Question A: A constitutional rule that limits the size of budget deficits that governments can run as a share of GDP is an effective way to impose discipline on a country’s public finances.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Agree
6
Uncertain
7
Question B: Germany’s debt brake is a substantial constraint on vital public investment in physical/digital infrastructure and the green transition.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
6
Agree
7
Comment: Investments do not need to be finances with debt
The fundamental cause of Argentina’s high inflation is unfunded fiscal commitments that are being financed by the central bank.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
10
Agree
7
Question B: Even if Argentina could marshal the resources to make a full switch to using US dollars for domestic transactions, it would substantially increase the volatility of Argentine GDP.
Question A: It is best for society if the management of publicly traded corporations only considers the impact of their decisions on customers, employees, and community members to the extent that these effects feedback to affect shareholder wealth.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Agree
9
Disagree
6
Question B: The typical chief executive officer of a publicly traded corporation is paid more than his or her marginal contribution to the firm's value.
Question A: By enabling women’s life choices about education, work and family, the contraceptive pill made a substantial contribution to closing gender gaps in the labor market for professionals.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Agree
7
Question B: Gender gaps in today’s labor market arise less from differences in educational and occupational choices than from the differential career impact of parenthood and social norms around men's and women’s roles in childrearing.
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Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Agree
7
Question C: The gender gap in pay would be substantially reduced if firms had fewer incentives to offer disproportionate rewards to individuals who work long and/or inflexible hours.
Question A: The EU's taxonomy for sustainable activities - a classification system that defines criteria for economic activities that are aligned with a net zero trajectory by 2050 and the broader environmental goals other than climate - is an effective way to steer greener investment and the energy transition by firms and financial institutions.
Comment: The EU taxonomy is a bit like the old Yahoo search engine: a set of categories and subcategories. It freezes a hugely changing reality at a moment in time. It will steer investment ,but I fear it will be too rigid and arbitrage ridden.
Question B: Use of the EU taxonomy for sustainable activities is likely to stifle important innovations, including in green technology.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Agree
7
Uncertain
5
Comment: Again, it has to do with the fact that what may appear to the legislator brown at some point may be able to become green in ways that the legislation did not envisage.
Question C: On balance, use of the taxonomy in EU directives and regulation is likely to be net beneficial to European citizens.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
8
Uncertain
6
Comment: I think the EU needs to reconsider this approach. We have a very good alternative: a price system, the ETS together with CBAM, that allows us to tax Carbon. Private investment is much more likely to be efficiently incentivized by having to pay a price for CO2.
Question A: Fiscal rules on budget deficits and public debt levels are an essential part of a sound fiscal framework.
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Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Uncertain
7
Question B: Since the inception of the Stability and Growth Pact, budget deficits in Europe have been measurably lower, on average, than would have been the case without common budget rules.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Uncertain
7
Question C: Since the inception of the Stability and Growth Pact, the path of GDP growth in Europe has been measurably more stable than would have been the case without common budget rules.
Question A: A significant factor behind today’s inflation in Europe is dominant corporations in uncompetitive markets taking advantage of their market power to raise prices in order to increase their profit margins.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Disagree
6
Question B: A significant factor behind today’s inflation in some sectors of the European economy is dominant corporations in uncompetitive markets taking advantage of their market power to raise prices in order to increase their profit margins.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Uncertain
6
Question C: A significant factor behind today’s inflation in some sectors of the European economy (both competitive and concentrated) is distortions in the aggregate economy where supply does not meet demand.
Question A: If countries could impose a ban on the use of ChatGPT and similar generative AI chatbot services that is technologically effective, they would experience a measurably negative impact on national innovation.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
9
Agree
6
Comment: This is a general purpose technology that has the potential to generate a wide range of innovations in many fields, as well as increasing labor productivity in knowledge-based occupations.
Question B: Regardless of whether advances in AI spur productivity growth, they are likely to create deep challenges for society – in areas from labor markets to politics, and including disinformation, privacy, crime, and warfare – that will be difficult to anticipate, plan for, and contain.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
8
Agree
6
Comment: The consequences for political discourse (fake news etc) as well as for labor markets zee most inmediate and almost certain, even without taking into account the larger concerns some experts in neural networks express
Question A: Use of artificial intelligence over the next ten years will lead to a substantial increase in the growth rates of real per capita income in the US and Western Europe over the subsequent two decades.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Uncertain
5
Question B: Use of artificial intelligence over the next ten years will have a substantially bigger impact on the growth rates of real per capita income in the US and Western Europe over the subsequent two decades than the internet has had over the past two decades.
