US

Policy for the COVID-19 Crisis

Question A:

A comprehensive policy response to the coronavirus will involve tolerating a very large contraction in economic activity until the spread of infections has dropped significantly.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question B:

Abandoning severe lockdowns at a time when the likelihood of a resurgence in infections remains high will lead to greater total economic damage than sustaining the lockdowns to eliminate the resurgence risk.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question C:

Optimally, the government would invest more than it is currently doing in expanding treatment capacity through steps such as building temporary hospitals, accelerating testing, making more masks and ventilators, and providing financial incentives for the production of a successful vaccine.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question A Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
But containment doesn't mean complete elimination. May be optimal to stagger return to work for low-risk groups once peak-disease is gone
Alesina
Alberto Alesina
Harvard
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
fiscal policy will be needed to support the weakest during the recession
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Baicker
Katherine Baicker
University of Chicago
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Banerjee
Abhijit Banerjee
MIT Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Brunnermeier
Markus Brunnermeier
Princeton
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Chetty
Raj Chetty
Harvard
Strongly Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Deaton
Angus Deaton
Princeton
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
We don't quite know how bad it will be, or exactly what "very large" means. But spirit is right.
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Strongly Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
The reduction in business activity is necessary in order to prioritize human life.
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
We need a lock down and random testing until we know either A. that the virus is under control or B. that mortality is low
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Einav
Liran Einav
Stanford
Agree
1
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Finkelstein
Amy Finkelstein
MIT Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Goldberg
Pinelopi Goldberg
Yale
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
We need to know the true infection and asymptomatic rates before deciding on local lockdowns.
Goolsbee
Austan Goolsbee
Chicago
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
quibble is that the contraction isn't only due to policy but also to changes in behavior that people are doing anyway
Hall
Robert Hall
Stanford
Uncertain
2
Bio/Vote History
As of today, that seems right. Had we been as well governed as Singapore, maybe not so expensive.
Hart
Oliver Hart
Harvard
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT
Strongly Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Economic activity already down and will hardly pick up until pandemic under control and fear abates.
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Hoynes
Hilary Hoynes
Berkeley
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Yes, there will be a "very large" contraction, but with a short duration, hopefully just several weeks.
Kaplan
Steven Kaplan
Chicago Booth
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
slowing the disease spread requires social distancing and less labor supply -- we don't want to fully offset this.
-see background information here
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Strongly Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford
Agree
2
Bio/Vote History
Hopefully only for a short time until our healthcare system is better equipped
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Vague wording so hard to answer. Key to answer is the linkage, which is poorly understood.
Obstfeld
Maurice Obstfeld
Berkeley
Strongly Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Saez
Emmanuel Saez
Berkeley
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Samuelson
Larry Samuelson
Yale
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
We have already seen one of the quickest and most severe contractions in history, with no immediate end in sight.
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
However it is crucial to preserve capacity of firms of all sizes to return rapidly once social distancing is no longer necessary.
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Shapiro
Carl Shapiro
Berkeley
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Shimer
Robert Shimer
University of Chicago
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
There are other reasons to stop tolerating the contraction, e.g. effective treatments, evidence that mortality rates are not too high, etc
Stock
James Stock
Harvard
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Spread of infections must drop to point health system can handle; will be contraction; but not clear suppression is desirable goal.
-see background information here
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
But there are many steps we can take that both will reduce the contraction and reduce lives lost. Most obviously vastly improved testing.

