Question A:
Rising inequality is straining the health of liberal democracy.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question B:
Enacting more redistributive expenditures and policies would be likely to limit the rise of populism.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question C:
Governments should allocate more resources to policies that would be likely to limit the rise of populism, even if it means higher public debt or lower public spending in other areas.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question A Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Unshared gains from growth, esp when resulting in part from the political power of the rich, destroy trust in democratic institutions.
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 Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Autor, Dorn, Hanson, Majlesi "Importing Political Polarization" document this for the China Shock. Point applies to inequality generally.
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 Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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A bigger problem might be that incomes haven’t increased meaningfully for the poor nor the middle class
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 Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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This question and the other two do not rely on my expertise as an economist. They require value judgments or political science expertise.
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 Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Look out the *$%# window.
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 Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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We don't understand the rise of populism as a general matter
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 Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Political power often comes with wealth. The ideal is "one person, one vote". "One dollar, one vote" is not democracy.
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 Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Technological change is the driving force. It has disrupted many developed economies including those with less inequality.
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 Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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inequality is an endogenous response to other factor and it is the underlying forces that are creating stress
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 Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
 Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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No the only thing but very important -- esp. on a broad definition of "inequality."
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 Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Inequality coupled with a lack of mobility is especially noxious.
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 José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Alternative explanation is poor performance of the bottom of the earnings distribution
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 James Stock |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Not just inequality, but it is a major part of the story.
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Question B Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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A better social safety net would help. What is needed is not just fiscal redistribution but good jobs (high-wage employment opportunities)
-see background information here |
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Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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i am not sire what "populism" means we should stop us g this very vague word
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Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Genie is out of the bottle. Populism rising even in social welfare states.
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Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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They need to be designed with a sensitivity to what the pain points are, not what we assume they must be.
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Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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These questions are pretty unfocused.....what definition of populism is relevant here?
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Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Resentment from a belief that other people are benefiting from government programs is part of populism
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Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Universal, affordablr healthcare a central example.
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Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Trump's "populist" policy included a reduction in corporate taxation, which will increase inequality. Populists don't seem to care.
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Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Lower inequality in Germany, Italy and, particularly, France (relative to the U.S.) has not limited populism.
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Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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too vague to say much. which policies, what is "populism", are taxes a policy?
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Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hard to know how specific redistributive policies will affect political sentiments
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Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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But the meaning of "populism" is unclear. I assume means right-wing authoritarian, but could be any-wing.
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Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Some may be necessary but redistribution far from sufficient and could be counter-productive if taken too far or done wrong.
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Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It's not necessarily $ expenditures that are needed but ways to rebalance power to boost pre-tax incomes of working class (min wage, unions)
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Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The sources of populism are complicated and not well understood, but addressing inequality should be part of an effective antidote.
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José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Depends on specifics of policies
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Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hard to be too confident, since symbols often matter more than substance.
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Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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James Stock |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The redistribution has to be designed well in order to achieve legitimacy.
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Question C Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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More spending for a more generous and rational social safety net, job creation programs and education are vital. This needs more tax revenue
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Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I think these policies are worth enacting, even though they probably won't limit rise of populism.
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Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Depends on the choice of policies.
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Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Governments should address inequality but I am not sure we have enough evidence of what "causes" populism.
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David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Depends on the policy. Some "anti-populist" policies could impinge on free speech. Redistribution or education could be effective.
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Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Depends on the particulars. See Barry Eichengreen, "The Populist Temptation: Economic Grievance & Political Reaction in the Modern Era"
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Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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the intended definition of populism is too broad here. and, i don't think we know which policies affect populism.
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Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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We don't know what those would be
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Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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You left off the choice of higher taxes - it doesnt have to come from more debt or less other spending.
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Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Government should focus on doing its job in providing education and safety. Populism is partly based on a view that government is not.
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Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Not sure what the right solution is, but more redistribution has not helped in France and Western Europe.
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Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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same general concerns as with the second question
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Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Would prefer to evaluate policies based on whether they broaden opportunity vs whether they achieve short term political objective
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Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Aside from being bad policy, unclear would help.
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Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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With low for long interest rates it's feasible -- and the rise of populism partly represents market failures that government could address.
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Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I would prefer to see governments address inequality, but would need more policy details to have in informed judgement.
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José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The objective of economic policy should be increasing welfare and lower inequality but not to directly affect success of populism.
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Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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This is an argument for politics over substance.
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Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It's unclear what those policies would be
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James Stock |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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