Wednesday, July 12th, 2017 12:16 pm

Refugees in Germany

The influx of refugees into Germany beginning in the summer of 2015 will generate net economic benefits for German citizens over the succeeding decade.

Responses
 

Source: European IGM Economic Experts Panel
www.igmchicago.org/european-economic-experts-panel

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Source: European IGM Economic Experts Panel
www.igmchicago.org/european-economic-experts-panel
Participant University Vote Confidence Comment Bio/Vote History
Aghion Philippe Aghion Harvard Did Not Answer
Bio/Vote History
         
Allen Franklin Allen Imperial College London Agree 6
I am not very well informed on the skill sets of the refugees that have been allowed to stay. In general I think immigration is beneficial.
Bio/Vote History
         
Antras Pol Antras Harvard Agree 8
The effect on aggregate income (even aggregate income per capita) will likely be positive; but distributive effects might lead to discontent
Bio/Vote History
         
Baldwin Richard Baldwin The Graduate Institute Geneva Did Not Answer
Bio/Vote History
         
Besley Timothy J. Besley LSE Did Not Answer
Bio/Vote History
         
Blanchard Olivier Blanchard Peterson Institute Uncertain 6
it very much depends on the degree to which the refugees eventually become integrated and productive. Not clear at this point.
Bio/Vote History
         
Bloom Nicholas Bloom Stanford Uncertain 4
This was an incredible humanitarian move but the economics are unclear. They are accepting mainly unskilled and often traumatized people.
Bio/Vote History
         
Blundell Richard William Blundell University College London Agree 7
This is a fairly skilled and young group, precisely the right mixture of human capital. Of course, there are some losers and usual frictions
Bio/Vote History
         
Bénassy-Quéré Agnès Bénassy-Quéré Paris School of Economics Uncertain 3
I think it will take more than a decade for the net economic benefits to appear.
Bio/Vote History
         
Carletti Elena Carletti Bocconi Agree 5
Bio/Vote History
         
Danthine Jean-Pierre Danthine Paris School of Economics Did Not Answer
Bio/Vote History
         
De Grauwe Paul De Grauwe LSE Agree 7
Bio/Vote History
         
Eeckhout Jan Eeckhout University College London Agree 7
Bio/Vote History
         
Fehr Ernst Fehr Universität Zurich Did Not Answer
Bio/Vote History
         
Freixas Xavier Freixas Universitat Pompeu Fabra Uncertain 5
Bio/Vote History
         
Fuchs-Schündeln Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln Goethe-Universität Frankfurt Uncertain 4
Bio/Vote History
         
Galí Jordi Galí Universitat Pompeu Fabra Uncertain 8
Bio/Vote History
         
Garicano Luis Garicano LSE Did Not Answer
Bio/Vote History
         
Giavazzi Francesco Giavazzi Bocconi Agree 5
Bio/Vote History
         
Griffith Rachel Griffith University of Manchester Disagree 4
Bio/Vote History
         
Guerrieri Veronica Guerrieri Chicago Booth Agree 8
Bio/Vote History
         
Guiso Luigi Guiso Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance Uncertain 5
I have no theoretcial guidance to anser the question
Bio/Vote History
         
Hellwig Martin Hellwig Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods No Opinion
The outcome is highly contingent on the extent of labor market opening and on integration. No general assessment can be seriously made.
Bio/Vote History
         
Honohan Patrick Honohan Trinity College Dublin Agree 6
Aging Europe must find ways of coping with immigration; though the 2015 surge may have unleashed political forces with bad economic impact.
Bio/Vote History
         
Kleven Henrik Kleven Princeton Did Not Answer
Bio/Vote History
         
Krahnen Jan Pieter Krahnen Goethe University Frankfurt Uncertain 9
Direct effects likely negative, while indirect effects -ranging from fiscal stimuli to change in immigration policy- likely positive. Sum=?
Bio/Vote History
         
Krusell Per Krusell Stockholm University Disagree 5
The adjustment likely takes longer (even though German labor markets allow low entry wages). Eventually the average benefits will be > 0.
Bio/Vote History
         
Kőszegi Botond Kőszegi Central European University Uncertain 9
Bio/Vote History
         
La Ferrara Eliana La Ferrara Bocconi Uncertain 6
Depends on extent refugees' integration in labor market. If successful, benefits for pension system could outweigh social welfare costs.
Bio/Vote History
         
Leuz Christian Leuz Chicago Booth Agree 2
Agree for migrants,esp w/ low birth rate as DE. Less clear w/ large ref influx. Key is quick right to work&access to education. DE too rigid
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Bio/Vote History
         