Question B Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Again this applies to pick-disease.
Alesina
Alberto Alesina
Harvard
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
We could overdo this lockdown! (But we could under-do it as well)
Baicker
Katherine Baicker
University of Chicago
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Banerjee
Abhijit Banerjee
MIT Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Brunnermeier
Markus Brunnermeier
Princeton
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Chetty
Raj Chetty
Harvard
Strongly Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Strongly Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Deaton
Angus Deaton
Princeton
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Strongly Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
The epidemiology studies imply severe economic damage in the form of additional loss of human life (to which I assign high economic damage.)
-see background information here
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
This is obvious to everyone except Trump. Possibly to Trump as well.
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Einav
Liran Einav
Stanford
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
Agree
1
Bio/Vote History
Finkelstein
Amy Finkelstein
MIT Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Goldberg
Pinelopi Goldberg
Yale
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Again, it depends on what the true infection rate is (by locality). If everyone is already infected, lockdowns will not make a difference.
-see background information here
Goolsbee
Austan Goolsbee
Chicago
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
taking available epi models at face value suggests there are large welfare/economic benefits to social distancing/slowing spread of COVID-19
-see background information here
Hall
Robert Hall
Stanford
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
If lockdowns were a good idea, keeping them is probably also a good idea.
Hart
Oliver Hart
Harvard
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Crazy to give up fight now when worst still ahead.
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Hoynes
Hilary Hoynes
Berkeley
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
I would say "could lead" instead of "will lead". One should never say "will". The focus has to be on rational risk assessments.
Kaplan
Steven Kaplan
Chicago Booth
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
i am not an epidemiologist, but everything i read suggests that premature cessation will backfire -- see Andy Atkeson's analysis
-see background information here
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Unless loosening up is sufficiently informed by testing.
-see background information here
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
This is primarily a epidemiological question.
Obstfeld
Maurice Obstfeld
Berkeley
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Saez
Emmanuel Saez
Berkeley
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Samuelson
Larry Samuelson
Yale
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
W/o vaccine, likelihood recurrence is high till very high % infected. Optimal strategy involves multiple waves of contact reduction.
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Shapiro
Carl Shapiro
Berkeley
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Shimer
Robert Shimer
University of Chicago
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Same caveat: if mortality rate proves to be low or effective treatments are developed, this is false
Stock
James Stock
Harvard
Uncertain
9
Bio/Vote History
We have insufficient data to assess and need random testing of population to ascertain true infection and death rates
-see background information here
-see background information here
-see background information here
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
The key is to reduce the likelihood of resurgence by better targeting of preventative measures. Until then, strict social distancing needed

Question C Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Strongly Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Absolutely. US federal response has been incoherent & counterproductive. Hard to understand lack of investment ahead of current situation.
Alesina
Alberto Alesina
Harvard
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
The fiscal response is awesome (assuming that the $2T bill passes), but the federal health response has been abysmal
Baicker
Katherine Baicker
University of Chicago
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Banerjee
Abhijit Banerjee
MIT Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Brunnermeier
Markus Brunnermeier
Princeton
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Chetty
Raj Chetty
Harvard
Strongly Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Clearly, the government should have done this already.
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Deaton
Angus Deaton
Princeton
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Strongly Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Lift the suppression cap implied by medical resources, to speed recovery. (See Eichenbaum et al.)
-see background information here
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Obvious. But compare the spending in the stimulus package on these necessities vs. stimulus that spreads virus.
-see background information here
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Einav
Liran Einav
Stanford
Agree
1
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Finkelstein
Amy Finkelstein
MIT Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Goldberg
Pinelopi Goldberg
Yale
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Goolsbee
Austan Goolsbee
Chicago
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
ROI on these activities seems very high
Hall
Robert Hall
Stanford
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
The failure of executive leadership in government, especially the White House, is tragic.
Hart
Oliver Hart
Harvard
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Hoynes
Hilary Hoynes
Berkeley
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Absolutely! Hard to imagine overspending on vaccine development, given likely spillovers to future work. URL below looks at other issues.
-see background information here
Kaplan
Steven Kaplan
Chicago Booth
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
sad that we are so far behind on some of this basic blocking and tackling. see team stanford for an interesting take
-see background information here
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Strongly Agree
2
Bio/Vote History
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Given the potential length and depth of downturn, it is hard to imagine overinvesting in pandemic-related investment.
Obstfeld
Maurice Obstfeld
Berkeley
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Saez
Emmanuel Saez
Berkeley
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Samuelson
Larry Samuelson
Yale
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
A timely response could have less vigorous and less expensive, but we must now intervene all the more to compensate for wasted time.
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Though hard to measure current investment rates, government greatly underinvested when a serious epidemic became apparent in China.
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Some state governments are flat out others asleep; the federal government should do more now and should prepare for the NEXT pandemic.
Shapiro
Carl Shapiro
Berkeley
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Shimer
Robert Shimer
University of Chicago
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Stock
James Stock
Harvard
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Massive incompetence in delayed testing and supplies acquisition. Thankfully some governors are stepping up.
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History