Question A:
Without changes in policy, a rising share of people who are over age 65 will exert a substantial downward influence on per capita real GDP in western European countries.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question B:
In European countries where the share of those over 65 is rising, there are net social benefits to adjusting retirement ages for state-financed (including pay-as-you-go) pension systems upwards, so that revised retirement ages better reflect longer life expectancies.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question A Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Philippe Aghion |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It depends on how easy it is for them to keep working. The easier it is the less likely this scenario will unfold.
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 Pol Antras |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hard to argue against "downward influence". A different matter is whether GDP per capita will fall, which is possible but unlikely
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 Richard Baldwin |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Timothy J. Besley |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It is not just about policy but also about shifting social norms. Traditional notions of "retirement" are now increasingly outdated.
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 Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The direct effect is nearly by construction. The indirect effects, on pay as you go, on fiscal balance, are well documented
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 Nicholas Bloom |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Current policies reduce incentives to work after 65. Good evidence that these can be reformed successfully.
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 Agnès Bénassy-Quéré |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Paul De Grauwe |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Without changes in legislation the fiscal burden of pensions will require further taxation of the working population
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 Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Ernst Fehr |
Universität Zurich | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Xavier Freixas |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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European pension and care systems are still ill prepared to cope with the increased aging.
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 Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Luis Garicano |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Francesco Giavazzi |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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indeed it depends on policies. Aging accompanied by improvemente in human capital of the youth could have the opposite effect.
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 Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Bio/Vote History | ||
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What matters is the ratio of economically dependent to economically productive people. How this will change with ageing is unclear.
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 Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Martin Hellwig |
Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods | Bio/Vote History | ||
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As the statement is formulated, it is a trusm. The real issue is whether people's standards of living will fall below what they are used to.
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 Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Average withdrawal age from labour market too low.
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 Henrik Kleven |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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There are negative effects, but it also depends on the reasons for the rising dependency ratio (e.g. better health is good for growth)
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 Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The emphasis is on "without change in policy" - but it is those changes that will weigh heavily on the policy agenda, e.g. retirement age.
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 Per Krusell |
Stockholm University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Mechanical argument but correct; behavioral responses exist but are limited.
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 Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
 Costas Meghir |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Peter Neary |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Automation could conceivably offset fall in labor input to population ratio but unlikely
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 Kevin O'Rourke |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
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People over 65 tend to have lower productivity and require more spending on pensions and health care provision than others.
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 Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Torsten Persson |
Stockholm University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Christopher Pissarides |
London School of Economics and Political Science | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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If migration is further restricted, we shall need higher participation rates and retraining for those over 65, hence policy interventions.
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 Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Hélène Rey |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 John Van Reenen |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Key thing is to extend working life through extending retirement age and making it more flexible to enable healthy older people to wrok
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 John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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this is a supposition that seems logical but empirical evidence seems weak in general
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 Beatrice Weder di Mauro |
The Graduate Institute, Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Karl Whelan |
University College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Mechanically, this seems true on both the demand and supply side. But many things may go in the other direction.
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 Fabrizio Zilibotti |
Yale University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Question B Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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Philippe Aghion |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Yes, people need to work longer given the demographic distribution and increased longevity.
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Pol Antras |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It's not just higher life expectancy, but also better health at current health retirement ages
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Richard Baldwin |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Timothy J. Besley |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Indexing to life expectancy makes sense and helps to depoliticize these decisions in future once the rule has been widely agreed.
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Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
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increase in retirement age, given increase in life expectancy and state of health, seems the least painful way to adjust.
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Nicholas Bloom |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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For many, working later in life is attractive relative to higher costs of social security. Requires redistribution to those in poor health.
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Agnès Bénassy-Quéré |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Promoting flexibility in the retirement age (with actuarially fair rent adjustments) is more important than compulsory later retirement
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Paul De Grauwe |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ernst Fehr |
Universität Zurich | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Xavier Freixas |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The low natality combined with higher life expectation imply a heavy burden on young generations.
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Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Luis Garicano |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Francesco Giavazzi |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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in some countries (e.g. Italy) retirement age isindedd already indexed to average life expectancy
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Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Bio/Vote History | ||
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this is the most sensible policy to guarantee the sustainability of pay as you go systems in European countries
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Martin Hellwig |
Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods | Bio/Vote History | ||
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People not only live longer but also remain vigorous and healthy for longer. Reduce distirbutional conflict between generations.
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Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Henrik Kleven |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Increasing retirement age will go hand in hand with changing work conditions. As a consequence, productivity of elderly is likely to rise.
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Per Krusell |
Stockholm University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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To the extent there is cont'd general productivity growth and we get richer, people may want more leisure, but this effect is likely small.
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Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Need to consider distributional impact: increase in life expectancy is higher for high-wage earners.
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Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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If benefits defined as pc GDP, not so clear if defined broader. Likely unpopular so indexing is option. Consider alternatives as well.
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Costas Meghir |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Peter Neary |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Especially if not compulsory, such changes could even be welcomed by increasingly healthy 65-year olds
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Kevin O'Rourke |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
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By rebalancing PAYG pension systems such reforms reduce the burden of taxes and contributions on young workers. and the implied distortions.
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Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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In addition, more developed private pensions would help.
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Torsten Persson |
Stockholm University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Christopher Pissarides |
London School of Economics and Political Science | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Yes, but - we like our jobs, but there are many who do not, some suffer even from having to work to 65. Raising retirement age is regressive
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Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hélène Rey |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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John Van Reenen |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The benefits for the finances of pay-as-you-go systems are fairly obvious...
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Beatrice Weder di Mauro |
The Graduate Institute, Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Karl Whelan |
University College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Either this or reduced pensions.
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Fabrizio Zilibotti |
Yale University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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