Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  10 
The world is uncertain and even the most careful, conscientious, and skilled people may fail to anticipate some important factors.

Strongly Agree  9 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  8 
The CBO is a serious and reputable agency. I would put a lot of weight on its forecasts, even knowing that some will inevitably be wrong.

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  6 
H1B visa holders pay taxes and so there seems no direct effect. Wages might rise, raising taxes, but profits will fall, reducing them.

Disagree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  6 
There aren't that many H1B visas. Also skilled workers may be complementary to other workers, and so the effect could go the other way.

Disagree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  7 
The evidence suggests that expenditure by tourists is small and that locals who spend more on this sport spend less on other activities.

Agree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  10 
People, probably correctly, expect lower corporate taxes and fewer regulations. Go figure.

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  7 
I see no reason to think that growth will be higher because of Trump's policies, which are probably bad for the economy overall.

Disagree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  5 
I would conjecture yes. Your advice will be better if you can understand the latest thinking and this is more likely if you publish.

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  6 
Many forces are responsible for middleclass people feeling left behind. These policies may make things worse by raising prices of imports.

Strongly Disagree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  6 
Many forces are responsible for workingclass people being left behind, including automation. It is hard to turn the clock back.

Strongly Disagree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  7 
Possible but no reason to think it is likely It may not even be good for the two firms. The merged entity may have too much political power.

Disagree  4 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  5 
It all depends on how much revenue can be raised by increasing taxes on those earning more than 250K. I don't know the answer to this.

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Disagree  10 
Duties lead to deadweight losses and also retaliation.There can be losers from free trade but there are better ways to compensate them.

Strongly Disagree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  7 
This seems very likely. The immigrants are chiefly substitutes for the US scientists. However, some might be complements, offsetting this.

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  7 
A simple free trade argument suggest that the U.S. would gain overall. The problem is that there may be losers as well as winners.

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  8 
A postBrexit agreement between U.K. and E.U. is likely to involve trade barriers. This will reduce gains from trade. The U.K. will suffer.

Agree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  8 
Both sides gain from trade and so the EU will also suffer. The per capita loss is likely to be smaller simply because the EU is bigger.

Agree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Disagree  10 
Bill Gates would get 13K, which is crazy. Raising taxes is costly and so redistribution should be targeted to those who need help most.

Disagree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  5 
Quantitative easing has boosted asset prices, reduced interest rates and lowered unemployment. The overall effect on inequality is unclear.

Uncertain  4 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  7 
I think so. It would be better to count employerbased health insurance as taxable income, but the Cadillac tax is better than nothing.

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  8 
With banks being smaller no single bank's failure would lead to serious contagion or undermine the confidence of investors and depositors.

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  5 
There are benefits of large banks as well as costs. Regulation should include shadow banks and be more flexible than a cap on size.

Uncertain  4 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  8 
The BLS provides data, in an objective and neutral manner, that are essential for policy. Its benefits exceed its costs.

Strongly Agree  8 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  8 
Same answer as before.

Strongly Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  8 
Job losses occur because of automation, energy prices, tastes, as well as trade. A tougher policy could have been worse not better.

Disagree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  10 
We know from Arrow's impossibility theorem that no voting system can aggregate preferences perfectly even if people vote honestly.

Strongly Agree  8 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  10 
46% of people rank 3 candidates A,C,B. ( A first, B last.) 44% rank them B,C,A. 10% rank them C,B,A. Then A wins,but C may be better.

Agree  8 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  7 
Prices may move frequently as speculators try to anticipate the future, but without speculation the movement would be larger when it occurs.

Disagree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  7 
The EU is Britain's most important trade partner. Trade barriers with the EU would rise and this will hurt Britain's investment and growth.
see background information here see background information here 
Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  7 
The value of staying in will fall. Others will also be emboldened to jump for noneconomic,e.g., political and psychological, reasons.

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  6 
As China becomes richer it will resemble other rich countries: growth rates will fall;wages and consumption will rise;investment will fall.

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  5 
There seems to be a social need for public celebrations and gifts. But some are forced to participate.The net benefit is unclear.

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  5 
I don't think so. The recovery is still weak and there are no serious signs of inflation. Also a little inflation may be good.

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  5 
See answer to last question.

Disagree  6 
Letting publicly traded US firms report earnings annually rather than quarterly would lead their executives to place more weight on longterm issues in their investments and other decisions.
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  5 
I am in favor of letting firms do this but only if it is part of their charter or approved by shareholders. It should not be a blanket rule.

