New technology for fracking natural gas, by lowering energy costs in the United States, will make US industrial firms more cost competitive and thus significantly stimulate the growth of US merchandise exports. (The experts panel previously voted on this question on May 23, 2012. Those earlier results can be found here.)
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
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 Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Two caveats. How significant this effect will be is uncertain. It might have negative side effects by discouraging switch to cleaner energy.
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 Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The effect on the world price of energy is probably small and would be partly balanced by a rise in the dollar as US imports drop.
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 Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Transportation costs for natural gas are sufficient to imply that the US will face prices below the world price of energy.
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 Janet Currie |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The part I am uncertain about is whether lower energy costs are likely to have a significant effect on the competitiveness of U.S. exports.
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 David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Lower an input cost and produce at a lower total cost. The statement does not consider the environmental costs, which may be significant.
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 Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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In a global market for energy, US and foreign manufacturing firms will ultimately face the same energy costs.
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 Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Ray Fair |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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at least while our extraction technology is better than everyone else's (we're not the only ones with shale reserves)
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 Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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unlikely to be significant & extent depends on export restrictions. Welfare likely maximized with no restrictions. see below reference.
-see background information here |
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 Robert Hall |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I agree that energy cost should fall, which will increase U.S. competitiveness. The effects on growth are more subtle, and harder to predict
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 Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Fuel prices are largely set on a world market so the supply in any one country does not reduce its producers' input costs markedly.
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 Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I have learned that this energy source will mainly produce local gains & US manufacturers probably will benefit. Magnitudes still uncertain
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 Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
 Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Definitely agree on direction, less confident about magnitudes.
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 Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Clearly will make more competitive in some sectors, but unlikely to make major impact on aggregate.
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 Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Absent frictions, prices would fall world wide. We can expect US firms to gain from some frictions, though the magnitude is hard to assess.
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 José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Not sure about "significantly". Cost advantage will diminish as LNG transportation infrastructure develops and export restrictions drop.
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 Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Natural gas prices are NOT determined in a world market. Prices in the US will be cheaper than those in most nations for a long time.
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 Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Fracking will reduce energy imports and hence reduce net exports of other goods. This doesn't mean that fracking is a bad idea!
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 Nancy Stokey |
University of Chicago | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Isn't oil a global commodity?
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 Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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At best a short-run and insignificant effect; prices are set in a global market.
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