Meghir Costas Meghir Yale Did Not Answer
Bio/Vote History
         
Neary Peter Neary Oxford Strongly Agree 7
Net benefits from increased labor supply. Losses to some workers possible. Poor integration could lead to social unrest: safety nets needed
Bio/Vote History
         
O'Rourke Kevin O'Rourke Oxford Uncertain 8
It will depend on their composition, how well they are integrated into labour markets, and other factors. Plus: which German citizens?
Bio/Vote History
         
Pagano Marco Pagano Università di Napoli Federico II Uncertain 1
Bio/Vote History
         
Pastor Lubos Pastor Chicago Booth Uncertain 3
The economy will get bigger but maybe not per capita and there will be redistribution.
Bio/Vote History
         
Persson Torsten Persson Stockholm University Did Not Answer
Bio/Vote History
         
Pissarides Christopher Pissarides LSE Uncertain 8
refugees are primarily young, which is good, but unqualified in things needed by German industry, which could offset benefits
Bio/Vote History
         
Portes Richard Portes London Business School Strongly Agree 9
Depends partly on integration policies. But evidence clear: immigrants bring dynamism, improve demography, net fiscal contributors.
Bio/Vote History
         
Prendergast Canice Prendergast Chicago Booth Agree 6
Bio/Vote History
         
Reichlin Lucrezia Reichlin London Business School Agree 5
Bio/Vote History
         
Repullo Rafael Repullo CEMFI Agree 5
Bio/Vote History
         
Rey Hélène Rey London Business School Did Not Answer
Bio/Vote History
         
Schoar Antoinette Schoar MIT Uncertain 7
The benefits of the immigration will depend on how well German society can provide education opportunities and integrate the refugees.
Bio/Vote History
         
Van Reenen John Van Reenen MIT Uncertain 1
Bio/Vote History
         
Vickers John Vickers Oxford Uncertain 3
Bio/Vote History
         
Voth Hans-Joachim Voth University of Zurich Strongly Disagree 8
Bio/Vote History
         
Weder di Mauro Beatrice Weder di Mauro Gutenberg University Mainz and INSEAD Uncertain 9
Most refugees lack the skills to be quickly integrated into the German labor market. EducatIon and integration policies will be key
Bio/Vote History
         
Whelan Karl Whelan University College Dublin Agree 7
Germany has very poor demographics and its population is set to contract. Taking in immigrants will have many long-term economic benefits.
Bio/Vote History
         
Wyplosz Charles Wyplosz The Graduate Institute Geneva Strongly Agree 8
This is a big plus given a sharply negative natural demography, but... Absorbing this population will be long and costly.
Bio/Vote History
         
Zilibotti Fabrizio Zilibotti Universität Zurich Uncertain 5
Bio/Vote History
         

About the European IGM Economic Experts Panel

This panel explores the views of European economists on vital public policy issues. It does this by polling them on important policy questions, by including a way for them to explain their answers briefly if they wish, and by disseminating these responses directly to the public in a simple format.

To that end, our panel was chosen to include distinguished experts with a keen interest in public policy from the main areas of economics, to be geographically diverse, and to include older and younger scholars. As with the IGM’s US panel, the experts are all outstanding researchers in their fields. The panel includes recipients of top national and international prizes in economics, fellows of the Econometric society and the European Economic Association, members of distinguished national and international policymaking bodies in Europe, recipients of significant grants for economic research, highly accomplished affiliates and program directors of the Centre for Economic Policy Research and the National Bureau of Economic Research, and past and current editors of leading academic journals in the profession. This approach not only provides a set of panelists whose names will be familiar to other economists and the media, but also delivers a group with impeccable qualifications to speak on public policy matters in Europe and beyond.

Questions for the European IGM Economic Experts Panel are emailed individually to all members of the panel. They are phrased as statements with which one can agree or disagree. The experts are also asked how confident they are in their knowledge of the issue associated with the question (10 being highest). Each panelist responds electronically at his or her convenience. Panelists may consult whatever resources they like before answering. They may also include brief comments with their responses, or provide links to relevant sources.

It is important to explain one aspect of our voting process. In some instances a panelist may neither agree nor disagree with a statement, and there can be two very different reasons for this. One case occurs when an economist knows a lot about a topic and yet sees the evidence on the exact claim at hand as ambiguous. In such cases our panelists vote "uncertain". A second case relates to statements on topics so far removed from the economist's knowledge that he or she does not feel well placed to judge. In this case, our panelists vote "no opinion".

Panelists suggest many of the questions themselves. Members of the public are also welcome to suggest questions (see link below). Although IGM faculty members are responsible for deciding the final version of each question, we send a draft of the question to the panel in advance and invite them to point out problems with the wording if they see any. This process helps us to reduce vagueness or problems of interpretation.

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