Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  8 

Agree  8 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  4 

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  3 

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  3 

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  8 
Markets may believe default unlikely over the term of the bonds. That does not mean it is unlikely forever: Greek debt is still huge.

Uncertain  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  8 

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  4 

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  1 

Uncertain  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  5 

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  4 

Uncertain  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  6 

Uncertain  6 
Informed postmortems of Ben Bernanke’s Fed chairmanship will judge favorably the Fed's creative and aggressive policy initiatives from autumn 2008 through early 2009.
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  9 

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  7 
Allocation efficiency improves but there are gainers and losers and a "welfare" assessment depends on how one weights individual outcomes.

Agree  8 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  8 
The judgment would seem to depend on the giver's motivation.

Disagree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  8 

Agree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  7 

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  10 
Literally, "expected" return may be higher than for diversfied basket, despite higher variance. Does "do better" include pain of variance?

Strongly Agree  9 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Disagree  2 

Strongly Disagree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  8 

Agree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

No Opinion 

Disagree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  9 

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  7 

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  10 
One should use reserves to defnd the financial system (notably banks with USD liabilities), not the "currency" (exchange rate) per se.

Disagree  4 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  3 

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  5 

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  8 

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  5 

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  6 

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  6 

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  6 

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  10 
Of course,the tax distortion aspect alone doesn't take account of possible social benefits from charitable giving. It is a narrow criterion.

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

No Opinion 

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  10 
Government vulnerability will depend on the maturity of its debt (more short term debt means more exposure) and the size of its deficit.
see background information here 
Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  9 

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

No Opinion 

Uncertain  4 
Raising the federal minimum wage to $9 per hour would make it noticeably harder for lowskilled workers to find employment.
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  6 

Uncertain  5 
The distortionary costs of raising the federal minimum wage to $9 per hour and indexing it to inflation are sufficiently small compared with the benefits to lowskilled workers who can find employment that this would be a desirable policy.
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  7 

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  10 

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  9 

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Disagree  7 

Disagree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  6 

Uncertain  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  5 
The likely outcome, though the answer depends on relevant elasticities.

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  7 

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  7 

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  5 

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  6 

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  6 

Uncertain  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  7 

Agree  6 
The economic benefits to the U.S. of having a
handful of banks with balance sheets greater than $1 trillion are small.
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  6 

Agree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  6 

Disagree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  5 

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  4 

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  4 

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  10 

Agree  8 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  7 

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  7 

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  7 

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  7 

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  5 

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  9 

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  9 
Depends what you mean by 'consequential.' I doubt there is a chance of inflation as high as 5% before the Fed tightens.

Uncertain  5 
Even if inflationary
pressures rise substantially as a result of quantitative easing and low
interest rates, the Federal Reserve has ample tools to rein inflation back in
if it chooses to do so.
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  8 
Again depends on what 'substantially' means. There is some (uncertain) point at which longterm inflation expectations lose their anchor.

Agree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  2 

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  9 

Strongly Agree  8 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  9 

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  9 
Greece has already defaulted, and its government debt still looks unsustainable.

Disagree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  9 

Uncertain  4 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  8 

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

No Opinion 

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

No Opinion 

Agree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  10 

Agree  8 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  10 

Uncertain  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  10 

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  4 

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  5 

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

No Opinion 

Agree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  9 

Agree  8 
Assuming that Germany eventually agrees to backstop the debt of southern European countries, the eurozone as a whole will be better off if that bailout is unconditional, rather than accompanied by the labor market reforms and future budget controls that Germany is demanding of countries in return.
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  10 

Disagree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  10 

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  10 

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  8 
To be effective the cut should benefit lowerincome consumers. Absent measures to reduce the longtem deficit, crisis risk could be higher.

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  8 

Strongly Disagree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  10 

Agree  8 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  10 

Agree  8 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  8 
While some faculty salaries have risen faster than productivity, these make up a small fraction of total university operating costs.

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  10 

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  8 
In a global market, natural gas prices would fall worldwide helping foreign economies too. USspecific effects depend on market barriers.

Disagree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  4 

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  8 

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  7 

Disagree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

No Opinion 

Disagree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

No Opinion 

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  8 

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

No Opinion 

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  4 

Uncertain  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  4 
This is one major cost but others are possible and it is unclear how to quantify them.

