Question A:
Because the US has
underspent on new projects, maintenance, or both, the federal government has an
opportunity to increase average incomes by spending more on roads, railways,
bridges and airports.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question B:
Past experience of public spending and political economy suggests that if the government spent more on roads, railways, bridges and airports, many of the projects would have low or negative returns.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question A Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
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 Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Janet Currie |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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One needs to know how the projects will be financed.
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 Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Claudia Goldin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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18 different kinds of coffee but every way to get to them has a pothole
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 Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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yes but possible there are relatively few places w infrastructure deficit (innovative proposal below) lots of opp's eff gains w pricing
-see background information here |
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 Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Serious overspending currently on rail. Roads and bridges need user charges. Not many true public goods that call for higher spending.
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 Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The best evidence with anything like a CAUSAL character suggests that this is untrue. There is lots of junk correlational evidence: ignore.
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 Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Repairing bridges & roads would have been good to do over the last 5 years; the problem is nothing is really shovel ready so it takes time
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 Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
 Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Hyun Song Shin |
Princeton | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Nancy Stokey |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Many roads and bridges need repair.
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 Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Borrowing at negative interest rates and high unemployement rates to stop bridges from collapsing is as close as we get to a no brainer.
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 Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Both of these statements, of course, can be true. The opportunity can be squandered.
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 Luigi Zingales |
Chicago Booth | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Question B Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Average return is likely to be because of underspending in many activities, but many will be adopted because of politics and have <0 returns
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Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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There will be some bad projects, but current infrastructure needs are very large.
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Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Some will have low returns, of course. But the mean and median rate of return will likely be favorable.
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Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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"Many" will have low returns, because the political process doesn't always do a great job picking projects. But some will be very positive.
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Janet Currie |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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"Some" for sure, but many sounds like a majority.
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Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Some of the returns may be lower than those in the private sector, but it may hard be get needed infrastructure but for the government.
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Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Claudia Goldin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Have you been to John Murtha airport?
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Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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currently infra spending does not aim to maximize returns. c. winston research suggests returns are declining but more research is critical
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Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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True for rail. For other infrastructure, the main problem is not the spending, but rather the failure to impose appropriate user charges.
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Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Best credibly CAUSAL evidence suggests this statement is, broadly speaking, correct. Of course, there are exceptions.
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Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Depends on what "many" means, but dollar weighted we do overpay too often. See Calif high speed train
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Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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interests rates are very low---suggesting that returns from public investment might well be good
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William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Depends importantly on whether earmarks play a significant role.
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Hyun Song Shin |
Princeton | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Nancy Stokey |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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In the past both good and bad projects have been funded. The proportion of each? Hard to say without more careful study.
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Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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All depends on what you mean by many. Any portfolio of projects will included duds, in both private and public sector. Change many to some.
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Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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"Many" would surely have low returns. There are difficult empirical problems, but it seems historical experience on average has been good.
-see background information here -see background information here |
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Luigi Zingales |
Chicago Booth | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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