Question A:
Capping the number of ride-sharing drivers as is being discussed in New York City, Chicago and London will make the average resident in that city worse off.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question B:
To achieve a given level of congestion, it would be better to use taxes for driving that vary based on the level of congestion, rather than limiting the number of ride-sharing vehicles.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question A Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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But I remain worried about the merging monopoly power and potential control of companies like Uber. Regulation is key.
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 Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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At present, congestion externalities are not correctly priced in. A blunt 'cap' policy could make things better or worse-but probably worse
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 Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Congestion externalities important but a ride-sharing-specific policy disproportionately penalizes one group of congestion contributors.
-see background information here |
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 David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Reducing all driving would help. But maybe uncapped ride-share cars displace enough less efficient driving to create a net social benefit?
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 Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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More supply is normally good for the average ride-share user/resident, but there is also a negative congestion externality.
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 Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Depends on degree of congestion in each city
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 Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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uncertain bc of externalities like congestion, accidents, pollution, etc.
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 Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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See Peter Cramton's website [Disclosure: a son of mine is chief economist of Uber]
-see background information here |
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 Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Taxi drivers may gain, but standard theory suggests that the losses will outweigh the gains. Lower congestion could possibly overturn this.
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 Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Congestion is a serious problem in the center of these cities. Caps would help alleviate congestion.
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 Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
 Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 William Nordhaus |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Market caps often cause sufficient distortions as to be detrimental, but in this case may also have beneficial implications for congestion.
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 José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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cap affecting only relatively most efficient individual transpotation unlikely to benefit on average
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 Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Less convenience for some and less congestion generally. Net impact will vary.
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 Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 James Stock |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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As usual winners and losers but this is a blunt instrument.
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 Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Question B Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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1. Taxes are typically better than limiting the number of cars. 2. Making taxes depend on the level of congestion is key.
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Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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See prior comment
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Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Individuals do not fully internalize the congestion cost to others of their own driving. That's a clear argument for a congestion tax.
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Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ordinary cars congest as much as ride-hailing cars.
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Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Pricing based on congestion is far better than a cap which reduces cars at all times, even when congestion is low.
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Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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William Nordhaus |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Taxes are a much more flexible and subtle instrument than caps.
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José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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A true congestion tax affecting all driving would also generate needed funds for public transportation.
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Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Obvious, politically difficult.
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Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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James Stock |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Congestion taxes are clearly better and help the folks away from the center city who need the ride sharing most.
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Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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