Question A:
A comprehensive policy response to the coronavirus will involve tolerating a very large contraction in economic activity until the spread of infections has dropped significantly.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question B:
Abandoning severe lockdowns at a time when the likelihood of a resurgence in infections remains high will lead to greater total economic damage than sustaining the lockdowns to eliminate the resurgence risk.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question C:
Optimally, the government would invest more than it is currently doing in expanding treatment capacity through steps such as building temporary hospitals, accelerating testing, making more masks and ventilators, and providing financial incentives for the production of a successful vaccine.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question A Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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But containment doesn't mean complete elimination. May be optimal to stagger return to work for low-risk groups once peak-disease is gone
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 Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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fiscal policy will be needed to support the weakest during the recession
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 Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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We don't quite know how bad it will be, or exactly what "very large" means. But spirit is right.
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 Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The reduction in business activity is necessary in order to prioritize human life.
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 Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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We need a lock down and random testing until we know either A. that the virus is under control or B. that mortality is low
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 Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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We need to know the true infection and asymptomatic rates before deciding on local lockdowns.
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 Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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quibble is that the contraction isn't only due to policy but also to changes in behavior that people are doing anyway
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 Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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As of today, that seems right. Had we been as well governed as Singapore, maybe not so expensive.
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 Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Economic activity already down and will hardly pick up until pandemic under control and fear abates.
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 Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Yes, there will be a "very large" contraction, but with a short duration, hopefully just several weeks.
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 Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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slowing the disease spread requires social distancing and less labor supply -- we don't want to fully offset this.
-see background information here |
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 Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
 Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hopefully only for a short time until our healthcare system is better equipped
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 Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Vague wording so hard to answer. Key to answer is the linkage, which is poorly understood.
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 Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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We have already seen one of the quickest and most severe contractions in history, with no immediate end in sight.
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 José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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However it is crucial to preserve capacity of firms of all sizes to return rapidly once social distancing is no longer necessary.
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 Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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There are other reasons to stop tolerating the contraction, e.g. effective treatments, evidence that mortality rates are not too high, etc
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 James Stock |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Spread of infections must drop to point health system can handle; will be contraction; but not clear suppression is desirable goal.
-see background information here |
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 Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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But there are many steps we can take that both will reduce the contraction and reduce lives lost. Most obviously vastly improved testing.
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Question B Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Again this applies to pick-disease.
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Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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We could overdo this lockdown! (But we could under-do it as well)
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Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The epidemiology studies imply severe economic damage in the form of additional loss of human life (to which I assign high economic damage.)
-see background information here |
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Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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This is obvious to everyone except Trump. Possibly to Trump as well.
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Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Again, it depends on what the true infection rate is (by locality). If everyone is already infected, lockdowns will not make a difference.
-see background information here |
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Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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taking available epi models at face value suggests there are large welfare/economic benefits to social distancing/slowing spread of COVID-19
-see background information here |
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Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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If lockdowns were a good idea, keeping them is probably also a good idea.
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Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Crazy to give up fight now when worst still ahead.
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Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I would say "could lead" instead of "will lead". One should never say "will". The focus has to be on rational risk assessments.
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Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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i am not an epidemiologist, but everything i read suggests that premature cessation will backfire -- see Andy Atkeson's analysis
-see background information here |
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Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Unless loosening up is sufficiently informed by testing.
-see background information here |
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Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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This is primarily a epidemiological question.
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Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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W/o vaccine, likelihood recurrence is high till very high % infected. Optimal strategy involves multiple waves of contact reduction.
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Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Same caveat: if mortality rate proves to be low or effective treatments are developed, this is false
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James Stock |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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We have insufficient data to assess and need random testing of population to ascertain true infection and death rates
-see background information here -see background information here -see background information here |
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Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The key is to reduce the likelihood of resurgence by better targeting of preventative measures. Until then, strict social distancing needed
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Question C Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Absolutely. US federal response has been incoherent & counterproductive. Hard to understand lack of investment ahead of current situation.
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Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The fiscal response is awesome (assuming that the $2T bill passes), but the federal health response has been abysmal
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Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Clearly, the government should have done this already.
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David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Lift the suppression cap implied by medical resources, to speed recovery. (See Eichenbaum et al.)
-see background information here |
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Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Obvious. But compare the spending in the stimulus package on these necessities vs. stimulus that spreads virus.
-see background information here |
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Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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ROI on these activities seems very high
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Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The failure of executive leadership in government, especially the White House, is tragic.
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Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Absolutely! Hard to imagine overspending on vaccine development, given likely spillovers to future work. URL below looks at other issues.
-see background information here |
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Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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sad that we are so far behind on some of this basic blocking and tackling. see team stanford for an interesting take
-see background information here |
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Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Given the potential length and depth of downturn, it is hard to imagine overinvesting in pandemic-related investment.
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Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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A timely response could have less vigorous and less expensive, but we must now intervene all the more to compensate for wasted time.
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José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Though hard to measure current investment rates, government greatly underinvested when a serious epidemic became apparent in China.
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Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Some state governments are flat out others asleep; the federal government should do more now and should prepare for the NEXT pandemic.
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Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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James Stock |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Massive incompetence in delayed testing and supplies acquisition. Thankfully some governors are stepping up.
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Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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