Question A: Preserving the financial viability of France's state pension system is better achieved by raising the effective retirement age than by raising contributions while working.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Agree
7
Question B: Preserving the financial viability of France's state pension system is better achieved by raising the effective retirement age than by reducing benefits once retired.
At this point, there is little that the European Central Bank can do to increase or maintain output in the Eurozone.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Uncertain
7
Question B: When the economy is operating below its potential, larger fiscal deficits are likely to increase demand and output.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Agree
7
Question C: When the economy is operating below its potential and monetary policy is at the effective lower bound, fiscal policy should prioritize increasing output over decreasing public debt.
Selecting candidates for membership of the ECB Executive Board based primarily on nationality ahead of competence is likely to have a negative effect on the quality of monetary policy in the Eurozone.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Agree
8
Question B: Although the central bank can never be an entirely technocratic institution, the selection process for the ECB President and members of the Executive Board is significantly worsened by intergovernmental trade-offs involving appointments to other European institutions.
On bids for infrastructure projects, the average European would be better off if Europe’s governments favored European firms over Chinese firms (or firms from any other country with non-profit-related geopolitical strategies) — even if it means sometimes choosing a higher-cost bidder.
Question A: Breaking the “doom loop” — a negative spiral that can result when banks hold sovereign bonds and governments bail out banks — would increase the stability of European economies in the event of another financial crisis.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Agree
8
Question B: Regulators should try to break the doom loop by assigning positive risk weights — in calculating banks’ capital requirements — to banks’ holdings of domestic and other Eurozone sovereign bonds.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Agree
8
Question C: Breaking the doom loop would impose substantial costs on powerful political constituencies.
Residents of big European cities would be better off, on balance, if governments did more to counter gentrification, for example by using rent and other housing subsidies, public housing investments, zoning regulations, or similar policies.
Question A: A common European deposit insurance scheme, once fully implemented, would increase the stability of European economies in the event of another financial crisis.
Question A: Overall, public spending on the arts in Europe creates benefits that exceed the deadweight loss caused by taxation to fund it.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Uncertain
5
Question B: Additional public spending on the arts in Europe would create incremental benefits that exceed the deadweight loss caused by taxation to fund it.
Question A: The average European is better off if Europe’s competition authorities let firms merge into European champions in their sectors, even it weakens competition.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Disagree
7
Question B: If China and other countries use policies that create giant international firms, then the average European is better off if Europe's competition authorities let firms merge into European champions in their sectors, even it weakens competition.
Question A: Letting publicly traded European firms report earnings annually rather than quarterly would lead their executives to place more weight on long-term issues in their investments and other decisions.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Uncertain
5
Question B: A switch from quarterly to annual earnings reports would, on net, benefit shareholders of European firms.
Question A: To the extent that public corporations pursue social and environmental initiatives, they tend to achieve higher risk-adjusted (private) returns than otherwise similar corporations that pursue such initiatives less.
Question A: The fiscal rules of the European Union should give more flexibility to member countries.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Uncertain
6
Question B: The Italian budget for 2019 that the European Commission rejected in October would have increased Italy’s risk of fiscal insolvency substantially.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Agree
7
Question C: If France runs a 2019 budget deficit of around 3.4% of GDP, as announced by President Macron’s government, France’s risk of fiscal insolvency will increase substantially.
Question A: Capping the number of ride-sharing drivers as is being discussed in New York City, Chicago and London will make the average resident in that city worse off.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Uncertain
7
Question B:
To achieve a given level of congestion, it would be better to use taxes for driving that vary based on the level of congestion, rather than limiting the number of ride-sharing vehicles.
People who migrated to Europe between 2015 and 2018 are likely — over the next two decades — to contribute more in taxes paid than they receive in benefits and public services.
