Question A:
Bitcoins are more similar to gold than they are to currency.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question B:
Bitcoins are more similar to gold than they are to Dutch tulips in the 1630s.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question A Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
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 Philippe Aghion |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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At the moment Bitcoin is more of an investment than a medium of exchange and so is closer to gold. The reason is the price volatility.
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 Pol Antras |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Timothy J. Besley |
LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Nicholas Bloom |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Agnès Bénassy-Quéré |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Except that you cannot make nice necklaces with bitcoins.
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 Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Paul De Grauwe |
LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Ernst Fehr |
Universität Zurich | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Xavier Freixas |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Bitcoins are a bubble. Gold embodies a bubble but has a fundamental industrial value. Currencies are a bubbles backed by the government.
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 Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Bitcoins, like currency, are used as a means of payment. Gold is not. Gold has a fundamental value.
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 Luis Garicano |
LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Francesco Giavazzi |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Gold has intrinsic value. Bitcoin value, like currency, depends mainly on social or political conventions.
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 Henrik Kleven |
Princeton | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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A bitcoin is a private bet on becoming a (public) legal tender, and on earning the seignorage.
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 Per Krusell |
Stockholm University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It has no intrinsic value: like currency. Its liquidity: unclear, but similar w many currencies. It is a medium of exchange for criminals.
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 Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Bitcoin is neither close to gold nor to a currency. Studies show that its asset prices so far do not behave like gold or other currencies.
-see background information here |
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 Costas Meghir |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Peter Neary |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Bitcoins have feature of currency, though volatility makes them undesirable except for speculation. Blockchain technology more important
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 Kevin O'Rourke |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Like gold, bitcoin has stable supply, unstable purchasing power, and no central bank to back it up
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 Torsten Persson |
Stockholm University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Christopher Pissarides |
London School of Economics and Political Science | Bio/Vote History | ||
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They are not currency: no central bank involved and not used in every day transactions. Not exactly like gold: gold has other uses
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 Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Bitcoins not an accepted means of exchange, nor unit of account, nor stable store of value. So not money.
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 Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Bitcoins are not commodity money (like gold) but rather fiat money (without the backing of a sovereign).
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 Hélène Rey |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Bitcoins lack characteristics of fiat money (legal tender, trust in issuing state, good store of value, good medium of exchange)
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 Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 John Van Reenen |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Bitcoins are almost useless as currency... but like gold, in limited supply.
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 Beatrice Weder di Mauro |
The Graduate Institute, Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The bitcoin supply is asymptotically fixed , as opposed to fiat money.
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 Karl Whelan |
University College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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On the relative similarity I agree but gold has actual uses (e.g. jewellery) which gives it some value. Bitcoin will likely end up worthless
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 Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Bitcoins are a parallel currency, with no intrinsic value, very different from gold. But the supply is limited, like gold.
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 Fabrizio Zilibotti |
Yale University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Question B Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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Philippe Aghion |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I think Bitcoin is not necessarily a bubble since it does have uses, eg, transferring value from Venezuela to the US.
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Pol Antras |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Timothy J. Besley |
LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Like bitcoin, the two assets have some intrinsic value. Much of their price however reflects a bubble. A draw
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Nicholas Bloom |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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This feels like a classic bubble - my guess is 10 years from now they will be valueless.
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Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Agnès Bénassy-Quéré |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Both gold and tulips are bubbles. Gold has a larger intrinsic value plus a long history as a safe haven asset.
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Paul De Grauwe |
LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ernst Fehr |
Universität Zurich | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Xavier Freixas |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Currencies are backed by tax collection.
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Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Like the price of Dutch tulips in the 1630s, bitcoins' price seems to have a large bubble component. Gold's is likely smaller.
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Luis Garicano |
LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Francesco Giavazzi |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Bitcoin has a payments function unlike those tulip bulbs
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Henrik Kleven |
Princeton | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Again, tulips had developed into a mutually accepted expression of value, and bulbs were seen as the key (algorithm) to replication/mining.
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Per Krusell |
Stockholm University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Gold is also a medium of exchange though not a very liquid one.
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Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Investors might be speculating on bitcoins being used in some future application, but there are many competitors or alternatives.
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Costas Meghir |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Peter Neary |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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If I knew the answer I would take a position on them!
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Kevin O'Rourke |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Little similarity to tulips besides the recent bubble-like price pattern
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Torsten Persson |
Stockholm University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Christopher Pissarides |
London School of Economics and Political Science | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Tulips, from what I know, have very little other uses
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Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Bitcoins are bubble like tulips. And not even pretty to look at. Gold not bubble (and is rather pretty).
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Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Dutch tulips can hardly serve as commodity money.
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Hélène Rey |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Gold has some durable intrinsic value (jewels). Bitcoins have none.
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Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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John Van Reenen |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Tulips are highly differentiated goods; bitcoin are not. But both bitcoin and tulips have no business being very valuable...
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Beatrice Weder di Mauro |
The Graduate Institute, Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Fantasy plays a large part in the pricing of bitcoin.
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Karl Whelan |
University College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The tulips thing was a long time ago and there are various disagreements about it. But yes Bitcoin is more pure speculation than even gold.
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Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Tulips were subject to a bubble, which also applies to bitcoins, and occasionally to gold.
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Fabrizio Zilibotti |
Yale University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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