Agree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  7 
Certainly smaller, but "substantrially" smaller is unclear and subjective.

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  7 
Clearly there is a government subsidy element, but its size is hard to quantify, and therefore compare to other factors.

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  9 

Agree  8 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  8 

Agree  8 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  8 

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  4 
This statement reflects my best judgment, based on a range of macroeconomic literature, but it would be difficult to prove beyond a doubt.

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  3 

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  5 
I can imagine different scenarios, and I don't believe there is clearcut empirical evidence.

Agree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  9 

Agree  7 
Taking into account all of the ARRA’s economic consequences — including the economic costs of raising taxes to pay for the spending, its effects on future spending, and any other likely future effects — the benefits of the stimulus will end up exceeding its costs.
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  9 

Uncertain  6 
Local ordinances that limit rent increases for some rental housing units, such as in New York and San Francisco, have had a positive impact over the past three decades on the amount and quality of broadly affordable rental housing in cities that have used them.
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  5 

Disagree  6 
The typical chief executive officer of a publicly traded corporation in the U.S. is paid more than his or her marginal contribution to the firm's value.
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  2 

Uncertain  4 
Mandating that U.S. publicly listed corporations must allow shareholders to cast a nonbinding vote on executive compensation was a good idea.
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  3 

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  9 

Agree  7 
If the US replaced
its discretionary monetary policy regime with a gold standard,
defining a "dollar" as a specific number of ounces of gold, the
pricestability and employment outcomes would be better for the average
American.
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Disagree  10 

Strongly Disagree  8 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  10 

Strongly Agree  9 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  8 
There is a strong efficiency case but there still could be distributional consequences for some.

Strongly Agree  8 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  5 

Strongly Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  8 

Agree  8 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  6 

Agree  5 
Credible assumptions for
inflation, GDP growth and primary budget deficits in Italy imply that either
the DebttoGDP ratio in Italy would increase sharply if Italian
interest rates on 10year government debt remained at the November 30
level of around 7 percent or Italy would lose access to the bond
market.
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  10 
Hard to imagine any feasible austerity plan that would work at 7% or more, given the negative effect on real GDP growth and inflation.

Agree  6 
Absent outside help to deal
with runs, such as a pledge of fiscal support from Germany or an unlimited
commitment by the ECB to buy bonds, there is no spendingandtax plan
Italy can announce that would be credible enough
to hold its interest rates low enough to stabilize its
DebttoGDP ratio.
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  8 
Credibility is the key, so "outside help" to keep borrowing cost down would be a critical element in success of any austerity plan.

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  5 

Strongly Disagree  8 
Federal mandates that
government purchases should be “buy American” unless there are exceptional
circumstances,
such as in the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, have a significant positive impact on U.S. manufacturing employment.
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  8 
I don't think such mandates ever have much impact. In theory they lead the dollar to appreciate, crowding out any positive effect.

Disagree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  7 

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  8 

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  8 
The evidence supports this claim, though one can't infer that stock prices always equal reasonable forecasts of discounted future dividends.

Strongly Agree  8 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  8 
This episode was a classic case of contagious overoptimism.

Disagree  7 
The Chinese government
pursues policies that keep the renminbi's exchange rate vis à vis the dollar
lower than it would be if the currency floated without those policies.
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  10 

Agree  6 
Public school students would receive
a higher quality education if they all had the option of taking the government
money (local, state, federal) currently being spent on their own
education and turning that money into vouchers that they
could use towards covering the costs of any private school or public school of
their choice (e.g. charter schools).
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  3 
The issues and caveats strike me as far too complex for 140 characters.

Uncertain  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  7 
It is doubtful such a small tax increase would materially affect behavior.

Agree  8 
The cumulative budget shortfalls in the US over the next 10 years can be reduced by half (or more) purely by increasing the federal marginal tax rate on ordinary income for those in the top tax bracket.
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  7 
The budget shortfalls are too large to be covered on this income tax base. Both tax and entitlement reform will be needed.

Disagree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Disagree  10 
1% is a huge effect to forecast given (i) modest effect on longterm interest rates and (ii) uncertain effect of longterm rates on activity

Disagree  4 