Question A:
Following the UK election result, the certainty that the country is going to leave the European Union will provide a substantial short-term boost to the UK economy.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question B:
The near certainty that the UK will leave the European Union’s customs union and single market in 2020 offers a sizeable export market opportunity for American business.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question A Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
very hard to predict
|
||||
 Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Answer depends on benchmark. The uncertainty is not removed since the new treaty btw EU and UK still has to be negotiated.
|
||||
 Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
It did! For a few days.
|
||||
 Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
The election news could have had either effect, in principle. The pound strengthened, possibly signaling the impact of reduced uncertainty.
|
||||
 Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
There remains much uncertainty including how economy will respond.
|
||||
 Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Disagree with substantial. If it's large, the BoE will take offsetting action. And there's still great trade uncertainty going forward.
|
||||
 Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
What could possibly go wrong?
|
||||
 Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
There is some evidence that resolution of uncertainty with preserved mean is good, but remain might deliver a better mean.
|
||||
 Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
I doubt that any benefit would be substantial.
|
||||
 Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
the ambiguity over the future relationship is still going to be important. if that were resolved positively, a bump is possible
|
||||
 Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
 Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Uncertainty about the UK's ultimate trading relationships will persist beyond December 2020.
|
||||
 Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Economies loathe uncertainty. Making a departure nearly certain will boost the economy; "significantly" is more difficult to predict.
|
||||
 José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Although Brexit seems decided, uncertainty about final trade deal remains.
|
||||
 Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Lots of uncertainty and, more importantly, downside risk, remains
|
||||
 James Stock |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
I have no idea what the market will do but whatever happens the cause will not be “certainty”. No one knows what Brexit will bring.
|
||||
 Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
