Thursday, January 25th, 2018 10:03 am

Immigration and Innovation

Over the past two years, all else equal, the appeal of the US as a destination for immigrants has changed in ways that will likely decrease innovation in the US economy.

Responses
 

Source: European IGM Economic Experts Panel
www.igmchicago.org/european-economic-experts-panel

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Source: European IGM Economic Experts Panel
www.igmchicago.org/european-economic-experts-panel
Participant University Vote Confidence Comment Bio/Vote History
Aghion Philippe Aghion Harvard Did Not Answer
Bio/Vote History
         
Allen Franklin Allen Imperial College London Agree 8
Trump's election has put off many creative people who might otherwise be interested in moving to the US.
Bio/Vote History
         
Antras Pol Antras Harvard Strongly Agree 8
The role of immigrants in U.S. innovation has been and continues to be very important. A decline in immigration will harm U.S. innovation.
Bio/Vote History
         
Besley Timothy J. Besley LSE Did Not Answer
Bio/Vote History
         
Blanchard Olivier Blanchard Peterson Institute Agree 4
Bio/Vote History
         
Bloom Nicholas Bloom Stanford Agree 7
Blocking Iranians has been very costly for Silicon Valley - there are many Iranian scientists, engineers and VC funders.
-see background information here
Bio/Vote History
         
Blundell Richard William Blundell University College London Did Not Answer
Bio/Vote History
         
Bénassy-Quéré Agnès Bénassy-Quéré Paris School of Economics Agree 6
Bio/Vote History
         
Carletti Elena Carletti Bocconi No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
         
Danthine Jean-Pierre Danthine Paris School of Economics Agree 3
Bio/Vote History
         
De Grauwe Paul De Grauwe LSE Agree 8
Bio/Vote History
         
Eeckhout Jan Eeckhout University College London Agree 7
Migration is disproportionately by high and low skilled, less by middle skilled. Less entry of high skilled might stifle innovation.
Bio/Vote History
         
Fehr Ernst Fehr Universität Zurich Did Not Answer
Bio/Vote History
         
Freixas Xavier Freixas Universitat Pompeu Fabra Did Not Answer
Bio/Vote History
         
Fuchs-Schündeln Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln Goethe-Universität Frankfurt Did Not Answer
Bio/Vote History
         
Galí Jordi Galí Universitat Pompeu Fabra No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
         
Garicano Luis Garicano LSE Did Not Answer
Bio/Vote History
         
Giavazzi Francesco Giavazzi Bocconi Disagree 5
on average really motivated people will still be able to get there
Bio/Vote History
         
Griffith Rachel Griffith University of Manchester Agree 6
Bio/Vote History
         
Guerrieri Veronica Guerrieri Chicago Booth Agree 6
Bio/Vote History
         
Guiso Luigi Guiso Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance Strongly Agree 10
empirical evidence shows that immigrants are among the most successful US entrepreneurs
Bio/Vote History
         
Honohan Patrick Honohan Trinity College Dublin Agree 3
Bio/Vote History
         
Kleven Henrik Kleven Princeton Did Not Answer
Bio/Vote History
         
Krahnen Jan Pieter Krahnen Goethe University Frankfurt Agree 7
I know a few excellent students who in earlier years would have applied for a top US school, and who now prefer to stay in Europe.
Bio/Vote History
         
Krusell Per Krusell Stockholm University Strongly Agree 5
President Trump is broadly disliked by highly educated people abroad and my GUESS is that these people think twice before moving to the U.S.
Bio/Vote History
         
Kőszegi Botond Kőszegi Central European University No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
         
La Ferrara Eliana La Ferrara Bocconi Agree 5
Bio/Vote History
         
Leuz Christian Leuz Chicago Booth Agree 7
Will have neg impact on US human capital, which has tight link to innovation. Magnitude less clear. Impact seen in applications for MBA prgs
Bio/Vote History
         
Meghir Costas Meghir Yale Did Not Answer
Bio/Vote History
         
Neary Peter Neary Oxford Agree 8
Hostility to immigrants deters newcomers. Mainland European and Asian countries are seeking to benefit from this.
Bio/Vote History
         
