Question A:
Severe lockdowns – including closing non-essential businesses and strict limitations on people’s movement – are likely to be better for the economy in the medium term than less aggressive measures.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question B:
While national governments have responded to the crisis with substantial economic policy measures, a joint euro area fiscal response is still highly desirable.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question C:
Given the willingness of the European Central Bank to buy sovereign bonds, including Italian bonds, without limits, there is no need for ‘coronabonds’.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question A Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Pol Antras |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
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the conclusion of most of the models I have looked at.
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 Nicholas Bloom |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Strong lockdowns are good for disease control but bad for the economy - there is a policy trade-off
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 Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Agnès Bénassy-Quéré |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Not sure the comparison with the Spanish plague is fully appropriate since covid does not kill the labor force.
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 Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I agree wherever there is limited availability of infection tests and restriction in tracing the contagion (Europe today).
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 Paul De Grauwe |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Testing and tracing as in South Korea might be better than severe lockdown
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 Ernst Fehr |
Universität Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Xavier Freixas |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hospital capacity is limited and the economic value of life in Europe is high
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 Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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From a strict economic point of view, the longer and tighter the lockdowns the larger the negative effects (bankruptcies, debt, etc)
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 Francesco Giavazzi |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Beata Javorcik |
University of Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Given a situation of radical uncertainty with slow Bayesian updating on pandemic fundamentals, a maxmin strategy suggests tough action early
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 Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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No med expert, but several studies suggest strict measures have econ benefits of lives saved that outweigh value of projected losses of GDP.
-see background information here -see background information here -see background information here -see background information here -see background information here |
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 Thierry Mayer |
Sciences-Po | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Costas Meghir |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Mass sickness will not only disable many workers but will also reduce confidence and increase uncertainty.
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 Peter Neary |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The alternative to lockdowns is not a return to "normal" but many people unwilling to work even though allowed to, and soaring death rates
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 Kevin O'Rourke |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The faster you contain and eliminate contagion, the faster people can go back to work. If you do not, people will simply not go back to work
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 Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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assuming medium term is long enough
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 Torsten Persson |
Stockholm University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Christopher Pissarides |
London School of Economics and Political Science | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Lockdown should be able to get rid of the disease in the medium term. Less severe measures cannot unless they are accompanied by mass tests
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 Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Hélène Rey |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It depends on the accompanying measures of a partial lockdown (testing and tracking, see Singapore)
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 Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Daniel Sturm |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 John Van Reenen |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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There are too many epidemiological unknowns. Much depends on exit path from lockdown.
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 Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Beatrice Weder di Mauro |
The Graduate Institute, Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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because it may allow faster reopen.
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 Karl Whelan |
University College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Economic activity will return closer to normality when there is extensive testing and tracing. Lockdowns give time to develop this.
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 Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ceteris paribus, but large-scale testing and selective isolation may be better. Watch out for the Swedish experiment too.
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 Fabrizio Zilibotti |
Yale University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Question B Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Pol Antras |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
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desirable yes, highly perhaps not. can go a long way with just domestic fiscal policies
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Nicholas Bloom |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Closing borders will hamper the recovery
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Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Agnès Bénassy-Quéré |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Relying entirely on the ECB is dangerous.
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Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Paul De Grauwe |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ernst Fehr |
Universität Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Xavier Freixas |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ex-post insurance seems a socially desirable mechanism when moral hazard is not involved.
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Francesco Giavazzi |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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If not now when? Common shock, potentially divergent consequences including externalities.
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Beata Javorcik |
University of Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Without a coordinated European answer, the crisis may spill into the banking sector, and also to sovereign risk - endangering the Eurozone
-see background information here |
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Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Coordination of response very desirable; Not clear more is needed right now, but solidarity is important & opportunity to show EU matters.
-see background information here -see background information here |
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Thierry Mayer |
Sciences-Po | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Costas Meghir |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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A common currency area can only be sustained in the long run if the absence of country-level monetary policy is replaced by mutual insurance
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Peter Neary |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Common monetary policy combined with unlinked national fiscal policies has never made sense. In a crisis its problems are even greater
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Kevin O'Rourke |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Fighting a pandemic and recovering from it involves large externalities and gains from cooperation. If not now, when?
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Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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If not now, when?
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Torsten Persson |
Stockholm University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Christopher Pissarides |
London School of Economics and Political Science | Bio/Vote History | ||
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As in dealing with other crises coordinated fiscal policy is better for the group as a whole than independent policies
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Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hélène Rey |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Massive symmetric shock, some countries constrained by lack of fiscal space
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Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Daniel Sturm |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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John Van Reenen |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Beatrice Weder di Mauro |
The Graduate Institute, Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Karl Whelan |
University College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Avoids lots of competing debt issuance. Reduces market concerns about sovereign default on the bonds used to finance the crisis spending.
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Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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A selective response. Need to allow all governments to run large temporary deficits. Coordination of targeted fiscal measures il illusory.
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Fabrizio Zilibotti |
Yale University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Question C Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Pol Antras |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Too strong: can do without bonds but with ecb commitment. more peace of mind with corona bonds
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Nicholas Bloom |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Agnès Bénassy-Quéré |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The ECB would also have to roll over its holding over a long period + face legal and political problems
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Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I tend to disagree: a special treatment of Italy will create severe tensions if there cannot be ex-ante agreement on a mutualized solution.
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Paul De Grauwe |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ernst Fehr |
Universität Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Xavier Freixas |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Coronabonds would allow for irresponsible long government spending, while ECB buying bonds would be a good discipline
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Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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If the ECB response is sufficient to contain spreads, I agree. But this is uncertain at this point.
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Francesco Giavazzi |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Not now needed to stabilize national financial markets, but desirable for dealing collectively with what is a common shock.
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Beata Javorcik |
University of Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The ECB can't do miracles. Rather, we must invent a better instrument than Corona-bonds - that avoids its traps and convinces its critics.
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Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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ECB strategy might give enough room, but not sure sustainable; prefer transparent fiscal response by EU; not sure co-bonds can deliver this.
-see background information here |
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Thierry Mayer |
Sciences-Po | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Costas Meghir |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Peter Neary |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Coronabonds would only be credible and equitable between countries if issued centrally, and that would require much greater integration
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Kevin O'Rourke |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Despite the ECB bond purchases, servicing Italian public debt is more expensive than servicing Eurobonds would.
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Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Coronabonds issued temporarily and eligible for purchase by the ECB would help solve the fiscal challenge in Europe.
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Torsten Persson |
Stockholm University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Christopher Pissarides |
London School of Economics and Political Science | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
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A joint fiscal response would be highly desirable, but it need not be through coronabonds.
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Hélène Rey |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Corona bonds understood as long term bonds (30 years+) jointly issued would be the best response. Otherwise ECB under political pressure.
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Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It depends on the structure of these loans.
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Daniel Sturm |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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John Van Reenen |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Need depends on whose perspective you take. Beware political dangers of using this crisis to create eurobonds without federal institutions
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Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Beatrice Weder di Mauro |
The Graduate Institute, Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Europe will need several fiscal instruments to tackle different issues of mitigating this crisis, rebooting and opening borders again.
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Karl Whelan |
University College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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ECB secondary market purchases won't stop concerns about sovereign default.Questions also about the extent of credit losses ECB could take.
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Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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ECB is lender in last resort. Coronabonds or, better, a changed corona-lending by ESM should be first resort.
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Fabrizio Zilibotti |
Yale University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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