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  10 
For some firms it might be better, for others worse. This is not a case where one size fits all.

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  5 
Research by Chetty et al. suggests this is so and I take that seriously. But this is a complex issue and it is early to reach conclusions.

Agree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  8 
Better health can surely increase productivity and hence growth but it is hard to believe that the causation mainly goes this way.

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  5 
It is probably not a great measure unless it incorporates the prices of local goods. Also it misses out on nontraded goods and services.

Uncertain  5 
Expanding health insurance to more people through the ACA’s public subsidies and Medicaid expansion will reduce total healthcare spending in the economy.
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  5 
It could fall as people get more preventative care; or rise as people use doctors more. Some evidence suggests the latter but it's early.

Disagree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  10 
ACA allows ill people to see doctors and provides peace of mind. Both would be negotiated behind the veil of ignorance. Net benefit>0.

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  5 
I worry that it will be but we don't know enough. Firms may raise prices and the Fed may accommodate some inflation. But the change is large

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  5 
If employment not much affected and redistribution to workers demand could rise. But if sizable unemployment opposite could occur.

Disagree  5 
The median Greek citizen will be better off if there is a “yes” vote in the July 5 referendum on whether to accept the terms of the bailout package offered by Greece's creditors.
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  5 
Yes means more of the same for Greece. No means a very uncertain future. But the Euro was a bad idea and should end as soon as possible.

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  5 
The answer depends on whether prices are flexible or sticky,the importance of foreign inputs in domestic goods. So hard to assess welfare.

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  5 
Again it depends on whether prices are flexible or sticky. Also Americans benefit from cheaper Japanese goods. So hard to say.

Disagree  5 
Behavior in many complex and seemingly intractable strategic settings can be understood more clearly by working out what each party in the game will choose to do if they realize that the other parties will be solving the same problem. This insight has helped us understand behavior as diverse as military conflicts, price setting by competing firms and penalty kicking in soccer.
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  10 
Nash equilibrium is enormously useful. But people can be less rational than the theory supposes and so the predictions may be misleading.

Strongly Agree  8 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  5 
Iphones weren't available then suggesting understatement. But both partners often work, which is stressful. This suggests overstatement.

Agree  7 
Californians would be better off on average if all final users in the state paid the same price for water — adjusted for quality, place and time — even if, as a result, some food prices rose sharply and some farms failed.
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  7 
Equal prices imply that all final users will value the last gallon they use the same, which ensures efficiency. Consumer rationing does not.

Agree  7 
The Fed should wait until its preferred measure of inflation (Core PCE) is clearly rising — and not just forecast to rise — before it begins hiking interest rates.
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  7 
The recovery is anemic and I am more concerned that it will fizzle than I am worried about inflation. The Fed should not be too cautious.

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  5 
If it's done carefullythe firms can't get the tax benefits and then leavethis can pay off for a city or state.

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  7 
There is no social benefit to the US as a whole unless the firms would have located abroad. There is a social loss from lower tax receipts.

Disagree  5 
Declining to be vaccinated against contagious diseases such as measles imposes costs on other people, which is a negative externality.
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  10 
The science seems absolutely clear. If you are not vaccincated others are more likely to catch the disease ( as well as you).

Strongly Agree  9 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  10 
Another way to internalize the externality is to make those who don't get vaccinated pay a fine. But a mandate is adminstratively easier.

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  5 
For Greece: default is a plus,exclusion from the EU banking system is a minus it could lead to bank runs and political chaos. Net unclear.

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  10 
Consider an increase of income tax rates to 100%. Reported income would be close to zero after this.

Strongly Agree  9 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  5 
I doubt that we know enough. There are disagreements about the response of labor supply to moderate changes in income tax rates.

Uncertain  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  6 
The estimates would not be perfect but they would be better than assuming no response.

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  7 
My guess is that most pick what they think is the best book (or, of course, their own book) without regard to price.

Agree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  8 
This seems rather selfevident, although perhaps not all students can do this. Some people no doubt also photocopy parts of books.

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  5 
In some fields there will be a prominent book with few competitors. The author has some monopoly power; the equilibrium price may be high.

Disagree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  7 
There are potentially confounding general equilibrium effects but the US as a net importer of oil should benefit from increased fracking.

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  5 
Dealers have highpowered incentives. Winners may celebrate a lot and losers drown their sorrows. Low variance makes economists staid.

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Disagree  10 
A trade surplus means a country is saving, a trade deficit that it is dissaving. As with people each can make sense at different times.

Disagree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  5 
The effects are hard to predict. US corporations might simply repatriate the profits and increase dividends or buy back shares.