O'Rourke Kevin O'Rourke Oxford Agree 3
Trump's America is not appealing. On the other hand whether you want to go there or not depends on what your alternative is. Which varies.
Bio/Vote History
         
Pagano Marco Pagano Università di Napoli Federico II Strongly Agree 6
Bio/Vote History
         
Pastor Lubos Pastor Chicago Booth Agree 5
Bio/Vote History
         
Persson Torsten Persson Stockholm University Agree 8
Bio/Vote History
         
Pissarides Christopher Pissarides LSE Did Not Answer
Bio/Vote History
         
Portes Richard Portes London Business School Agree 8
Bio/Vote History
         
Prendergast Canice Prendergast Chicago Booth Agree 8
Bio/Vote History
         
Reichlin Lucrezia Reichlin London Business School Strongly Disagree 9
Bio/Vote History
         
Repullo Rafael Repullo CEMFI Agree 8
Bio/Vote History
         
Rey Hélène Rey London Business School Did Not Answer
Bio/Vote History
         
Schoar Antoinette Schoar MIT Strongly Agree 9
William Kerr, U.S. High-Skilled Immigration, Innovation, and Entrepreneurship, NBER Working Paper No. 19337
Bio/Vote History
         
Van Reenen John Van Reenen MIT Strongly Agree 7
Bio/Vote History
         
Vickers John Vickers Oxford Agree 5
Bio/Vote History
         
Voth Hans-Joachim Voth University of Zurich Strongly Agree 9
Bio/Vote History
         
Weder di Mauro Beatrice Weder di Mauro Gutenberg University Mainz and INSEAD Strongly Agree 8
Many students and researchers are no longer interested in going to the US
Bio/Vote History
         
Whelan Karl Whelan University College Dublin Did Not Answer
Bio/Vote History
         
Wyplosz Charles Wyplosz The Graduate Institute Geneva Did Not Answer
Bio/Vote History
         
Zilibotti Fabrizio Zilibotti Universität Zurich Did Not Answer
Bio/Vote History
         

About the European IGM Economic Experts Panel

This panel explores the views of European economists on vital public policy issues. It does this by polling them on important policy questions, by including a way for them to explain their answers briefly if they wish, and by disseminating these responses directly to the public in a simple format.

To that end, our panel was chosen to include distinguished experts with a keen interest in public policy from the main areas of economics, to be geographically diverse, and to include older and younger scholars. As with the IGM’s US panel, the experts are all outstanding researchers in their fields. The panel includes recipients of top national and international prizes in economics, fellows of the Econometric society and the European Economic Association, members of distinguished national and international policymaking bodies in Europe, recipients of significant grants for economic research, highly accomplished affiliates and program directors of the Centre for Economic Policy Research and the National Bureau of Economic Research, and past and current editors of leading academic journals in the profession. This approach not only provides a set of panelists whose names will be familiar to other economists and the media, but also delivers a group with impeccable qualifications to speak on public policy matters in Europe and beyond.

Questions for the European IGM Economic Experts Panel are emailed individually to all members of the panel. They are phrased as statements with which one can agree or disagree. The experts are also asked how confident they are in their knowledge of the issue associated with the question (10 being highest). Each panelist responds electronically at his or her convenience. Panelists may consult whatever resources they like before answering. They may also include brief comments with their responses, or provide links to relevant sources.

It is important to explain one aspect of our voting process. In some instances a panelist may neither agree nor disagree with a statement, and there can be two very different reasons for this. One case occurs when an economist knows a lot about a topic and yet sees the evidence on the exact claim at hand as ambiguous. In such cases our panelists vote "uncertain". A second case relates to statements on topics so far removed from the economist's knowledge that he or she does not feel well placed to judge. In this case, our panelists vote "no opinion".

Panelists suggest many of the questions themselves. Members of the public are also welcome to suggest questions (see link below). Although IGM faculty members are responsible for deciding the final version of each question, we send a draft of the question to the panel in advance and invite them to point out problems with the wording if they see any. This process helps us to reduce vagueness or problems of interpretation.

The panel data are copyrighted by the Initiative on Global Markets and will be analyzed for an article to appear in a peer-reviewed journal.

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