US

Chairman Bernanke

Informed postmortems of Ben Bernanke’s Fed chairmanship will judge favorably the Fed's creative and aggressive policy initiatives from autumn 2008 through early 2009.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Alesina
Alberto Alesina
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
This is hearsay because I don't "do" monetary policy. But everything I've read says that Ben was extraordinarily creative and effective.
Baicker
Katherine Baicker
University of Chicago
Agree
1
Bio/Vote History
Banerjee
Abhijit Banerjee
MIT
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
He had to find creative ways to get around a number of institutional constraints to do the needful and he did
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Brunnermeier
Markus Brunnermeier
Princeton
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
The ultimate judgement will depend on the exit strategy and how easily the fed will return to a more rule-based policy.
Chetty
Raj Chetty
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Currie
Janet Currie
Princeton
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
I don't like the "informed postmortems" part. There is little agreement in macro.
Deaton
Angus Deaton
Princeton
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Strong action as a lender of last resort was essential. This is what central banks do. In this instance, innovation by the Fed was crucial.
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Future views of the past are hard to predict with precision. That said, things would probably have been much worse without the Feds actions
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Fed could have been even more aggressive. Could have recognized problems in shadow banking system earlier. But hindsight is 20/20.
Einav
Liran Einav
Stanford
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Let's see how the unwinding works. Also, some of the policies had bad income-distribution consequences and some were fiscal policies.
Finkelstein
Amy Finkelstein
MIT
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Goldberg
Pinelopi Goldberg
Yale
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Goolsbee
Austan Goolsbee
Chicago
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
No Ben, no avoiding depression. Full stop.
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
The counterfactual state of the world with muted, Fed responses is an ugly one.
Hall
Robert Hall
Stanford
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Generally true. Some doubts about whether it would have been possible to impose haircuts on debtholders rather than use public funds.
Hart
Oliver Hart
Harvard
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
A policy where the Fed let financial institutions go bankrupt or helped home-owners directly might have been better, but we will never know
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT
Strongly Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford
Uncertain
8
Bio/Vote History
In retrospect, some responses seem prescient, others misguided or based on false premises. Phil Swagel's paper is a great read on this.
-see background information here
Hoynes
Hilary Hoynes
Berkeley
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
It is hard to have confidence on this opinion. It is difficult to predict how history will play out; this is not just "economic" predictions
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Kaplan
Steven Kaplan
Chicago Booth
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
The financial crisis was a solvency crisis. The Bernanke (and Paulson) actions were instrumental in keeping the financial sector solvent.
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Public may not appreciate this, but Bernanke's Fed helped stave off Depression 2.0. Record before and after will be more controversial.
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Strongly Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford
Strongly Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Obstfeld
Maurice Obstfeld
Berkeley
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Saez
Emmanuel Saez
Berkeley
Strongly Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Samuelson
Larry Samuelson
Yale
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
We'll never know the counterfactual, but there is reason to believe that Ben Bernanke helped avert disaster, despite an ineffective Congress
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Shapiro
Carl Shapiro
Berkeley
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Important not to forget how dire the situation was at that time.
Shimer
Robert Shimer
University of Chicago
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
More subjective than most questions. Likely that economists will disagree about this in the future. But I judge Bernanke's actions favorably
Shin
Hyun Song Shin
Princeton Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Stokey
Nancy Stokey
University of Chicago
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Bernanke understood very well the policy errors of the Fed during the Great Depression and had the courage to avoid repeating them.
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth
Agree
1
Bio/Vote History
Hard to predict what hindsight will suggest, but it think he did well in extremely difficult times.
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History