Question A: The European Commission has proposed new rules to ensure that “digital business activities are taxed in a fair and growth-friendly way in the EU”. Consider two statements regarding this proposal:
An EU-wide 3% tax on revenue from digital activities would, on balance, be a good idea.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Uncertain
5
Question B:
If the EU decides to tax digital service providers, it would be better — given the difficulties of measuring and verifying digital activity — to tax them on the revenue, rather than the profits, that they generate locally.
The European Union often uses its antitrust powers to protect EU-based firms from international competition, rather than to promote greater competition in European markets.
Question A: Trade with China makes most Europeans better off because, among other advantages, they can buy goods that are made or assembled more cheaply in China.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
9
Agree
8
Question B: Some Europeans who work in the production of competing goods, such as clothing and furniture, are made worse off by trade with China.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
1
Agree
7
Question C: If the EU followed the new US steel tariffs by imposing similar EU tariffs on steel from China, it would improve Europeans’ welfare.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Disagree
9
Strongly Disagree
7
Comment: (1) China retaliation and inevitable escalation
(2) destroying rule based-trade, where disputes are settled by WTO norms and "courts"
Question A: Assuming it exits its third bailout program this summer without an immediate restructuring or other debt relief, Greece is unlikely to default on its sovereign debt in the coming decade.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Uncertain
6
Question B: Greece would be better off if it had decided to exit the euro between 2011 and 2015.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Disagree
7
Question C: If Greece had defaulted on (or restructured) its private debt in 2010, while also staying within the euro, that combination would have been better for Greece than either exiting the euro or proceeding as it has actually done.
The US spends roughly 17% of GDP on healthcare, according to the OECD; most European countries spend less than 12% of GDP.
Higher quality-adjusted US healthcare prices contribute relatively more to the extra US spending than does the combination of higher quantity and quality of US care (interpreting quantity and quality to reflect both greater American healthcare needs due to underlying population health and the delivery of more or better healthcare services to Americans).
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
10
Uncertain
6
Comment: Prices are obviously key. But even more important is overtreament, due to both carrots (fee per service) and sticks (personal liability)
Over the past two years, all else equal, the appeal of the US as a destination for immigrants has changed in ways that will likely decrease innovation in the US economy.
Holding other policies fixed, the average European would be better off if every European country taxed corporate profits at a rate of 20% (based as closely as possible on a common definition of profits).
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Agree
7
Disagree
6
Comment: Base harmonization is key. Current chaos is inefficient (encourages tax arbitrage) and unfair (profit shifting leads to absurdly low rates)
Question B: If other policies were held fixed and every European country taxed corporate profits at a common rate of 20%, then reducing that common rate substantially below 20% would make the average European better off.
Question A: All else equal, if corporations throughout Europe set quotas for a minimum number of women board members, the shareholder value of European companies would increase.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
5
Uncertain
5
Comment: Positive: breaking open old boys network, fairer promotions, visibility of mentors. Negative: choice set is more restricted
Question B: Taking into account the likely effects on investments in human capital by men and women, setting quotas throughout Europe for a minimum number of women board members would generate substantial net benefits for Europeans.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Agree
6
Uncertain
5
Comment: Increased diversity eads to more equality of opportunity in society and better decisions (taking better into account all preferences)
Question A: Subsidizing renewable energy sources is better than taxing fossil fuels, assuming the subsidy or tax would be set at levels that would reduce carbon emissions by an equivalent amount.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Disagree
6
Question B: Germany’s solar-energy subsidies to date have produced net social benefits for Germany.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Disagree
5
Question C: Solar-energy subsidies to date in Germany and other countries have produced net social benefits for the world.
Insights from psychology about individual behavior – examples of which include limited rationality, low self-control, or a taste for fairness – predict several important types of observed market outcomes that fully-rational economic models do not.
The influx of refugees into Germany beginning in the summer of 2015 will generate net economic benefits for German citizens over the succeeding decade.
Question A: Holding labor market institutions and job training fixed, rising use of robots and artificial intelligence is likely to increase substantially the number of workers in advanced countries who are unemployed for long periods.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Uncertain
6
Question B: Rising use of robots and artificial intelligence in advanced countries is likely to create benefits large enough that they could be used to compensate those workers who are substantially negatively affected for their lost wages.
