New technology for fracking natural gas, by lowering energy costs in the United States, will make US industrial firms more cost competitive and thus significantly stimulate the growth of US merchandise exports.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
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 Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Natural gas prices will fall, but this may affect world price as much as U.S. price. Not sure whether U.S. production affects U.S. price.
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 Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Janet Currie |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Energy costs are set largely in the world market. Moreover, environmental degradation could make areas less competitive in the long run.
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 David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Isn't this what the Dutch disease is about?
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 Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The question did not ask whether the associated envirnomental costs are large. I do not know the answer to that question.
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 Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Substantially lowering energy costs would make U.S. firms more competitive, but at a potentially veyr high environmental price.
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 Claudia Goldin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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But I don't know how much it would stimulate economic growth and, thus, I could not claim that it would be "substantial."
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 Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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lower prices help w exports of manufacturing but i bet "significantly" is too strong. better ? is should we export nat gas & answer is yes
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 Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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More important, it raises real income and thus consumption. We don't really care about exports, only consumer well-being.
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 Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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A silly gotcha q! Fracking may lower gas price but it's traded on world mkt so it won't make any country's exports more cost competitive.Duh
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 Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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3 uncertain steps. Natural gas prices might fall, but cost savings might be minimal, & share of energy costs may be too small to matter.
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 Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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My colleague Frank Wolak says the cost of oil is about $16/MMBTU vs. about $2.50/MMBTU for natural gas.
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 Edward Lazear |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Qualifications that clearly correct but unclear about how large.
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 Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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In a global market, natural gas prices would fall worldwide helping foreign economies too. US-specific effects depend on market barriers.
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 Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Hyun Song Shin |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 James Stock |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Nancy Stokey |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Energy costs are too small a share of total mfg costs to have a big impact. Labor costs are the lion's share of the total.
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 Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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US energy prices are driven by world supply and demand, so the effect on US growth is realized only if global prices are moderated.
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 Luigi Zingales |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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In the answer I am ignoring any potential environemtal impact
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