Question A:
The average US citizen would be better off if a larger number of low-skilled foreign workers were legally allowed to enter the US each year.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question B:
Unless they were compensated by others, many low-skilled American workers would be substantially worse off if a larger number of low-skilled foreign workers were legally allowed to enter the US each year.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question A Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
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 Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Real income of avg the American would rise, but social strains and inequality would also increase.
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 Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The median US worker (which is how I interpret the word average) is high skill by global standards
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 Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It depends on whether one takes a long or short-term horizon.
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 Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Janet Currie |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I think it matters a lot whether or not they are granted citizenship which we are not told.
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 Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Labor is a valuable factor input. My answer presumes that many of these new workers would be employed. But I'm not confident of that.
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 Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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This would drive down the cost of a variety of services.
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 Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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"Average US citizen?" What does this mean. Unskilled natives likely to be worse off, skilled native better off. Who's average?
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 Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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If only workers are admitted, we come out ahead because of tax revenue. But it's not so obvious if they bring their families and relatives.
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 Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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On average citizens would be better off--by classical gains from trade . A countervailing effect : welfare payments to unemployed immigrants
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 Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I am sure that I am uncertain. A certain answer would require a knowledge of general eqm effects on which we've only a partial grasp.
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 Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Free trade is as good as migration for traded goods. The impact on nongraded goods is unclear, as are the burdens on social programs.
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 Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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But the gains to immigrants would be large.
-see background information here |
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 Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Card's Ely lecture argues wage effects are small. Pro-immigration arguments partly about welfare of immigrants, rather than residents.
-see background information here |
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 Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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This response is based on the idea that it will increase inequality, which is already too great.
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 Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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There will be gains and losses of various types to various people; it is difficult to reduce these to a net effect on an average citizen.
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 José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Very unclear how to think about the "average" citizen when there would likely be winners and losers.
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 Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Substituting legal immigration for illegal immigration would enhance efficiency and equity.
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 Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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For low skill workers, the main adverse effects are through wages. For high skill, through fiscal costs. Both costs could be small
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 Hyun Song Shin |
Princeton | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Nancy Stokey |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The evidence is that complementarities would make most Americans better off. The data is not decisive, though.
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Question B Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
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Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I agree that the effect would be negative, but believe that it would be modest, not substantial.
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Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It all turns on what fraction of low skilled US workers don't have an option that they clearly prefer to these mostly dead end low paid jobs
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Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Janet Currie |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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A higher number of workers of the same type seeking jobs would lower their average wages or employment rate, other things equal.
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Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Those who compete with low skill immigrants will be hurt by extra competition.
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Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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"substantially" is probably too strong.
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Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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My understanding is that the Mariel question is still up in the air in terms of serious research.
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Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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There can be winners and losers. Similarly skilled workers will face greater competition for jobs and their wages may fall.
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Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Low-skilled workers would probably be worse off but positive gen eqm effects might offset negative direct effects.
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Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It is hard to see how they would benefit, and they would lose from the competition in the labor market.
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Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I believe the evidence show that some low-skilled natives suffer, but whether many suffer substantially not clear given what I know on this
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Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Again, Card's work suggests this is not obvious, although one might expect increased labor market competition.
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Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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"Substantially" is a vague term, but on the whole it would probably lower incomes at the bottom.
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Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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These are the most likely candidates for people who will be adversely affected.
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José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Substituting legal for illegal immigration could provide benefits to low-skilled workers generally, for both economic and political reasons.
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Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Evidence that immigration pushes down low skill wages is mixed
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Hyun Song Shin |
Princeton | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Nancy Stokey |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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No way to answer this without knowing the definition of "many" and "substantially" plus some facts.
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Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The "many" is the problem: some would certainly be hurt (unless compensated). But "many"?
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