Disagree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  5 
US corporations might invest more abroad rather than at home. But comanies might issue equity rather than borrowing, which would be good.

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  7 
If one party can make a takeitor leaveit offer to another party, a deal is often more likely than if bargaining occurs. But not always.

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  7 
Trade deals typically reduce barriers to trade which is likely to produce net gains to the U.S. ( although there can be winners and losers).

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  7 
Classic monopsonists reduce supply; final prices rise. This doesn't describe Amazon.I don't know evidence that book supply is lower.

Disagree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  7 
I don't see evidence that consumers and authors are suffering. The market is fastmoving. Regulators should monitor but be cautious.

Disagree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  5 
I would imagine there are many factors: laborsaving technology, globalization,the decline of unions,lower tax rates.

Disagree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  10 
I don't see any externalities. According to standard economics, competition enhances welfare and I believe that would be true here.

Strongly Agree  8 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  7 
The main uncertainty concerns whether Scotland retains the pound (bad idea) and stays in Europe( good idea). Once resolved things may be OK.

Agree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  10 
I would say increase average welfare rather than income. There are surely many potential projects where the social benefit exceeds
cost.

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  5 
Perhaps sometimes true in the past but I don't think it's inevitable. Projects like the interstate highways are notable exceptions.

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  5 
Many plans are defined benefit. These promise certain benefits, which should be discounted at the riskless interest rate not a higher rate.

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  5 
Probably right. They should shift to defined contribution plans.

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  2 
I agree that energy cost should fall, which will increase U.S. competitiveness. The effects on growth are more subtle, and harder to predict

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  9 
Given that wages/prices are sticky Keynesiantype stimulus will increase economic activity if the economy is not at full employment.

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  9 
Given that infrastructure expenditure was needed this was a good time to do it and so the benefits exceeded any costs.

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  8 
No rules would have allowed the Fed to act appropriately in the recent crisis. Better to choose governors well and give them discretion.

Disagree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  5 
If patents are correctly granted trolls can encourage innovation. if patents are incorrectly granted trolls can impede innovation.

Disagree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  5 
Patents can encourage innovation. But many trivial software patents seem to be granted, which can discourage innovation and hurt consumers.

Uncertain  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  10 
Consumers want liquid and safe securities. Firms' assets are often illiquid. Both sides can benefit if firms issue shares and senior debt.

Agree  8 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  8 
They would earm more if they did not discriminate unless their other workers are prejudiced. But they may survive anyway if they earn rents.

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  5 
Ths substitution effect goes this way, but the income effect can go in the opposite direction: with more income you can afford more children

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  6 
Letting price vary with quality is good if there is enough competition. I don't know if that's true here. If not the answer is less clear.

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  8 
These econonomies still in bad shape. Bond yields high, but Investors may be exuberant and overestimating chance of future bailouts.

Uncertain  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  7 
Since the stakes are high, the incentive to pay top athletes a lot is strong. Preserving equity among students is a small mitigating force.

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  4 
My sense is that economic sanctions were important in ending apartheid in South Africa, and are leading Iran to negotiate with the West.

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  8 
I'd like to see it but I'm not sure the public is ready. Also would insurance cover this? Would people be able to top up (presumably)?

Uncertain  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  7 
There has been temporary displacement but displaced workers have found jobs elsewhere, as theory might predict

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  6 
Unskilled jobs have been lost which may well be a factor, although not the only one, behind stagant median income and increasing inequality

Uncertain  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  10 
Economists are bad at predicting the far future. Technological advances have been amazing in the last few years and anything is possible.

Uncertain  6 
Informed postmortems of Ben Bernanke’s Fed chairmanship will judge favorably the Fed's creative and aggressive policy initiatives from autumn 2008 through early 2009.
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  5 
A policy where the Fed let financial institutions go bankrupt or helped homeowners directly might have been better, but we will never know

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  10 
Consumer plus producer surplus should rise but in the absence of competition consumer surplus may not. With competition consumers will gain.

Agree  8 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  10 
An assistant might prefer cash. For a friend a present that shows that you have thought about what matters to them might mean much more.

Disagree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  8 
On average citizens would be better offby classical gains from trade . A countervailing effect : welfare payments to unemployed immigrants

Agree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  8 
There can be winners and losers. Similarly skilled workers will face greater competition for jobs and their wages may fall.

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  10 
In equilibrium the typical investor cannot beat the market. Thus a welldiversified buy and hold strategy is best for such an investor

Strongly Agree  9 