough that they could be used to compensate those workers who are substantially negatively affected for their lost wages.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question A Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
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 Philippe Aghion |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Pol Antras |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Historical evidence doesn't make me too pessimistic but some adjustment to labor market policies might be necessary to avoid transition cost
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 Richard Baldwin |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Timothy J. Besley |
LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Nicholas Bloom |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Agnès Bénassy-Quéré |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Some advanced countries have adequate institutions to facilitate the transition and a demography foreboding a shortage of workers.
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 Paul De Grauwe |
LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The problem may be that wages are low or that work is unsatisfactory, but not long term unemployment. Labor force participation may decline.
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 Ernst Fehr |
Universität Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Xavier Freixas |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Must be true in the short run, unless it takes place in the context of expanding aggregate demand, which would facilitate reabsoption
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 Luis Garicano |
LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Francesco Giavazzi |
Bocconi | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Bio/Vote History | ||
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robots may be accompanied by other innovations that can abosorb the workers laid off, but exent of this is uncertain
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 Martin Hellwig |
Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods | Bio/Vote History | ||
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the answer depends a lot on what alternative employment (at possibly lower wages) is available.
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 Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Speed of innovation quite unclear; suppressing labour market and training response loads the question in direction of unemployment.
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 Henrik Kleven |
Princeton | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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We will see lots of changes, not only robots coming in. But also very different ways of working, leading also to shorter employment spells.
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 Per Krusell |
Stockholm University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Perhaps unemployment could rise in the short run but employment will respond to labor supply: there will be jobs.
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 Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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History&prior evidence disagree. Some job polarization&lots of complementarity. Could AI&robots be different? Yes, but so far very uncertain
-see background information here -see background information here |
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 Costas Meghir |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The outcome will depend on the institutional structure. More flexible labor markets will allow a faster adjustment
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 Peter Neary |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Some workers will be displaced, some will retrain, the new technology is likely to diffuse slowly, especially in service industries.
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 Kevin O'Rourke |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Job training needs to change
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 Torsten Persson |
Stockholm University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Christopher Pissarides |
London School of Economics and Political Science | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jobs will be destroyed in some sectors but created in other sectors. Sectoral shifts are common without large unemployment hikes
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 Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Unemployment depends on macro policies.
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 Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Hélène Rey |
London Business School | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 John Van Reenen |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hard to predict impact of technology on jobs with our current levels of knowledge. Innovation often has positive as well as negative effects
-see background information here |
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 John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Beatrice Weder di Mauro |
The Graduate Institute, Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Karl Whelan |
University College Dublin | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Fabrizio Zilibotti |
Yale University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Question B Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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Philippe Aghion |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Pol Antras |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It seems pretty clear that the potential gains would outweigh the losses.
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Richard Baldwin |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Timothy J. Besley |
LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Nicholas Bloom |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Agnès Bénassy-Quéré |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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In theory yes. However the workers want jobs, not transfers. Very difficult during the transition.
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Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Compensating the losers will require fiscal adaptations in order to improve the scope for redistribution
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Paul De Grauwe |
LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It all depends how the ownership of the AI technology is distributed. AI by itself may be very effective at concentrating ownership.
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Ernst Fehr |
Universität Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Xavier Freixas |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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True in theory. In practice, it will depend on the transfers system in place and other elements determined by the political process
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Luis Garicano |
LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Francesco Giavazzi |
Bocconi | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Martin Hellwig |
Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The answer depends on how the various frictions in the labour market play out. No general answer is available.
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Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Henrik Kleven |
Princeton | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Absolutely. But mind the term "could". Whether or not it happens depends critically on fundamental adjustments of our societal architecture.
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Per Krusell |
Stockholm University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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If it is profitable to employ robots it is very likely more efficient. So almost by definition they increase production efficiency.
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Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The key point is whether there is political will to redistribute these benefits
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Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Assuming firms generally make tech investments when NPV positive, gains should be large enough. But not clear that the transfers take place.
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Costas Meghir |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Again - depends on the institutional structure
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Peter Neary |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I agree in principle, though compensation rarely occurs in practice and would require Nordic levels of income support and retraining.
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Kevin O'Rourke |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Kaldor-Hicks: seriously?
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Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Higher productivity means a bigger pie
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Torsten Persson |
Stockholm University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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That compensation is possible in principle does not mean that it is likely to take place in practice.
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Christopher Pissarides |
London School of Economics and Political Science | Bio/Vote History | ||
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There will be substantial productivity gains but government needs to take action to destribute them across negatively affetced groups
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Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The question is not whether they could be compensated, but whether they will. Experience suggests not.
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Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hélène Rey |
London Business School | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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John Van Reenen |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Technology expands the economic pie, so definitely offers chances to share greater wealth
-see background information here |
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John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Beatrice Weder di Mauro |
The Graduate Institute, Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Karl Whelan |
University College Dublin | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Fabrizio Zilibotti |
Yale University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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