Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  7 

Uncertain  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  1 

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  7 

Disagree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  8 

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Disagree  8 
Arguably it would substantially increase output variability

Strongly Disagree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  5 

Disagree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  3 
Psychology insights are useful for understanding some behaviors. "Important" ones? Perhaps

Strongly Agree  8 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  1 
There are good arguments for admitting refugees, but I haven't seen evidence for this one in this case

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  5 
Holding fixed institutions, wages and labor force participation will fall for some workers, but unemployment will not increase

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  8 
But the caveat is that compensating these workers will further reduce their employment

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  6 
The welfare cost of inflation is the area under the money demand curve. This implies a cost of about $60bn/yr from the proposed policy
see background information here 
Disagree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  6 

Agree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  7 

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  3 

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  6 
Tax smoothing is desirable. The argument for cutting taxes has to be based on cutting spending as well

Disagree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  8 

Agree  8 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Did Not Answer 

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Did Not Answer 

Strongly Disagree  8 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  1 

Disagree  4 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  1 

Disagree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  10 

Strongly Agree  9 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  6 

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Disagree  8 
I can't imagine any argument for how restricting high skilled immigrants would increase tax revenue

Disagree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  5 
I expect some jobs that are currently held by H1Bs would go to nativeborn workers. Many other jobs would move out of the country.

Disagree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  5 
Some local economic benefits are easy to quantify and those are small. But agglomeration effects are harder to measure.

Agree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  6 

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  5 

Disagree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

No Opinion 
This question is uncomfortably selfserving

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Disagree  7 

Strongly Disagree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Disagree  7 

Strongly Disagree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  5 
This is mostly vertical integration, which should reduce double marginalization.

Disagree  4 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  7 

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Disagree  10 

Strongly Disagree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  1 
Obvious effects by shifting supply; however, this will also affect where production takes place, so demand shifts as well

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  7 
Most other workers are complements to those with advanced degrees, hence this will raise the demand for their skills

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  3 

Agree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  7 

Agree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  8 
Simplicity and improvement in some incentives are good. But largely this policy would be redistributive.

Disagree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  4 
I'm pretty sure the 9010 income ratio has been affected, but I'm not sure in which direction and I doubt the magnitude is big.

Uncertain  4 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  8 
It will reduce distortions, but I'm not sure by how much

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  3 

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  1 

Uncertain  4 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  8 
BLS data is essential for the Fed at a minimum. $610 million is 0.003% of US GDP.

Strongly Agree  8 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  8 
Full disclosure: much of my research uses publicly available BLS data.

Strongly Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Disagree  8 
Trade matters for job loss, but toughness in trade negotiations has a small effect on trade.

Disagree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  10 
The one exception is dictatorship, so there is only one voter.
see background information here 
Strongly Agree  8 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  5 
I hesitate only because I'm not sure whether this is necessarily a defect. The rest of the claim is true.

Agree  8 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  6 

Disagree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  6 

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  6 

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  5 

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  2 
There is social value to coordinating activities where there are complementarities. Arguably this is one of them.

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  5 

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  5 
But only two meetings ago, in October

Disagree  6 
Letting publicly traded US firms report earnings annually rather than quarterly would lead their executives to place more weight on longterm issues in their investments and other decisions.
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  3 

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  5 
Quarterly earnings reports make it easier to monitor managers, even if earnings can be manipulated.

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  3 
Likely more informative in some schools than others.

Agree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  1 
There is some evidence that the relationship goes in both directions. Unclear which effect is stronger.

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  5 
It is a good measure, but it is flawed and it is not the only measure.

Uncertain  5 
Expanding health insurance to more people through the ACA’s public subsidies and Medicaid expansion will reduce total healthcare spending in the economy.
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Did Not Answer 

Disagree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Did Not Answer 

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  7 
Assuming inflation stays low. There is substantial evidence that labor demand slopes down, at least in the long run

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Disagree  7 

Disagree  5 
The median Greek citizen will be better off if there is a “yes” vote in the July 5 referendum on whether to accept the terms of the bailout package offered by Greece's creditors.
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  8 
A yes vote leads Greece down a painful path. A no vote will lead down a much worse one, likely Grexit, legal battles, isolation, etc.

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  5 
Exchange rate policy matters because of nominal rigidities and affects on global supply and demand. Identifying these situations is tricky.

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  7 
As usual, there are winners and losers from such policies

Disagree  5 
Behavior in many complex and seemingly intractable strategic settings can be understood more clearly by working out what each party in the game will choose to do if they realize that the other parties will be solving the same problem. This insight has helped us understand behavior as diverse as military conflicts, price setting by competing firms and penalty kicking in soccer.
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  8 

Strongly Agree  8 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  8 
CPI has improved but is imperfect. Capital income matters, especially for retirees. Mean household size has shrunk from around 3.3 to 2.6.

