Question A:
Freer movement of people to live and work across borders within Europe has made the average western European citizen better off since the 1980s.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question B:
Freer movement of people to live and work across borders within Europe has made many low-skilled western European citizens worse off since the 1980s.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question A Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Philippe Aghion |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Free movement is a good thing economically and in many other ways.
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 Pol Antras |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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As with trade, it would be hard to argue that migration has been worse for the average western citizen.
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 Richard Baldwin |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
 Timothy J. Besley |
LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Nicholas Bloom |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Free movement has improved the matching of skills in europe, there may have been some pressure on wages at the bottom but that is not clear.
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 Agnès Bénassy-Quéré |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Existing studies conclude to higher GDP and net tax receipts in immigration countries.
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 Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Instances of excessive mobility may have led to negative perceptions (feeling of being worse off)
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 Paul De Grauwe |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Ernst Fehr |
Universität Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Xavier Freixas |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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More job opportunities have implied more options and made the average citizen better off
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 Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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If the "average" citizen is mobile it has certainly increased the range of opportunities available to him/her.
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 Luis Garicano |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Francesco Giavazzi |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Martin Hellwig |
Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Scale of growth in intra-EU migration tends to be exaggerated.
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 Henrik Kleven |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Welfare comparisons are hard to substantiate. Moreover, note the identification problem: EU trade and migration happened simultaneously.
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 Per Krusell |
Stockholm University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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People migrate because they want to. Secondary effects are likely positive too.
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 Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Especially when considering that many western European countries have low birth rates and aging populations.
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 Costas Meghir |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Peter Neary |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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All the evidence points to migration as improving productivity in host countries, with very small negative effects on displaced workers
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 Kevin O'Rourke |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Again, no such thing as "average citizen". But these freedoms are very popular across EU, and they surely have increased EU GDP.
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 Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Mobility has not only provided employment to migrant workers, but also raised firm profitability and often wages in recipient countries.
-see background information here |
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 Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Torsten Persson |
Stockholm University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Christopher Pissarides |
London School of Economics and Political Science | Bio/Vote History | ||
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European workers have more choice of work location to maximize their returns
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 Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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There is an extensive empirical literature demonstrating the broad-based economic benefits of migration. Very few losers.
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 Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Hélène Rey |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Efficiency gains from labour mobility, insurance (via remittances) for lower income economies, societal gains from exposure to other culture
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 Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 John Van Reenen |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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People sort according to their comparative advantage. Complement to other EU freedoms
-see background information here |
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 John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Beatrice Weder di Mauro |
The Graduate Institute, Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Karl Whelan |
University College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Agree, though effects on the average person are not the same as on every person.
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 Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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You see European people everywhere at work or in retirement.
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 Fabrizio Zilibotti |
Yale University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Mobility from South to North important for cushioning crisis.
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Question B Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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Philippe Aghion |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I think we are all better off from immigration.
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Pol Antras |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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As with trade, the effects on low-skilled workers are a bit less clear. Immigrants compete more directly with them. Some might have lost.
-see background information here |
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Richard Baldwin |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Timothy J. Besley |
LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Nicholas Bloom |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Free movement has improved matching of skills and capital increasing productivity and income with offsetting effects on the low skilled.
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Agnès Bénassy-Quéré |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Some countries have failed to carry out the needed solcial investment and/or to compensate the losers.
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Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Again inadequate policies are more to blame than mobility itself. Moreover many other low skilled workers have been made better off.
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Paul De Grauwe |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ernst Fehr |
Universität Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Xavier Freixas |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The remuneration of low-skilled labor has gone down except, possibly, for those that emigrate within Europe.
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Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Downward pressure on wages from immigrants with a lower reservation wage.
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Luis Garicano |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Francesco Giavazzi |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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again the question is about movements within europe, thus no doubts
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Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The free movement of workers has probably led higher unemployment amongst some low skilled-workers, but probably not many.
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Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Bio/Vote History | ||
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free movement of labor has been an important mechanism for many low skill workers for finding a job after they lost it during the euro crisi
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Martin Hellwig |
Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Henrik Kleven |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Freer migration has increased GDP, and thus has raised transfers to lower-skilled people. The balance, I believe (!), may well be positive.
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Per Krusell |
Stockholm University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Same as trade question. Some gain, some lose, also among low-skilled workers.
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Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Native wages for lowest-skilled decrease, but also depends on relative skills of migrants to low-skilled natives
-see background information here |
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Costas Meghir |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Peter Neary |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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This is definitely a widespread perception, whipped up by populist politicians; but migrants typically bring skills and consume few services
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Kevin O'Rourke |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Some lose when public services/housing stock aren't expanded, as in UK. I doubt numbers are huge across EU. Real UK problem: domestic policy
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Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The evidence on the effect of immigration from EU (as opposed to non-EU) countries on recipient-countries' low-skill wages is ambiguous.
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Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Torsten Persson |
Stockholm University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Christopher Pissarides |
London School of Economics and Political Science | Bio/Vote History | ||
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migration from east European countries has kept wages of unskilled workers in western countries low
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Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Some, not many., Social and political effects are another story.
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Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hélène Rey |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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effects are very hard to quantify
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Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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John Van Reenen |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Main wage effect of immigrants is small & is on previous cohorts of immigrants
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John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Beatrice Weder di Mauro |
The Graduate Institute, Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Karl Whelan |
University College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Empirical evidence on effects of migration from Eastern Europe suggest limited effects on wages in the UK for example.
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Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I can't remember studies on that issue. My intuition is that low skilled workers moved to services where they benefit from complementarities
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Fabrizio Zilibotti |
Yale University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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True, at best, for specific sectors of the labor market (construction in rich countries). Sorry, I answered this to previous in error...
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