Huge changes in demand and supply over the last several years (shale gas, Iran-Iraq and global slowdown) account for the bulk of changes.
|Alberto Alesina||Harvard||Uncertain||1||Bio/Vote History|
|Joseph Altonji||Yale||Strongly Disagree||9||Bio/Vote History|
|Alan Auerbach||Berkeley||Strongly Disagree||7||Bio/Vote History|
|David Autor||MIT||Disagree||1||Bio/Vote History|
|Katherine Baicker||Harvard||No Opinion||Bio/Vote History|
There is some anecdotal (and perhaps other) evidence of a cobweb cycle; supply responds to prices with a lag
|Marianne Bertrand||Chicago||Disagree||4||Bio/Vote History|
In the price movements there is a fundamental and a speculative component.
|Raj Chetty||Harvard||Did Not Answer||Bio/Vote History|
The term "speculator" is itself a bit fuzzy. I note one paper that attempts to define the term and the issue, though there are others.
-see background information here
|David Cutler||Harvard||Uncertain||5||Bio/Vote History|
|Angus Deaton||Princeton||Strongly Agree||10||Bio/Vote History|
|Darrell Duffie||Stanford||Strongly Disagree||9||
Speculators just don't have enough capital to hold oil prices artificially high, or low, for months at a time.
|Aaron Edlin||Berkeley||Disagree||7||Bio/Vote History|
|Barry Eichengreen||Berkeley||No Opinion||
Don't know how to answer this. Are airlines buying forward contracts to lock in prices speculators or acting on planned demand for fuel?
|Liran Einav||Stanford||Uncertain||3||Bio/Vote History|
|Ray Fair||Yale||Agree||5||Bio/Vote History|
|Amy Finkelstein||MIT||Did Not Answer||Bio/Vote History|
|Pinelopi Goldberg||Yale||Did Not Answer||Bio/Vote History|
|Austan Goolsbee||Chicago||Strongly Disagree||10||
funny how you never hear about speculators on the way down
|Michael Greenstone||Chicago||Strongly Disagree||7||
i am unaware of any systematic evidence relating speculation to "large movements in monthly oil prices"
What is a speculator? Most asset markets are subject to high unexplained volatility. Lots of debate about its source.
Prices may move frequently as speculators try to anticipate the future, but without speculation the movement would be larger when it occurs.
|Bengt Holmström||MIT||Disagree||6||Bio/Vote History|
|Caroline Hoxby||Stanford||Agree||10||Bio/Vote History|
|Hilary Hoynes||Berkeley||Agree||5||Bio/Vote History|
|Kenneth Judd||Stanford||Strongly Disagree||8||Bio/Vote History|
|Steven Kaplan||Chicago||Strongly Disagree||8||Bio/Vote History|
Expectations about the future are critical and big monthly moves are not because of chance or "speculators" -- changing fundamentals matter.
-see background information here
|Pete Klenow||Stanford||Disagree||4||Bio/Vote History|
|Jonathan Levin||Stanford||Did Not Answer||Bio/Vote History|
|Eric Maskin||Harvard||Agree||7||Bio/Vote History|
Poorly worded. Prices are driven by asset demands, not flows. Term "speculators" is misleading although technically accurate.
|Emmanuel Saez||Berkeley||Strongly Disagree||5||Bio/Vote History|
The price appears to fluctuate more vigorously than can be explained simply by changes in fundamentals.
|José Scheinkman||Princeton||Did Not Answer||Bio/Vote History|
|Richard Schmalensee||MIT||Disagree||8||Bio/Vote History|
|Carl Shapiro||Berkeley||Strongly Disagree||8||Bio/Vote History|
|Robert Shimer||Chicago||Disagree||6||Bio/Vote History|
Supply and demand.
|Christopher Udry||Yale||Disagree||5||Bio/Vote History|
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