Agree  7 
Californians would be better off on average if all final users in the state paid the same price for water — adjusted for quality, place and time — even if, as a result, some food prices rose sharply and some farms failed.
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  8 
The only question is what "on average" means. One water price would make most Californians better off.

Agree  7 
The Fed should wait until its preferred measure of inflation (Core PCE) is clearly rising — and not just forecast to rise — before it begins hiking interest rates.
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  5 
The Fed should raise rates when forecast inflation is above target. Now the hard question: what forecast is better than current inflation?

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  4 
See Greenstone, Hornbeck, and Moretti (JPE 2010) for some evidence of large positive spillovers

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  5 
There is a clear zerosum aspect to tax competition. But nothing else can restrain the leviathan. The balance is unclear.

Disagree  5 
Declining to be vaccinated against contagious diseases such as measles imposes costs on other people, which is a negative externality.
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  10 

Strongly Agree  9 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  1 

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  10 
If Greece continues to service its debt, outcomes are reasonably forecastable. If it defaults, many different outcomes can happen.

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  10 
This is a very weak statement!

Strongly Agree  9 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  5 
The bounds likely rule out some outcomes but may be very wide

Uncertain  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  5 
It depends on which estimates they used.

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  4 

Agree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  5 
It would be useful to know what fraction of books are rented or resold.

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  7 
But demand may be quite inelastic, since once a book is selected for a course, there are no substitutes.

Disagree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  7 
The US is still a net energy importer and the shock is largely a supply shock. But this will cause some reallocation away from shale

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Did Not Answer 

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  3 

Disagree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  1 

Disagree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  1 

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  3 
Fast track reduces the number of groups that must agree to the trade pact

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  6 

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Disagree  8 
Maybe in the future, certainly not now.

Disagree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  6 

Disagree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Disagree  8 
Trends in U.S. wealth inequality are accounted for by trends in income inequality. See Section 3 of Krugman's review of Piketty.
see background information here 
Disagree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  8 
This is in comparison to banning these services or regulating their price to equal the price of taxis.

Strongly Agree  8 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  3 
Change creates the potential for instability, but a floating currency with good governance could be stabilizing

Agree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  3 

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  7 

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  2 
True for some states, I don't know if it is true for "many" states.

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  8 
Illinois is an obvious example for which this is true.

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Disagree  8 
Fracking will reduce energy imports and hence reduce net exports of other goods. This doesn't mean that fracking is a bad idea!

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  4 
Evidence for Keynesian channels of expansionary fiscal stimulus are weak, but the multiplier should still be positive

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  5 
Cost benefit analysis is tricky here. There were winners and losers. Still it would have been difficult to do nothing

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  7 
Under current Fed leadership, the statement is likely to be false. Under future leadership, accountability might be justifiable.

Disagree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  1 
Patent trolls pay for patents, which encourages innovation, but they obviously also suppress future innovation

Disagree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  1 
Very much a quantitative question.

Uncertain  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  8 
Captured very nicely by the DiamondDybvig (1983) model and others
see background information here 
Agree  8 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Did Not Answer 

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Did Not Answer 

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  3 
Clearly winners and losers from this policy and clearly the market is imperfect. This is a hard call

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  5 
It's hard to argue that markets are mispricing Euro area bonds, but I'm surprised by how strongly the price has recovered

Uncertain  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  5 
Some would get paid substantial salaries. Unclear if median athlete would be helped. There are probably some cross subsidies today.

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  5 
Effectiveness must depend on the openness of the target economy and the uniformity of the application of sanctions

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  7 
The biggest impact would be to increase kidney supply, so few obvious losers from this policy

Uncertain  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  8 
Automation has not reduced net employment, but some workers have lost their jobs due to automation

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  7 
Trade is likely also important for median wages.

Uncertain  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  1 
Very hard to predict this far in the future.

Uncertain  6 
Informed postmortems of Ben Bernanke’s Fed chairmanship will judge favorably the Fed's creative and aggressive policy initiatives from autumn 2008 through early 2009.
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  5 
More subjective than most questions. Likely that economists will disagree about this in the future. But I judge Bernanke's actions favorably

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  10 

Agree  8 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  7 
Many reasons why gifts may be better than cash. Signaling thoughtfulness. Specialized knowledge of giver. Gifts from travels...

Disagree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  5 
For low skill workers, the main adverse effects are through wages. For high skill, through fiscal costs. Both costs could be small

Agree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  5 
Evidence that immigration pushes down low skill wages is mixed

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  9 
Aggregate stock returns have some forecastibility, but this is a question about individual stocks

Strongly Agree  9 