Question A: Consumers will be better off, on balance, if European cities treat firms that provide ride-sharing platforms (such as Uber) as substantively different from taxi firms, and thus not necessarily warranting the same regulation.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Uncertain
6
Question B: Assuming that taxi and ride-sharing companies were treated as substantively similar — including requirements that they operate on an equal footing regarding safety, insurance and taxation — letting ride-sharing services compete without restrictions on prices or routes would raise consumer welfare.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Agree
7
Question C: Regardless of how ride-sharing services are treated, existing regulations for traditional taxi firms in many European cities harm consumers by limiting competition.
Question A: Revising France’s labor market policies — by reducing employment protection, decentralizing labor negotiations to the firm level, and making training programs more accessible and responsive to labor demands — would, all else equal, increase productivity in France’s economy.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
8
Agree
7
Comment: My own research (with Van Reenen and Lelarge) shows size dependent labour regulations make it hard for productive firms to grow -see background information here
Question B: Reducing employment protection would reduce the equilibrium unemployment rate in France.
Question A: The ECB's asset purchases over the past two years have reduced the threat of deflation in the euro area as a whole.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Agree
7
Question B: If the economic outlook in the euro area becomes less favorable, then increasing the ECB's asset purchase program (in size or duration) would substantially increase the euro area's economic growth over the following five years.
In general, absent any inside information, an equity investor can expect to do better by holding a well-diversified, low-fee, passive index fund than by holding a few stocks.
Question A: Without changes in policy, a rising share of people who are over age 65 will exert a substantial downward influence on per capita real GDP in western European countries.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
8
Agree
7
Question B: In European countries where the share of those over 65 is rising, there are net social benefits to adjusting retirement ages for state-financed (including pay-as-you-go) pension systems upwards, so that revised retirement ages better reflect longer life expectancies.
Question A: All else equal, there are substantial advantages to having much of
Europe’s human capital and infrastructure for international financial activity
clustered in a single city, as they are at present in London.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
5
Agree
7
Comment: There exist some agglomeration economies. It is unclear however how substantial they are, with ICT playing a growing role in Finance
Question B: All else equal, Britain’s rules on hiring, firing and working hours are significantly more conducive to financial activity than those in other large European countries.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
8
Agree
7
Comment: The legal environment, safe, fast and low cost in the UK, is key. This goes beyond labor costs into Secutities and IPO cost etc.
Question A: Setting the EU rules aside, and assuming it would take 2.5% of Italy’s GDP to recapitalize its banks, the Italian government would improve financial stability in Europe if it injected this amount of public funds into its banks.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Agree
7
Comment: A bailout is probably good in short term for Financial Stability. But undermines new Euro BRRD framework and opens door to populists. -see background information here
Question B: If Italy were to inject public funds into its banks without imposing losses on at least some claimants, an important cost would be the effect on future incentives (economic or political) in Europe.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Agree
6
Agree
8
Comment: At the very least it would introduce confusion among investors as the BRRD framework requires 8% bail in.
Question A: Because of the Brexit vote's outcome, the UK's real per-capita income level is likely to be lower a decade from now than it would have been otherwise.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Agree
8
Question B: Because of the Brexit vote's outcome, the rest of the EU's real per-capita income level is likely to be lower a decade from now than it would have been otherwise.
In general, using more congestion charges in crowded transportation networks — such as higher tolls during peak travel times in cities, and peak fees for airplane takeoff and landing slots — and using the proceeds to lower other taxes would make citizens on average better off.
On the whole, the shift from state to private ownership of many industrial assets in central and eastern European countries after communism has increased productivity in those countries.
Question A: Freer movement of goods and services across borders within Europe has made the average western European citizen better off since the 1980s.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
9
Strongly Agree
8
Question B: Freer movement of goods and services across borders within Europe has made many low-skilled western European citizens worse off since the 1980s.
Question A: Giving tax incentives to specific firms to locate operations in a country typically generates domestic benefits that outweigh the costs to the country providing the incentives.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Uncertain
6
Question B: Europe as a whole benefits when European cities or countries compete with each other by giving tax incentives to firms to locate operations in their jurisdictions.
Question A: Freer movement of people to live and work across borders within Europe has made the average western European citizen better off since the 1980s.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
9
Agree
8
Question B: Freer movement of people to live and work across borders within Europe has made many low-skilled western European citizens worse off since the 1980s.